Pepperoni Show #25: о фарминге перпов, Hyperliquid vs Extended, инсайдерской торговле Ирана и AGI

Summary

• Perpetuals farming remains a core strategy: Ivan farms Extended (long BTC/ETH) and Ethereal (short BTC) for points and funding yield, targeting ~20%+ annualized returns despite low expectations for the underlying tokens.
• Hyperliquid is the perceived market leader: It captured the TradFi (oil, gold) narrative first, has strong execution, and benefits from a supportive community, though its ecosystem development is seen as slow.
• Extended has a niche advantage but faces growth hurdles: It offers better execution prices on BTC/ETH pairs than Hyperliquid and has zero fees, but suffers from weak marketing, a limited asset selection, and stagnant user metrics.
• Lighter is struggling with its business model: Its zero-fee structure is less attractive in a bear market with low retail volume; it faces liquidity issues and negative sentiment from Hyperliquid's community.
• Macro risks dominate the outlook: The Iran-US conflict threatens oil supply via the Strait of Hormuz, risking sustained high oil prices (~$100+), global inflation, and potential central bank rate hikes, which could trigger a recession.
• AI disruption presents a systemic risk: Advances in AI coding (e.g., Claude) threaten white-collar jobs, which could reduce consumer spending and lead to a recession, while also compressing equity valuation multiples (P/E ratios).
• Quantum computing poses a long-term threat to Bitcoin: Google's claimed 20x+ efficiency gains in quantum operations raise the risk of breaking Bitcoin's encryption by 2029-2031, particularly endangering inactive/"Satoshi" wallets.
• Regulatory uncertainty persists: The Clarity Act's passage is hindered by bank lobbying against allowing stablecoin issuers to offer yield, fearing deposit flight; its failure could delay crypto regulatory clarity.
• Developer talent is fleeing to AI: The crypto industry is experiencing a brain drain as developers and new graduates pursue opportunities in AI, stifling innovation and project development within crypto.
• Prediction markets offer a novel yield source: Platforms like Polymarket offer ~4% APY (paid in stablecoins) on long-dated prediction market positions (e.g., US elections, FIFA World Cup), creating a carry opportunity.
• The ideological promise of crypto is fading: The focus has shifted from privacy, decentralization, and alternative financial systems to integration with TradFi and speculation, leading to disappointment among early proponents.
• Distant limit orders on perp DEXs can capture market dislocations: Placing far-from-market limit orders (e.g., BTC buy orders at $50k during a crash) can yield significant profits during extreme volatility or liquidity events.