Takaichi's Rearmament vs. Xi's Resource Blockade... What Is Sandwiched Korea's Escape Route? | Jeon Byeong-seo, Director of China Economic and Financial Research Institute

다카이치의 재무장 vs 시진핑의 자원 봉쇄... 샌드위치 한국의 탈출구는?ㅣ전병서 중국경제금융연구소 소장 [심층인터뷰]
Watch on YouTube ↗  |  January 13, 2026 at 10:19  |  56:31  |  3PRO TV (삼프로TV)
Speakers
Jeon Byeong-seo — Director

Summary

Jeon Byeong-seo, Director of the China Economic and Financial Research Institute, joins host Yeo Do-hoon to analyze the Japan-China-US strategic conflict, Takaichi's rearmament push, Xi's resource leverage, and Korea's supply-chain dilemma. He argues China's rare-earth control is a durable choke point, Chinese equities and AI/semiconductor stocks are attractive, and Korea's memory-chip duo remains a key beneficiary of AI demand. The discussion also covers China's 2026 domestic-demand policy, Japan's need for specific earnings stories, and risks around Taiwan, tariffs, and Korean battery supply chains.

  • Japan-China tensions are framed as part of a broader US-China power struggle, with Japan seeking rearmament and China using trade and resource leverage.
  • China's rare-earth processing dominance is described as a long-term US vulnerability with no quick substitute.
  • China's 2026 policy is expected to prioritize growth, domestic demand, and investment-in-people services such as education and eldercare.
  • Chinese equities and AI/semiconductor stocks are highlighted as relatively cheap and increasingly led by domestic tech champions.
  • Korea's semiconductor strength, especially Samsung Electronics and SK hynix, is presented as a key national advantage and foreign-investor destination.
  • The speaker cautions that Japan requires specific earnings stories rather than a broad recovery trade, and that Taiwan conflict, tariffs, and Korean battery-supply dependence remain risks.
  • The interview ends with a discussion of information advantage and deeper research in a noisy market.
Ideas
China rare-earth leverage remains durable.
China's dominance in rare-earth processing is a durable strategic choke point: the US abandoned rare-earth production and processing in the 1990s and cannot substitute within five years, even if it develops new mines. This gives China lasting leverage and keeps rare-earth supply risk elevated.
Korea memory chips uniquely positioned.
Korea is uniquely positioned in the AI semiconductor supply chain because it has both technology and manufacturing capacity, while the US lacks production, China lacks advanced technology, and Japan lacks both. Foreign investors buying Korea are focused on Samsung Electronics and SK hynix, and China's shift of legacy capacity to advanced chips has tightened memory supply, supporting DRAM and HBM pricing.
KOSPI can reach 5,000.
The KOSPI could reach 5,000 if Samsung Electronics' profits expand dramatically. The Korean index is effectively leveraged to the semiconductor cycle and Samsung/SK hynix earnings, so the index can rise much further if memory profits are strong.
Shift exposure to undervalued Chinese equities.
China is prioritizing 2026 growth and domestic-demand policy to legitimize Xi's fourth term, and Chinese equities remain cheap after four years of underperformance relative to the US and Korea. The AI and semiconductor rally, strong exports, and weak real estate are pushing household funds into the stock market, so investors should shift relative exposure toward Chinese equities while avoiding real estate.
Shift exposure to undervalued Chinese equities.
China is prioritizing 2026 growth and domestic-demand policy to legitimize Xi's fourth term, and Chinese equities remain cheap after four years of underperformance relative to the US and Korea. The AI and semiconductor rally, strong exports, and weak real estate are pushing household funds into the stock market, so investors should shift relative exposure toward Chinese equities while avoiding real estate.
China AI chip stocks leading.
China's equity rally is being led by AI and semiconductors, not by the broad economy. SMIC, a key sanctioned chipmaker, and Hua Hong Semiconductor have hit record highs, and Chinese semiconductor equipment names are also strong, indicating domestic substitution and self-sufficiency momentum despite US restrictions.
China education/eldercare services benefit.
China's new investment-in-people policy emphasizes full-lifecycle services including education and elderly care, which should create jobs and boost domestic-demand growth. This is a narrower consumer-services opportunity distinct from general consumer goods.
Japanese trading houses on commodity story.
Investing in Japan requires a specific earnings story because GDP growth is below 1%. Warren Buffett's large purchases of Itochu, Mitsui, and other Japanese general trading companies were a bet on commodity and metals price increases during the Ukraine war. In the Takaichi era, investors should similarly bet on specific Japanese winners from the China conflict rather than a broad recovery.
Up Next

This 3PRO TV (삼프로TV) video, published January 13, 2026, features Jeon Byeong-seo discussing REMX, 005930.KS, 000660.KS, EWY, Shanghai Composite, China real estate sector, 0981.HK, 1347.HK, CHIQ, China education services, China elderly care services, 8001.T, 8031.T, Japanese general trading companies. 8 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Jeon Byeong-seo  · Tickers: REMX, 005930.KS, 000660.KS, EWY, Shanghai Composite, China real estate sector, 0981.HK, 1347.HK, CHIQ, China education services, China elderly care services, 8001.T, 8031.T, Japanese general trading companies