Quincy Institute's Trita Parsi on Why Regime Change in Iran Is Harder Than Many Think

Summary

Trita Parsi discusses the Iranian regime's response to protests, US and Israeli pressure for military action, and why regime change in Iran would be more complicated than in Iraq or Libya. He argues that power is dispersed, a successor could be more hard-line, and Iran could retaliate against US bases or disrupt the Strait of Hormuz. The main market implication is a potential oil-supply risk through the Strait of Hormuz, even without direct attacks on ships.

• Iran has used severe force and an internet blackout to suppress protests, but underlying grievances remain.
• Parsi says US strike plans predate the protests and are not primarily about protecting protesters.
• Israel is pushing the US toward full military action to degrade Iran's regional capabilities.
• Iran's dispersed power structure makes regime change harder than in Iraq, Libya, or Venezuela.
• If the regime falls, the replacement could be a more hard-line element rather than a democracy.
• Iran may retaliate against US bases, and its missiles have tested Israeli and US air defenses.
• Strait of Hormuz transit risk could stop ships through high insurance costs and damage oil markets.
• Trump is expected to decide within 48 hours whether to strike or find an exit.