Nouriel Roubini Sees a Tech-Led US ‘Productivity Revolution’

Summary

Nouriel Roubini argues that AI and other frontier technologies are driving a US-led productivity revolution that could lift potential growth toward 4% by 2030. He says tech-driven gains should outweigh policy and geopolitical drags, supporting American exceptionalism and medium-term equity returns, though he acknowledges frothiness and correction risk in AI-related mega-caps. He also expects China to benefit from the US-China technology race rather than it being zero-sum.

• Roubini sees US potential growth rising from 1.8% toward as high as 4% by 2030.
• He cites accelerating productivity and about 15% growth in S&P 500 real revenue per worker since ChatGPT launched.
• He argues technology's ~200 bps upside outweighs ~50 bps of policy drags, so tech trumps tariffs.
• He downplays geopolitical risks from Israel-Iran, Venezuela, Russia-Ukraine, and US-China tensions.
• He warns of frothiness and correction risk in AI but sees possible AGI in 3-5 years.
• He says 3-4 Magnificent Seven firms could reach AGI and be worth up to 5x current value.
• He expects China to do well too, viewing the tech race as not zero-sum.
• He says corporate profitability remains strong as productivity outpaces real wages.