China's economy isn't very good, but 'is good enough for Xi': China Beige Book CEO Leland Miller

Summary

Leland Miller, CEO of China Beige Book, tells Squawk Box that China's Q4 and 2025 economy was thoroughly mediocre and that 2026 is likely more of the same with additional weakness, though not a collapse. He says consumption is very weak, export growth faces rising political frictions, and large stimulus is unlikely because Beijing sees the economy as good enough and some weak data reflect statistical normalization. He cautions against reading strength in AI and advanced technology as evidence of broad economic improvement.

• Leland Miller discusses China Beige Book's Q4 data and 2026 China outlook.
• China's economy is described as thoroughly mediocre rather than collapsing.
• Official Chinese data have been smoothed and normalized, especially fixed asset investment.
• Consumption is weak and trade-in programs have pulled forward demand.
• Exports face rising political frictions and cannot be a permanent growth driver.
• Miller says big stimulus is unlikely because Xi views the economy as good enough.
• AI and advanced technology excitement does not signal broad China recovery.
• Main implication: China macro remains stressed and unattractive, but not in acute collapse.