The World's Best AI Investor Just Got Wiped Out
Speakers
Josh Kale
— Co-Host, Limitless Podcast (Bankless)
Ejaaz Ahamadeen
— Co-Host, Limitless Podcast (Bankless)
Summary
The hosts discuss rumors that Leopold Aschenbrenner's AI-focused fund is facing massive drawdowns and forced liquidations. They then cover Ilya Sutskever's Safe Superintelligence partnering with NVIDIA, an AI researcher petition to slow development, and Anthropic's open-source debate. Trading ideas include a strong bull case for GPUs via NVIDIA, and bullish earnings-driven views on Microsoft, Samsung, Intel/AMD, and Apple.
- Leopold Aschenbrenner's fund reportedly down 30-50%, liquidating positions including an Anthropic stake.
- Safe Superintelligence (SSI) announces a strategic partnership and investment from NVIDIA, aiming to 10x compute within 12 months.
- Over 1,300 AI researchers signed a letter asking the US government to pace AI development due to recursive self-improvement fears.
- Anthropic advocates restricting chip exports to China, cracking down on model distillation, and mandatory safety frameworks.
- Dwarkesh's contrarian piece argues GPU and compute value will only go up as high-value AI intelligence scales.
- Microsoft earnings beat strongly, Azure cloud revenue up 43%, stock up 15%.
- Samsung memory business thriving with long-term supply agreements despite the stock selling off.
- Intel and AMD benefit from rising CPU demand tied to AI agent infrastructure; Apple becomes the most valuable company, poised for on-device AI growth.
Ideas
GPUs will only go up in value.
The value of high-quality AI intelligence per token is going to keep going up, and because GPUs are the scarce resource that runs that intelligence, the value of GPUs will also only go up. Locking in rental compute now is a good idea because supply is limited while demand for intelligence is potentially infinite, driving GPU prices higher.
Microsoft cloud and AI business booming.
Microsoft reported $90 billion in revenue, beat earnings estimates handily, and its Azure cloud revenue grew 43% year-over-year, driving a 15% stock jump. AI demand is boosting cloud businesses and profit margins look impressive.
Samsung memory demand locked in long-term.
Samsung's memory business is doing extremely well despite the stock dumping. They are signing long-term agreements with customers, effectively locking in memory supply out to 2027–2028, which signals very strong future demand.
CPU demand from AI agents benefits Intel/AMD.
AI agents will require a lot of CPU infrastructure, where Intel and AMD are the number one providers. Both companies reported a strong quarter, profit margins are rising because of AI, and they are well positioned even though the stocks have been volatile.
Apple dominates on-device AI inference future.
Apple became the world's most valuable company, Siri is set to become incredible, upcoming devices like the iPhone Fold will be amazing, and Apple is in a uniquely strong position for running local AI inference on-device, setting it up for continued growth.
