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16:30
Sep 03
Sep 03
Pablo Gil
1h
Global sovereign long-duration bonds
UK 10-Year Gilt
German 10-year Bund
French 10-year OAT
Japanese 10-year JGB
▾
HIGH
Global long-term sovereign yields breaking higher.
Long-term sovereign yields are rising simultaneously across major developed economies, so this is not one country's problem. The sovereign bond is the base price of money for mortgages, corporate financing, real estate credit and equity valuations. The market is questioning future debt volume, inflation persistence and government credibility, not just central bank policy.
Global sovereign long-duration bonds SHORT
UK gilts target higher yields.
The UK 10-year gilt yield has broken 4.85% and is approaching 5%, a level where the market starts to question how long the government can sustain high deficits before interest payments absorb a growing share of the budget. Technical structure points to targets near the 6.5% area, leaving gilts vulnerable to further price declines.
UK 10-Year Gilt SHORT
German bund yields target 4%.
Germany's 10-year bund yield has exceeded 3%, after years when investors accepted negative yields for safety. The chart structure points to additional rises toward 4%, so Bund prices remain vulnerable.
German 10-year Bund SHORT
French OAT yields approaching 4%.
France's 10-year OAT yield has broken above 3.55-3.60% and is approaching 4%. The market is pricing persistent deficits, public debt above 110% of GDP and political difficulty adjusting spending, so OAT prices face continued pressure.
French 10-year OAT SHORT
Japanese JGB yields rising sharply.
Japan is the most spectacular regime change: after decades of zero rates, deflation and massive BOJ debt purchases, the 10-year JGB yield approaches 3% while 20- and 30-year yields are near or above 4%. Longer maturities are commanding a higher premium, signaling further JGB price weakness.
Japanese 10-year JGB SHORT
Japanese 30-year JGB SHORT
US long Treasuries breaking higher yields.
The US 30-year Treasury yield has broken above 5.2%, clearing a multi-year resistance zone. Long maturities embed inflation, fiscal risk, term premium and uncertainty about lending for decades; the market is demanding more compensation to lock up money long-term. That is the cleanest message of rising long-end yields.
TLT SHORT
Avoid expensive AI-linked equities.
AI can transform the economy, but some AI-linked equities may deliver disappointing returns if investors paid too much for them. The higher the valuation and the greater the sensitivity to a rising discount rate, the more risk those companies face.
High-valuation AI stocks AVOID
Avoid excessive bond duration.
Rising yields hurt existing long-duration bondholders but improve expected returns for new buyers. Since the adjustment may not be over and yields may break new resistance, investors should distinguish earning an attractive coupon from taking excessive duration.
Long-duration government bonds AVOID
Avoid debt-heavy real estate/infrastructure.
AI is becoming an unexpected competitor for capital, electricity, land and financing capacity. Highly indebted traditional real estate and infrastructure projects will need to prove sufficient returns to survive a higher cost of money, leaving the sector exposed.
Listed real estate and infrastructure AVOID
Gold favorable long-term; buy corrections.
The combination of growing debt, persistent deficits and doubts about fiat currencies remains favorable for gold over the long term. However, spikes in real yields can produce important short-term corrections that may become big buying opportunities.
GLD LONG
HIGH
16:28
Sep 03
Sep 03
CNBC
1h
TSLA
▾
MED
Cybercab deployment evidence key for Tesla stock
Tesla's Austin Cybercab event is a key stock catalyst because Morgan Stanley's Tesla analyst said tangible evidence of commercial deployment tends to be an important differentiator for Tesla stock performance at past events; with the stock already up about 28% over the past month from under $300, the reaction depends on whether Elon Musk provides concrete deployment markers rather than just influencer demos.
TSLA WATCH
MED
16:10
Sep 03
Sep 03
SPY
BNO
WTI
FXY 1ST
CAD 1ST
▾
HIGH
Earnings keep equity bull market intact.
The primary equity uptrend remains intact because earnings will ultimately support the market; valuations have reset lower while earnings estimates keep being revised higher, and a single quarter-point Fed move is manageable, whereas a series of hikes would be the real risk.
SPY LONG
Iran escalation keeps oil risk premium.
The ongoing Iran conflict places repeated upward pressure on oil prices, and the chance of escalation rises after the midterms as political pressure fades; global spare capacity keeps prices around the $90s rather than $120 or higher, but low inventories and stretched diesel markets keep the risk premium persistent.
BNO WATCH
WTI WATCH
BOJ hikes will strengthen yen.
BOJ rate hikes are the only sustainable way left to reverse yen weakness; officials are expected to signal a more aggressive hiking path, which is driving an unwind of extreme yen short positions and supports further yen strength.
FXY LONG
CAD and CHF become carry funders.
A larger yen carry unwind would shift funding to currencies where central banks are least likely to hike; she thinks the Canadian dollar and Swiss franc become the next preferred carry funders, implying they should weaken.
CAD SHORT
CHF SHORT
Buy Brazil real after election risk.
She likes the Brazilian real as a long-term carry trade but would wait until after the second round of the presidential election because headline risk makes the period before every election the worst time to be long.
BRL WATCH
South African rand has more upside.
South African rand is a favored carry currency for clients because it has more room to outperform, is well diversified by commodities, and benefits from ticking commodity prices.
ZAR LONG
Mexican peso is too crowded.
The Mexican peso is looking crowded, implying less attractive risk/reward and vulnerability relative to other carry currencies.
MXN AVOID
Hated bonds are attractive now.
Bonds are deeply hated and yields have become attractive at 5-6%; she suggests leaning into the intermediate/belly of the Treasury curve rather than staying in cash-like short maturities because higher yields have a self-limiting effect on the economy and investors tend to hate bonds right before they love them.
US Treasuries (5-10 year) LONG
Ten-year yields fall toward 4%.
He sees fair value for 10-year Treasury yields around 4% and a near-term equilibrium around 4.5%, below current levels; inflation softness in housing and goods supports lower yields and supports the long end.
10-Year US Treasury LONG
Semiconductors could drop another 10%.
AI capex is entering a late-stage cycle and the economy may be too small to justify all the spending; semiconductors are the most vulnerable part of the market and could fall another 10% as investors shift focus to 2028 sustainability.
SOC SHORT
Consumer spending rebound supports retail.
Consumer spending is stronger than the July retail sales slowdown suggested; August spending normalized back to near 8% year-over-year retail sales growth, with participation across income levels, supporting US consumer-facing equities.
XLY LONG
AI revenue acceleration overpowers higher rates.
AI-related revenue acceleration for hyperscalers is strong enough to override higher-rate pressure for now; a nine percentage point increase in revenue growth is huge and is what the equity market is hinging on.
AI/hyperscaler equities LONG
Higher rates cap AI stock valuations.
Higher rates raise borrowing costs and will put pressure on AI stock multiples, capping valuations even if AI capex plans continue; he would look for companies with independent earnings upside.
AIQ AVOID
HIGH
15:51
Sep 03
Sep 03
CNBC
2h
NTAP
▾
HIGH
Record quarter, raised outlook, strong momentum.
NetApp had a record-setting fiscal Q1, beating on revenue and EPS, with revenue up 30% YoY and all-flash/high-performance storage up 47% YoY. The company substantially raised its full-year outlook and saw strength across every customer size, industry, and geography. Product gross margin beat was driven by a richer mix of software and higher-performance configurations.
NTAP LONG
HIGH
15:50
Sep 03
Sep 03
Macro Voices
2h
Advanced nuclear energy
Small modular reactors
Microreactors
NLR 1ST
URA 1ST
▾
HIGH
Hyperscaler PPAs unlock nuclear renaissance.
Hyperscalers and data center builders are now willing to sign 20-year $100 per megawatt hour PPAs, creating order books and secure offtake that make advanced nuclear projects financable and open the nuclear renaissance.
Advanced nuclear energy LONG
Mass-produced SMRs cut nuclear costs.
Mass manufacturing reactor components and small shippable reactor units can shrink lead times from years to months and drive nuclear costs down to compete with diesel first and later other generation; reference plants by 2028 or 2029 start this cost curve.
Small modular reactors LONG
Microreactors replace remote diesel generators.
Advanced microreactors can replace large diesel generator sets at remote mining and Arctic installations, eliminating weekly fuel flights and creating large cost savings even though that niche is smaller than data centers.
Microreactors LONG
US needs exportable reactor model.
Global nuclear construction is split between Chinese and Russian designs, while the US lacks a proven on-time, on-budget reactor model; getting a US reference microreactor built creates a pathway to larger exportable US reactors.
NLR LONG
Restart old nuclear plants fastest.
Uranium conversion capacity is highly concentrated, with much capacity in Russia and only one old US plant; executive orders require exiting Russian conversion supply by 2028 but no alternative yet exists, so companies filling the gap are well positioned.
URA LONG
Laser enrichment may dominate uranium enrichment.
Laser enrichment can selectively excite U-235 rather than both isotopes, making enrichment much more efficient than gas centrifuges; GLE and Hexium are pursuing laser and lithium routes, so laser enrichment is likely the future though not fully proven.
Uranium enrichment LONG
Supercritical CO2 turbines boost efficiency.
Supercritical CO2 power cycles allow higher pressures, much smaller turbine equipment, mass manufacturing, and up to 50% thermal efficiency; bottoming cycles can add another 10% to 20% more power generation from existing assets.
Supercritical CO2 turbines LONG
Fusion could undercut fission by 2030s.
Fusion power plants could be operational in the early to mid 2030s, around the same time as larger SMRs, and should cost less than fission because hydrogen fuel eliminates uranium mining, conversion, enrichment, and storage; HTS magnets and lasers have dramatically shrunk devices.
Nuclear fusion LONG
Fusion enabling tech and superconducting magnets.
Both integrated fusion power plant developers and enabling component suppliers are attractive; high-temperature superconducting magnets and laser technologies are key, and Spinner Energy applies superconducting magnets to data center and grid power transfer.
Fusion enabling technologies LONG
High-temperature superconducting magnets LONG
Silicon carbide enables compact power electronics.
Silicon carbide became cheap thanks to electric vehicle scale and enables small, high-voltage, thermally tolerant power devices; it is important for solid-state transformers, grid interconnections, and nuclear cladding, with wafering advances like Halo Industries.
Silicon carbide LONG
Wide bandgap semiconductors LONG
Copper and aluminum supply chains tight.
Copper and aluminum are critical for the electric grid and manufactured components; US aluminum refining largely disappeared and new mine timelines are scary, so shrinking timelines and adding supply is a key opportunity.
COPPER LONG
Aluminum LONG
Solid-state transformers cut interconnection lead times.
Transformers are a limiting grid interconnection component; companies are mass manufacturing solid-state transformers using silicon carbide to cut lead times from years to weeks or months, which is essential to connect more nuclear and data center power.
Solid-state transformers LONG
Rare earths and magnets attractive.
Upstream material production for the electric grid and energy hardware, including rare earth element refining, mining, and magnet production, is an attractive opportunity as new energy and grid equipment scales.
REMX LONG
800V data centers need power management.
Nvidia's 800V data center distribution roadmap and the scale of one megawatt per cabinet create a need for low-cost, standardized rack-level power management and smooth grid interfaces because AI training loads swing violently.
Data center power management LONG
Virtual power plants reduce peak load.
Aggregating flexible demand into virtual power plants can reduce peak load and behave like a real power plant, reducing the need to build additional generation capacity.
Virtual power plants LONG
Geothermal depends on deep drilling advances.
Geothermal is attracting more activity and could reach 5 to 7 cents per kilowatt hour if deep drilling and power density improve; Quaise is working on cost-effective deep drilling near load, and drill-bit materials are a cross-industry opportunity.
GEOTHERMAL ENERGY LONG
Industrial robotics dominate near term.
Industrial robotics in dangerous, remote, or difficult tasks is seeing the most penetration now, including crop dusting via Pyka, shipbuilding, decommissioning, and construction, while home humanoid robots are five-plus years out; robotic safety remains key.
Industrial robotics LONG
Humanoid robotics WATCH
HIGH
15:27
Sep 03
Sep 03
CNBC
2h
SNOW
▾
HIGH
AI flywheel drives Snowflake growth.
Snowflake's AI flywheel is accelerating: more data is moving to Snowflake because having data on Snowflake makes it AI-ready, and Snowflake's AI products help customers get value quickly, which drives new customers and new data. The company posted $1.49 billion in product revenue, up 37% year over year.
SNOW LONG
HIGH
15:02
Sep 03
Sep 03
WEALTH 1ST
▾
MED
Customization demand benefits wealth management firms.
Customization and tax management are becoming table stakes for serving high-net-worth clients; most high-net-worth investors expect customized portfolios and proactive tax reduction, and asset/wealth managers are investing in scalable technology and fractional shares to extend these strategies to mass affluent clients.
WEALTH LONG
MED
14:35
Sep 03
Sep 03
CNBC
3h
U.S. Treasury complex
▾
MED
Treasury curve bull steepening as yields drop
Treasury yields are falling across the curve and the market is bull steepening, with short-end yields dropping faster than long-end yields after Waller from the Fed shifted rate expectations; all maturity yields are lower on the day.
U.S. Treasury complex WATCH
MED
14:28
Sep 03
Sep 03
CNBC
3h
SNOW 1ST
DDOG 1ST
NOW 1ST
CRM
AVGO 1ST
▾
MED
Snowflake rallies on strong quarterly results
Snowflake shares surged more than 20% in early trading after reporting strong quarterly results.
SNOW LONG
Snowflake rally lifts Datadog, ServiceNow, Salesforce
Snowflake's strong results and 20% rally are lifting software peers including Datadog, ServiceNow, and Salesforce, signaling positive read-through for software names.
DDOG LONG
NOW LONG
CRM LONG
Broadcom slips on weak revenue forecast
Broadcom shares slipped as investors reacted negatively to the chipmaker's fourth-quarter revenue forecast.
AVGO AVOID
Nvidia's Hugging Face deal scales open AI
Cramer applauds Nvidia buying Hugging Face because the US needs its own open-model ecosystem to blunt Chinese progress; he says the deal is asymmetric because AMD or Broadcom buying Hugging Face would have been sold off, and Nvidia avoiding a lost bidding war preserves its perceived edge in open AI.
NVDA LONG
MED
14:21
Sep 03
Sep 03
IHI 1ST
European cybersecurity
European critical infrastructure
▾
HIGH
Europe must boost defense spending
Martin argues that Russia's aggression and increasing recklessness, combined with a shifting US posture, are forcing the European Union to do far more on security and defense capability. He says Europe has major gaps in self-reliance and that eastern flank states view Russia as an existential threat, supporting stronger European defense spending.
IHI LONG
Europe must invest in cybersecurity infrastructure
Martin says security has a broad economic dimension that includes critical infrastructure such as energy interconnectors, subsea cables, and cybersecurity, and that Europe needs more investment and collaboration to counter sophisticated hybrid threats.
European cybersecurity LONG
European critical infrastructure LONG
HIGH
14:00
Sep 03
Sep 03
CNBC
4h
Philadelphia 76ers
Stadium-anchored real estate development
Los Angeles Lakers
Private equity minority sports investments
Youth sports events and tournaments
▾
HIGH
LeBron signing boosts Sixers franchise value.
Josh Harris says LeBron James chose Philadelphia because he thought he could win and spend the final chapter of his career there; the signing immediately energized the city, sold out tickets, and opened sponsorship opportunities, strengthening the 76ers franchise.
Philadelphia 76ers LONG
Stadium-anchored real estate creates long-term value.
Harris believes sports-anchored real estate is a major value driver: he is making the largest private investment in Washington with a $4 billion stadium development and over the next decade building thousands of housing units, hotels, restaurants, and similar mixed-use development in Philadelphia with Comcast.
Stadium-anchored real estate development LONG
Lakers worth every bit of $12.5 billion.
Harris argues the Lakers at $12.5 billion are not an overpay because the franchise went from about $10 billion 14 months ago to $12.5 billion now, roughly 25% growth in line with sports franchise appreciation, and the Lakers are one of the existential NBA franchises in the biggest media market with scarcity value.
Los Angeles Lakers LONG
Private equity increasingly lifts sports values.
Harris highlights private equity's influx into minority sports team stakes as a new source of demand and liquidity, reducing illiquidity and letting investors participate, which supports continued growth in sports franchise values.
Private equity minority sports investments LONG
Youth sports demand exceeds supply.
Harris sees youth sports as a growth industry because demand for tournaments exceeds supply; his group provides tournaments, coaching, better food and lodging, and inclusive access, creating both social value and economic value.
Youth sports events and tournaments LONG
Sports franchise values are not a bubble.
Harris does not see a bubble in sports team valuations; he points to expected revenue and cash-flow growth, scarcity value similar to art or beachfront real estate, very low required cap rates, and strong demand from buyers.
Sports franchise valuations LONG
Commanders at $6 billion looks attractive.
Harris says the Commanders purchase at $6 billion, which was criticized as the highest price ever, now looks like an attractive deal as NFL team valuations have climbed above $10-12 billion and he expects values to keep going.
Washington Commanders LONG
HIGH
13:37
Sep 03
Sep 03
SPY
QUAL 1ST
Value stocks
Mid-cap equities
Low-quality/momentum stocks
▾
HIGH
Stocks still constructive on extraordinary earnings.
The firm remains very constructive on stocks because earnings power is extraordinary, even after four straight years of the strongest bull run in history and massive wealth appreciation.
SPY LONG
Rotate into quality value mid caps.
After a period dominated by low-quality, high-momentum and junkier stocks, she recommends peeling back at the margin and leaning into quality and value, including mid caps, which have underperformed and are among the most hated parts of the market.
QUAL LONG
Value stocks LONG
Mid-cap equities LONG
Low-quality/momentum stocks AVOID
Favor intermediate bonds over short and long.
She favors moving into the intermediate part of the Treasury curve, rather than staying in money markets/ultra-short bonds or taking excess long-end volatility in 30-year Treasuries. She sees an upside ceiling in yields because mortgage rates near 7%, weak housing, firmer oil prices, and higher U.S. yields versus the rest of the world are self-limiting forces.
Intermediate-term Treasuries LONG
TLT LONG
Money market funds/ultra-short bonds AVOID
Strong corporate demand faces issuance liquidity test.
Demand for corporate bonds has never been stronger and corporate credit may be less risky than government debt, but massive hyperscaler debt/equity issuance is colliding with central banks removing liquidity, creating a key test for corporate bond demand.
LQD WATCH
HIGH
13:30
Sep 03
Sep 03
EWY
005930.KS
000660.KS
196170.KQ
KBE
▾
HIGH
KOSPI short sellers retreating; September weak-strong
The current KOSPI decline is qualitatively different from July because the KOSPI stock borrow balance is falling, which indicates short sellers are reducing downside bets; in July the borrow balance surged before the sharp drop. With downside short supply retreating, he expects a weak-early, strong-late September and says investors should watch borrow balance and short-selling data as a leading indicator rather than assume another July-style selloff.
EWY WATCH
Hold Samsung and SK Hynix until December
Medium- and long-term investors should hold Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix toward December as long as their July lows hold; by December he expects prices to be higher than now. Short-term weakness should be hedged with inverse ETFs rather than selling, but if the July lows break, positions should be cut because the whole market would be at risk.
005930.KS LONG
000660.KS LONG
Alteogen shows clear short-selling downside pressure
Alteogen's short-selling ratio has repeatedly reached double-digit levels around 10-12%, including consecutive prints, indicating short sellers have clearly been building downside exposure in the stock. He uses it as a specific example of a stock where short-selling supply pressure is visible.
196170.KQ WATCH
Accumulate Korean banks before October rate trade
He is adding Korean bank stocks now because they are part of the rate and inflation benefit trade and should be accumulated before October; banks have not run much yet, so he is increasing allocation as he reduces semiconductor overweight.
KBE LONG
Reduce AI-derivative power and cable names
He has significantly reduced or closed AI-derivative plays such as power equipment, cable, and related names because if the AI momentum trade produces a final rally, it should be concentrated in semiconductors rather than in secondary AI-theme stocks.
Korean power equipment and cable stocks AVOID
HIGH
13:15
Sep 03
Sep 03
Taiki Maeda
4h
ZEC
BTC
HYPE
LIT
Crypto infrastructure/VC tokens
▾
HIGH
Zcash is asymmetric privacy store-of-value long.
Zcash is a proof-of-work privacy coin with Bitcoin-like 21 million supply and halving cycles. After nearly a decade of distribution and declining inflation, it is breaking out while shielded-pool usage is rising. ZEC is only about 1% of Bitcoin's market cap, with room to close toward a silver-like 10-15% store-of-value role. A spot ETF is live, its quantum roadmap is framed as stronger than Bitcoin, and surviving the Orchard exploit is treated as anti-fragile trust evidence. Taiki holds the majority of his net worth in the trade and argues higher prices reflexively improve privacy capacity and network effects, so $1,000 is not resistance.
ZEC LONG
Crypto bull market early; Bitcoin supported.
Crypto is in the early innings of a bull market because the debasement trade has returned. Gold and Bitcoin pumped after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent moved to buy long-term bonds, and gold-to-Bitcoin correlation hit new all-time highs, signaling non-crypto money now treats Bitcoin as a store of value. Crypto natives are also too bearish and underallocated, so sideline capital should continue supporting Bitcoin and broader crypto upside.
BTC LONG
Within crypto, reallocate to quality assets.
Within crypto, capital is rotating in a K-shaped way away from last cycle's broken infrastructure and VC tokens into good assets: store-of-value assets like Bitcoin and Zcash, and buyback/cash-flow tokens like Hyperliquid and Lighter. These winners can outperform even while Bitcoin chops, so the trade is to own quality assets and avoid dead, over-supplied tokens.
HYPE LONG
LIT LONG
Crypto infrastructure/VC tokens AVOID
HIGH
13:10
Sep 03
Sep 03
10-Year U.S. Treasury
TLT 1ST
JPM 1ST
GS 1ST
MS 1ST
▾
HIGH
Long-dated Treasuries are an incredible deal.
The bond bear market is a sentiment-driven 'mind virus': inflation is falling and economic data such as payrolls, JOLTS, and PMI are deteriorating, while the $2 trillion deficit is only about 6% of GDP versus 12% in 2010. Everyone measures bond supply but ignores demand; a risk-off event would send money into bonds. He has moved a large share of his own money into long bonds as a three-to-five-year hold and calls 5.2-5.3% on 30s and 4.7% on 10s an incredible deal.
10-Year U.S. Treasury LONG
TLT LONG
Financials and broker-dealers are topping.
His top-50 S&P chart review shows financials topping, with broker-dealers looking worst. JP Morgan was a pretty good short, and Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and Wells Fargo all look like they are topping.
JPM SHORT
GS SHORT
MS SHORT
WFC SHORT
Semiconductors are topping on growth deceleration.
He sees semiconductor charts as topping and is waiting for Nvidia's second derivative of growth to slow from 70% toward 50-60%, which he says is when these stocks top. Retail investors are heavily concentrated in names like Nvidia and Broadcom, while hedge funds have been crowded long semis.
NVDA SHORT
AMD SHORT
SMH SHORT
Healthcare and JNJ are topping.
His chart work indicates healthcare is topping, and Johnson & Johnson is called out as a topping healthcare name.
XLV AVOID
JNJ AVOID
Intel and Oracle are bottoming.
In the same top-50 S&P chart review, Intel and Oracle look like they are bottoming even though more charts are rolling over than basing.
INTC LONG
ORCL LONG
Copper is least favorite metal.
Copper is his least favorite metal: AI-driven sentiment is hot, the chart is stretched in the upper right, and recent price action has been ugly. He would much rather own gold, silver, and platinum than copper.
COPPER AVOID
Gold cautiously bullish on weakening labor.
Gold rallied 15% in a month and then broke back below its 200-day after Jackson Hole; he doubts the amateur technical call for a retest to 4,000 and is cautiously bullish, especially because deteriorating payrolls will make the Fed dovish and support gold.
GLD LONG
AI is a debt-financed bubble.
He believes AI is a bubble because this is the first cycle he has seen tech financed with debt rather than equity, at roughly 6% coupons, for assets that become obsolete in about three years. That leverage dynamic is distinct from the dot-com bubble and creates downside risk for AI/tech.
AI/technology sector AVOID
Equal-weight multi-asset cuts volatility and drawdowns.
He advocates replacing a 100% S&P 500 index-fund portfolio with an equal-weight mix of stocks, bonds, gold, cash, and real estate. Historically this gives up only one to two percentage points of return but cuts volatility roughly in half, with a worst drawdown around 12% versus about 40% for the S&P 500.
Equal-weight multi-asset portfolio (stocks/bonds/gold/cash/real estate) LONG
Private credit and PE still bearish.
He remains bearish on private credit and private equity: private-market unwinds lack liquidity, portfolio companies are being held rather than sold, and the bear market has not found a bottom. He sees this as connected to the AI unwind.
BIZD AVOID
PSP AVOID
HIGH
13:00
Sep 03
Sep 03
ARB 1ST
SOL 1ST
Boner 1ST
CINEMA 1ST
Tokenized Equities
▾
HIGH
Robinhood Chain surge benefits Arbitrum.
Robinhood Chain's explosive memecoin and tokenized-stock activity has already driven a rally in Arbitrum because Robinhood Chain is built on the Arbitrum stack, while Ethereum captures only small data-availability fees and little of the transaction economics.
ARB LONG
Memecoin traders are no longer chain loyal.
Most Robinhood Chain users came through FOMO and the app/wallet abstraction has made memecoin traders chain-agnostic, meaning the previous Solana memecoin-trader loyalty is gone and traders will go wherever the app takes them.
SOL AVOID
Stock memecoin depegs reward hedge funds.
Weekend pumps in stock-paired memecoins such as Boner/HIMS and Cinema/AMC cannot achieve a GameStop-style short squeeze because the tokenized stock floats are tiny; the resulting depeg hands guaranteed arbitrage to hedge funds and destroys late retail buyers.
Boner AVOID
CINEMA AVOID
Meme frenzy grows tokenized equity issuance.
The meme frenzy is increasing actual retail-sized tokenized-stock/RWA issuance on Robinhood Chain from almost nothing to about $70-80m, up around 50% week-on-week, and some days stock-token volume exceeds memecoin volume, so the activity may stick and create a new primary venue for tokenized equities.
Tokenized Equities WATCH
Onshore Hyperliquid separate but brand positive.
A Kraken/Bitnomial onshore Hyperliquid will likely be a separate regulated instance with centralized clearing, collateral, surveillance and different liquidation mechanics rather than unified liquidity, but it makes sense for brand expansion and dual offshore/onshore products can both grow, similar to Polymarket US.
HYPE WATCH
HIGH
12:43
Sep 03
Sep 03
CNBC
5h
NVDA
▾
HIGH
Nvidia grows on both AI paths.
The $12.9 billion acquisition of Hugging Face gives Nvidia a strategically important open-model platform with 200,000 enterprise customers, 18 million developers, and 3 million models across AI fields; Jensen says the price is what it is worth, open models are a large growth driver of Nvidia, and scaling the open community faster will be great for Nvidia.
NVDA LONG
HIGH
12:36
Sep 03
Sep 03
FXY
EWJ 1ST
JGBUX FLIP
TLT FLIP
OAT 1ST
▾
MED
Coordinated intervention risk could sharply lift yen
Intervention risk is centered on the 160 level in dollar-yen; the market is nervous and may defend key levels for the Bank of Japan. Unilateral intervention typically fails to create sustained appreciation, but if the US is involved in a more concerted multilateral intervention than last time, it would be more credible because the US has ample dollars, and could trigger a significant yen appreciation.
FXY LONG
GPIF domestic shift could support Japanese assets
The Government Pension Investment Fund's unusual review, prompted by the prime minister's calls to invest more domestically, could shift large Japanese pension assets toward local markets. Japanese equities have become significantly more attractive and Japanese bonds now offer income, and a government-driven allocation shift has historically been large enough to support Japanese assets and the yen.
EWJ LONG
JGBUX LONG
GPIF repatriation could pressure U.S., French bonds
If GPIF and other Japanese pension funds repatriate foreign holdings, they could sell U.S. Treasuries and French government bonds, putting pressure on those markets. France has about 60% foreign ownership of government bonds and more price-sensitive holders, while the US has roughly 25%; Japanese investors have been sticky but could follow a GPIF change.
TLT AVOID
OAT AVOID
MED
12:36
Sep 03
Sep 03
USD/JPY
▾
HIGH
USD/JPY term premium could unwind sharply.
A rate-differential model alone puts dollar-yen near 140, but adding a Japanese term premium because the BOJ fell behind the curve gives fair value near 160. If that premium unwinds, it can unwind very quickly, and the move in the last 24 hours shows nervousness that an outsized move from Japan could be very large.
USD/JPY WATCH
HIGH
12:30
Sep 03
Sep 03
EWY
N225
Taiwan TAIEX
FXY
USD/JPY
▾
HIGH
Watch Asia basket algorithmic selling.
The 2 p.m. KOSPI drop was not a domestic-only event; Japan and Taiwan moved the same way. The most likely cause was foreign algorithmic selling of a Korea-Taiwan-Japan equity basket, with local derivative arbitrage then amplifying the cash selloff. Investors should treat this as a recurring risk and monitor the Asia basket response instead of panic selling on unexplained sharp drops.
EWY WATCH
N225 WATCH
Taiwan TAIEX WATCH
Watch yen strength as trigger.
The trigger behind the selling was likely yen strength. Japan's 10-year JGB yield has broken above 3%, and BOJ 50bp rate-hike chatter pushed the yen from around 164 to 156, activating yen-carry or NK-trade liquidation. Yu says he does not think a full NK trade occurred today but says this mechanism must be monitored around the 159-157 area.
FXY WATCH
USD/JPY WATCH
Watch Treasury yields for risk signal.
The key macro variable is the US 10-year Treasury yield. Treasury issuance, hyperscaler bond supply, Fed uncertainty, and inflation worries keep long rates elevated; buybacks are only temporary and yields are unlikely to fall all the way to 4.5. He argues investors should watch rates and wait for weak employment, lower CPI, and FOMC signals that the money bottleneck is easing before adding risk.
US10Y WATCH
Prefer insurers and banks over securities.
Current tight money and thin trading volumes favor financial groups that benefit from expensive money and defensive institutional allocation. Yu ranks Korean insurance first, banks second, and securities last; Shinhan Financial Group is making new highs, while Kiwoom Securities has broken moving averages and is resting near its 520-day line because retail trading volume has collapsed.
Korean Insurance Sector LONG
KBE LONG
055550.KS LONG
Korean Securities Sector AVOID
Watch AI share for memory stocks.
Samsung Electronics and SK hynix now move with Anthropic and OpenAI market share. If OpenAI takes share from Anthropic, it is not a severe issue because both are core Korean semiconductor customers, but if Chinese open-weight models take AI share, that is a negative since those are not major Korean memory buyers. The Anthropic IPO and third-quarter AI model share data are therefore key watch items for these two stocks.
000660.KS WATCH
005930.KS WATCH
Hyperscaler bonds beat Treasuries.
Hyperscaler corporate bonds yielding about 5.5-5.6% are more attractive than 10-year Treasuries and carry strong credit, so bond investors have little reason to buy government debt; this corporate issuance is crowding out Treasury demand and contributing to upward pressure on long rates.
US Hyperscaler Corporate Bonds LONG
HIGH
12:19
Sep 03
Sep 03
CNBC
5h
Equities
TIP 1ST
GLD 1ST
10-Year Treasury Yield
▾
HIGH
Fed tolerance supports continued equity rally.
The Fed is willing to tolerate inflation at current levels and is unlikely to tighten aggressively; in this inflation-overshoot regime, one or two more rate hikes over the next 12 months do not change the regime and give equity investors a green light to expect a continued rally and continued strong earnings growth.
Equities LONG
Add inflation protection and real assets.
In an inflation-overshoot regime with likely elevated bond market volatility, investors should balance core fixed income exposure with inflation protection and real assets to protect against inflation.
TIP LONG
GLD LONG
Higher bond yields may signal stronger growth.
The bond market selloff is getting a lot of attention, but the 10-year Treasury yield is only up five basis points since early August; higher bond yields could reflect stronger near-term growth or AI productivity showing up in the data, meaning the economy can handle higher rates.
10-Year Treasury Yield WATCH
HIGH
12:16
Sep 03
Sep 03
FXY FLIP
CHF 1ST
DIESEL 1ST
CRAK
AVGO
▾
HIGH
Yen supported by BOJ hike confluence
The yen's sharp strengthening is not intervention but a confluence of the BOJ leaning toward a 25 basis point hike this month, a strong 30-year JGB auction showing demand for Japanese bonds, reports of a large Japanese pension fund reallocating more to domestic bonds sooner, and short covering. A BOJ signal of willingness to move faster would further lift the yen, though he doubts the BOJ will move at a quicker pace.
FXY LONG
Swiss franc gains on earlier hike bets
Swiss CPI exceeded expectations and GDP beat estimates, in line with the Swiss central bank's expected path, leading traders to price an earlier interest rate hike and driving Swiss franc strength after a period of depreciation.
CHF LONG
Refined products tighten on supply disruptions
Global fuel markets are tight because a partially blocked Strait of Hormuz and reduced Gulf refinery exports, plus Russian sanctions and refinery attacks, have cut supplies of diesel and jet fuel to Europe. Diesel refining margins have tripled since the war started, and competition from China and India keeps crude and product flows tight, supporting refined product prices.
DIESEL LONG
CRAK LONG
Broadcom long-term AI growth, short-term bottleneck
Broadcom's near-term guidance disappointed because optical supply-chain bottlenecks are restricting growth, but its massive custom AI chip orders imply growth will double and then double again over the next two fiscal years, driven by Anthropic and OpenAI, with Google becoming only the third-largest customer by fiscal 2028.
AVGO WATCH
Snowflake wins enterprise AI adoption
Snowflake is showing real-world enterprise AI adoption at scale because it runs AI models where corporate data lives and is seeing mass uptake by thousands of clients for its AI assistant, giving it a first-mover and technology-footprint advantage and driving a large premarket market-cap gain.
SNOW LONG
Central banks diversify gold amid US distrust
The Dutch central bank's decision to move gold from New York to London is about declining trust in the US financial system and US policymaking, echoing prior reserve behavior. It highlights gold's role as a reserve asset and supports the idea of central banks diversifying gold holdings outside the US.
GLD WATCH
Stocks can grind higher on macro
Equity markets are not showing real signs of discomfort with current yields, and as long as the macro backdrop stays constructive and supportive, stocks can continue to deliver modest positive gains, though volatility may increase around the midterms.
SPY LONG
Tech/AI trade remains positive but broadening
The tech and AI trade remains positive and investors still want exposure, but gains will likely flatten and broaden out as productivity gains from the AI buildout spread through the economy, making stock-specific analysis more important.
Technology / AI trade LONG
Financials benefit from steepening and AI
Financials and banks are increasingly attractive because they were unloved at the start of the year on Iran war concerns, the macro backdrop has not deteriorated, steepening yield pressure supports bank margins, and financials also benefit from the AI capex buildout.
XLF LONG
KBE LONG
AI issuance keeps Treasury yields elevated
AI-related capital expenditure is yield-agnostic and heavy AI-related issuance is likely to keep coming to market, creating competition for capital and keeping upward pressure on Treasury yields for the foreseeable future. Current yield levels are close to fair value and not at a level that would trigger intervention.
TLT AVOID
HIGH
11:30
Sep 03
Sep 03
EWY
ANTHROPIC 1ST
USD/KRW
APR 1ST
Cosmax
▾
MED
Hold current KOSPI support as opportunity.
The market is in a liquidity-drained sideways range, but he argues that if the KOSPI holds current support without breaking down, low-price buying is emerging and the index offers opportunities; the best scenario for now is sideways resilience.
EWY WATCH
Participate in Anthropic IPO strongly.
Anthropic's IPO is expected in late September or early October and is a must-participate event; he believes it could attract more capital than SpaceX, and the need to fund IPO allocations may already be causing investors to sell existing equities.
ANTHROPIC LONG
Watch USD/KRW for rebound toward 1,400.
After the won's sharp appreciation from the 1,500 area to the 1,320 area, he says it is hard to bet on further won strength and warns of a possible rebound toward 1,400; FX whipsaw also makes foreign investors hesitant to enter Korean stocks.
USD/KRW WATCH
Buy Korean cosmetics on dips.
Korean cosmetics is sensitive to the won but sales are growing about 20% per quarter on exports; after mild pullbacks in APR and Cosmax, the sector remains attractive on dips and is a representative export-growth sector to watch.
APR LONG
Cosmax LONG
Korean cosmetics LONG
Favor six-percent corporate bonds over stocks.
In a weak sideways equity market, AI-related companies are issuing corporate bonds at 6-7% yields to fund data centers; large cash holders may prefer these corporate bonds over stocks, making corporate credit attractive and diverting demand from equities.
US corporate bonds LONG
Construction stocks gain on data center buildout.
Construction stocks are rebounding because data center construction and nuclear power plant needs are becoming new cyclical drivers; GS E&C and the broader construction group showed renewed strength and should be watched as part of AI power/data center infrastructure.
006360.KS LONG
Korean construction sector LONG
Shipbuilding stocks are September catch-up buys.
Shipbuilding stocks have solid earnings but did not rally in August, so September is a catch-up opportunity; among shipyards, Samsung Heavy Industries looks attractive because it is not already carrying the specific project expectations embedded in Hanwha Ocean or HD Hyundai Heavy.
010140.KS LONG
Korean Shipbuilding LONG
Strong won may cut semiconductor profit estimates.
The Beige Book shows AI data centers are an actual economic driver, so AI demand remains alive; for Samsung Electronics and SK hynix the current problem is short-term supply/demand positioning rather than fundamentals, so the AI semiconductor thesis does not need to be abandoned.
005930.KS WATCH
000660.KS WATCH
US Treasuries face upward yield pressure.
He interprets the Treasury Secretary's and New York Fed president's comments as political rather than reassuring; rising yields reflect fiscal debt burden and supply-driven inflation, and corporate bond supply is crowding out Treasuries, so the US Treasury market faces upward yield pressure.
TLT AVOID
MED
11:21
Sep 03
Sep 03
EEM 1ST
European financials
IEUS 1ST
XLY 1ST
KXI 1ST
▾
HIGH
Overweight emerging market equities for growth.
Lombard Odier is overweight equities and sees emerging market equities as attractive given lower valuations and stronger earnings, offering a way to capture resilient global growth and a pro-risk stance.
EEM LONG
European financials benefit from steeper yields.
European equity indices have large financial sector exposure, and steeper yield curves and higher average yields should boost bank interest income, supporting European financials and the broader European equity market.
European financials LONG
Utilities hedge energy scarcity risk.
Utilities have been beaten down by higher interest rates but are a useful way to hedge renewed energy and gas market tension and the broader energy scarcity theme in Europe.
IEUS LONG
Avoid European consumer sectors.
Barclays does not like consumer discretionary or consumer staples because higher energy prices, higher inflation and higher rates are squeezing consumers, so it prefers the investment/CapEx side of the economy.
XLY AVOID
KXI AVOID
Soitec benefits from AI photonics demand.
Soitec raised revenue guidance and is leveraged to photonics, which is an early-stage shift from electrical to optical transmission and is seeing huge incremental demand from AI data centers.
SOITEC LONG
Nokia exposed to AI optics demand.
Nokia has large exposure to the same photonics/optics layer in AI data centers, with an encouraging share price run and AI-related data center connectivity demand.
NOK LONG
Broadcom AI chip sales accelerating.
Broadcom's AI revenue trajectory is supported by its large customers diversifying AI chip supply; the 2028 revenue outlook is roughly 10-15% above consensus, with OpenAI and Anthropic expected to overtake Google as demand drivers.
AVGO LONG
M&G has record earnings and momentum.
M&G reported record first-half results with adjusted operating income up 15%, growth across asset management and life, and visible catalysts including BPA Plus, private markets and cost/income improvement.
M&G LONG
Yen set for sharp appreciation.
The yen is trading far below model fair value around 140; the divergence is sustained by a Japan term premium, and if that premium unwinds or BOJ/intervention catalysts hit, the move can be very large.
FXY LONG
Hormuz supply keeps oil elevated.
Strait of Hormuz crude flows are only about 7 million barrels a day, enough to avoid $100 but not enough to meet all demand, with vessel availability and product constraints keeping crude and US diesel prices elevated.
BNO LONG
US retail diesel LONG
European gas prices likely stay high.
Europe faces a race to rebuild low gas storage, especially Germany at 53%, forcing spot purchases and competition with Asia; this points to elevated European gas prices over the winter even if shortages are avoided.
UNG LONG
Activist pressure unlocks Deutsche Telekom value.
Elliott has built a sizable stake in Deutsche Telekom and wants management to drop a T-Mobile merger and instead boost shareholder value through larger buybacks, creating activist-driven pressure.
DTEGY WATCH
Watches of Switzerland guidance on track.
Watches of Switzerland reiterated full-year guidance, recovering from luxury sector worries and remaining on track with its Rolex showroom pipeline.
WOSG LONG
Eni adds major Venezuelan oil field.
Eni is starting to drill a new Venezuelan oil field with 25 years exclusive access and nearly 35 billion barrels of certified oil, a long-term resource upside despite short-term market pressures.
E WATCH
HIGH
11:08
Sep 03
Sep 03
CNBC
6h
FXY
U.S. 10-year Treasury yield
DBC
WTI
Bloomberg AG Index
▾
HIGH
BOJ hawkish hike supports stronger yen
The Bank of Japan is lining up a rate increase on September 18 and will need to talk hawkishly about continued hikes because its overnight rate is only 1% while inflation is running at 2%. The 160 level in dollar-yen has been a line in the sand, and intervention is likely, supporting a stronger yen and dollar weakness against the yen.
FXY LONG
Long-term Treasury yields remain in uptrend
Even if a hawkish BOJ can temporarily calm global long-term rates, the trend in U.S. and European long-term interest rates is still higher because of debts and deficits, competition for capital, and persistent inflation. He watches the 10-year Treasury yield rather than only the Fed because the yield curve is setting the price of money.
U.S. 10-year Treasury yield LONG
Full-fledged commodity bull market underway
Boockvar believes we are in a full-fledged commodity bull market, with higher trends across energy, agriculture, precious metals, and industrial metals. That commodity strength is an underlying bid to inflation and complicates the job of central banks.
DBC LONG
WTI crude oil trend remains higher
WTI around $90-92 is still pricing in too lightly that the Iran/U.S. conflict could disrupt supply and that inventory disruptions can be handled. Commercial and strategic reserves and inventories have been drawn down enormously, so the energy price trend is still higher.
WTI LONG
Agricultural commodity rally will continue
The Bloomberg AG Index just touched its highest level since 2023, led by higher corn, wheat, and soybeans, with coffee also moving. Boockvar expects that agricultural price rise to continue and feed persistent inflation.
Bloomberg AG Index LONG
CORN LONG
WEAT LONG
SOYB LONG
KC LONG
Watch if dollar weakness broadens beyond yen
The dollar weakening against the yen may mark the start of broader dollar weakness against other currencies. Boockvar flags this as a key development to watch.
UUP WATCH
HIGH
11:07
Sep 03
Sep 03
034020.KS
196170.KQ
Korean cosmetics
APR
KBE
▾
HIGH
Nuclear stocks may rally further.
A broker report named Doosan Enerbility as the top pick in Korean nuclear power, followed by Hyundai E&C and BH, based on project expectations. Lee agrees and sees room for nuclear-related stocks to rally further, especially Doosan Enerbility.
034020.KS LONG
Alteogen's dip is short-covering buy.
Alteogen has large tech-transfer deals but is falling on heavy short selling. Lee sees support around 270,000 KRW as likely to hold, expects Q3 milestones to beat forecasts, and thinks accumulated shorts could trigger covering; he would buy more if he had cash.
196170.KQ LONG
Sell Korean cosmetics into strength.
Korean cosmetics have been overheated and are entering a correction phase. APR's Singapore product issue is a catalyst for selling pressure, and existing holders should sell into strength; new entrants should wait until the sector turns back up.
Korean cosmetics AVOID
APR AVOID
Prefer banks, avoid securities.
Within financials, Lee prefers banks first because they have market cap and valuation support: KB Financial is around 1.03 PBR and could re-rate toward 1.2. Korean securities are unattractive near term because trading volumes have halved and Mirae Asset faces political risk.
KBE LONG
KB LONG
Korean securities AVOID
006800.KS AVOID
Sell battery rallies.
Secondary battery stocks should be sold on rallies because the current market is driven by fast rotation, and the sector is unlikely to trend persistently higher.
Korean secondary batteries AVOID
Financials benefit from sticky high rates.
Korean financials are the clearest beneficiary of high, sticky interest rates. The sector is large enough for institutional rotation and should be held as a barbell with AI/semiconductors because financials rebounded strongest during market dips.
Korean financials LONG
Oil supported above $90.
Oil is staying above $90 because Middle East risks remain unresolved and attacks on ships with AIS off reduce traffic through Hormuz. This keeps upside pressure on crude despite occasional truce headlines.
BNO LONG
WTI LONG
Watch three market stress triggers.
Watch three trigger levels: 10-year Treasury yield at 5%, dollar index at 100, and Brent at 100. A breach in any of these would likely cause a major market shock.
US10Y WATCH
DXY WATCH
Samsung Heavy Industries looks attractive.
Among shipbuilders, Samsung Heavy Industries looks attractive because it has no specific bad news and the sector was underowned in August. Order backlogs and rotation into shipbuilding support interest.
010140.KS LONG
Insurance first, banks second, securities last.
Insurance is the top financial subsector, followed by banks, then securities. Insurance and banks are defensive rate beneficiaries with dividends, while securities suffer from lower trading volumes and weak earnings.
Korean insurance LONG
Foreign selling pressure remains.
Foreigners still have not finished rebalancing out of Korean equities and are using Samsung and SK hynix buybacks as selling windows. With sentiment brittle and buying power absent, KOSPI is vulnerable to shocks and aggressive buying should wait.
EWY AVOID
Korean memory is not priority yet.
Medium-term investors who held through the July low should not exit in this consolidation. Samsung Electronics and SK hynix are likely higher by December, but short-term traders should step aside and holders can hedge with inverse exposure rather than selling, as long as the July low holds.
005930.KS WATCH
000660.KS WATCH
HIGH
11:00
Sep 03
Sep 03
Leveraged ETFs
161890.KS
Cosmax 1ST
Cosmecca Korea
APR FLIP
▾
HIGH
Reduce leverage and margin exposure now.
Korea's margin/credit balance has risen back to about 33 trillion won, and adding leveraged ETF balances of roughly 5-6 trillion puts leveraged funds near 40 trillion won against only about 100 trillion won in deposits, which is excessive. With macro uncertainty, dried-up trading value, and repeated afternoon selling, any new bad news can trigger forced selling, so investors should cut credit/leverage exposure and keep cash rather than chase aggressively.
Leveraged ETFs AVOID
Buy cosmetics ODM leaders after consolidation.
Cosmetics-led consumer names are one of the two main sectors. The ODM leaders such as Kolmar Korea, Cosmax, and Cosmecca Korea led the rally from early August and are now in a normal rest/consolidation phase rather than a deep breakdown. The speaker expects that after the adjustment ends, these names will again give tradeable buying opportunities.
161890.KS LONG
Cosmax LONG
Cosmecca Korea LONG
Avoid late-rising cosmetics laggards now.
APR, Amorepacific, LG Household & Health Care, and Dalba Global were late followers in the cosmetics trade, rising only from mid-August after the ODM leaders had already moved. When funds concentrated, there was no one left to keep buying these already-crowded names, so the move broke down. The speaker warns investors to be cautious about these late-rising cosmetic laggards.
APR AVOID
090430.KS AVOID
LG Household & Health Care AVOID
AP AVOID
Watch AI data center value chain rotation.
AI data center value chain is one of the two main sectors. Funds have rotated through secondary batteries, SK Telecom, power equipment, shipbuilding, steel, and construction on AI data center issues. Power equipment names such as Hyosung Heavy Industries, Sanil Electric, LS Electric, and HD Hyundai Electric had long rests and showed late-session rotation, but the speaker says a meaningful trend does not yet exist and this is still the early stage of whether a trend will form.
Korean AI data center value chain WATCH
298040.KS WATCH
010120.KS WATCH
267260.KS WATCH
006400.KS WATCH
L&F WATCH
SK Telecom WATCH
000720.KS WATCH
004020.KS WATCH
Korean equities near bad-news exhaustion.
The speaker believes the negative macro news, especially Iran/oil and rate-related issues, is near its late stage and that the freshness of bad news is fading. From current levels, the probability of improvement is higher than the probability of further meaningful deterioration. However, a final selling climax could still occur, so he advises holding cash and waiting until after Chuseok for the higher-conviction account-growing window rather than making aggressive bets now.
EWY WATCH
KOSDAQ WATCH
Watch Samsung and Hynix range resolution.
Samsung Electronics and SK hynix have not completed a technical rebound and have not confirmed a bottom. They are trading inside a narrowing range between key moving averages, and as those averages converge the range is getting smaller. The speaker says the next direction will be determined by whether good news or bad news emerges when the range resolves.
005930.KS WATCH
000660.KS WATCH
Fade foreign futures buying signals.
Ahead of futures expiration, foreign investors had cut their futures position to around 20,000 contracts. The speaker says that if foreigners start buying futures and pushing the index higher, it likely reflects arbitrage or opposite positioning and next-day reversal risk, so investors should reduce arbitrage-related exposure. If foreigners instead reduce futures, that is safer. The key edge is that market makers tend to position opposite to retail expectations.
KOSPI 200 futures WATCH
HIGH
10:20
Sep 03
Sep 03
AVGO
U.S. data centers
005930.KS 1ST
000660.KS 1ST
TSM 1ST
▾
HIGH
Broadcom AI chip boom with customer diversification.
Broadcom is benefiting from insatiable AI demand and offers a cheaper alternative silicon ecosystem to Nvidia as Nvidia systems are supply-tight and expensive. Broadcom's conference call signaled that Google, currently its largest customer, will become only the third-largest over the next two years as Anthropic becomes the largest customer followed by OpenAI, implying rapid diversification and scaling of new AI customers.
AVGO LONG
US light-touch AI rules boost data centers.
G20 AI principles support the US light-touch approach to AI regulation: no pre-emptive regulation, no new bodies, easier copyright rules, and encouragement of data center construction. This creates a favorable policy environment for US AI and data center buildout relative to Europe.
U.S. data centers LONG
Tariffs hit Samsung, SK hynix, TSMC.
Proposed US chip tariffs are most likely to hit Asian memory chip makers with large overseas facilities—Samsung, SK hynix, and possibly TSMC—because the tariff exemption depends on actual core manufacturing in the US, not just packaging or facilities, and these firms ship products into the US from overseas capacity.
005930.KS AVOID
000660.KS AVOID
TSM AVOID
Yen weakening risk; BOJ already priced.
The Bank of Japan rate move is already priced in, and Japanese rates remain deeply negative. Keeping the yen at current stronger levels would require more than has been done, so the clear risk is that the yen weakens.
JPY SHORT
US equities resilient despite high yields.
US equities can continue to do well even with bond yields near 5% as long as growth and earnings stay resilient. Second-quarter earnings exceeded forecasts and 2027 estimates are being revised up because earnings are broadening beyond AI; the main risk would be a stagflation repricing, which is not the current base case.
SPY LONG
European manufacturing recovery can surprise higher.
European manufacturing is in a recovery that should remain strong over the next 6-12 months because companies have found alternatives to high energy costs, there is fiscal support in countries like Germany, and AI electrification is driving a mini factory cycle; the sector is less sensitive to energy prices and can surprise on the upside.
European manufacturing LONG
Chevron triples Venezuelan output within capex.
Chevron has agreed to invest $7 billion across three joint ventures in Venezuela over five years to more than triple production, with the fields holding many billions of barrels of heavy oil and output lasting decades. The investment was already in forward planning, so overall capital guidance is unchanged, and US refiners prefer this crude.
CVX LONG
HIGH
10:06
Sep 03
Sep 03
USD/JPY
Japan 30-year government bonds
DXY
TLT 1ST
JNK 1ST
▾
HIGH
BOJ hike risk fuels yen swings
Mark Cranfield says intervention is very unlikely because a real intervention move would be much bigger, but BOJ board member Takata opened the door to a larger-than-25-basis-point hike or back-to-back hikes, so traders are now pricing above 25 basis points and dollar-yen has slipped to 158, making the BOJ meeting a fluid event risk for the yen.
USD/JPY WATCH
Japanese long bonds look attractive
Japanese 30-year bonds look attractive after yields reached about 4% and the long end cheapened; he thinks the government pension fund is starting to put money back into the long end and today's 30-year JGB auction is probably going to be okay.
Japan 30-year government bonds LONG
Dollar downside risk persists
The US dollar faces downside risk from concerns about wide fiscal and current account deficits and rising long-end yields, creating a sell-America theme, but the decline should be drawn out because alternatives like the euro and yen are not yet compelling enough.
DXY WATCH
Bearish bonds on term premium risk
Hamza Ayub says he is bearish bonds because the US curve has risen without much term premium or interest rate volatility, real bond yields have gone up while inflation expectations are stable, and he sees the term premium potentially seeping into interest rate volatility, making him not very positive on bonds despite high carry.
TLT AVOID
Crossover credit offers carry sweet spot
He favors crossover credit over US investment-grade credit because crossover is the sweet spot with inefficiencies in benchmark-relative fixed-income allocation and offers significant carry and high real yields in dollars.
JNK LONG
China equities de-rated, policy support expected
China equities have significantly de-rated on investor concerns about business model monetization and negative economic surprises, but he expects policy support especially in the second half and sees this as a technically good strategic positioning opportunity.
FXI LONG
Positive global equities despite downside risk
He remains positive on global equities because broad global spending and investment themes are driving economic growth, though he keeps one eye on downside risk.
VT LONG
Diaspora inflows bolster rupee stability
India's diaspora deposit scheme delivered around $127 billion to $136 billion, far above estimates and about 3.1 percent of GDP; the dollars are swapped directly with the RBI, swelling reserves and giving the central bank more firepower to intervene and keep the rupee steady.
Indian rupee WATCH
Long equity volatility protects downside
He thinks long equity volatility is a very good opportunity because implied volatility has stayed low, individual stock volatility is high, and it allows portfolios to keep upside while protecting downside through optionality.
Equity volatility LONG
Taiwan chip demand ten-year supercycle
Taiwan semiconductor suppliers at SemiCon Taiwan say they do not see a fallback in demand at least into the early part of next decade, with one data-center NAND flash controller maker calling it a ten-year supercycle, so capacity and labor are bigger concerns than demand.
Taiwan semiconductor suppliers LONG
Gold target $5000, diversification intact
UBS's Joni Teves expects gold to edge higher to a $5,000 target because investor diversification, fiscal and debt sustainability concerns, central bank buying including China, and seasonal physical demand remain intact, with risks increasingly skewed to the upside.
GLD LONG
Silver to outperform gold into year-end
Silver has the potential to outperform gold into year-end due to its high beta to gold, supportive supply and demand fundamentals, and longer-term demand from vehicle electrification.
SILVER LONG
India vulnerable to yields and oil
India's foreign inflow recovery is at risk because higher global bond yields and oil prices reduce emerging-market appeal; Indian equities are expensive relative to EM and Asian peers, earnings growth is just starting, 90 percent of FPI holdings are US-based, and a weak rupee makes returns less favorable.
Indian equities AVOID
HIGH
10:00
Sep 03
Sep 03
Thread Guy
8h
HOOD 1ST
PUMP.FUN 1ST
PONS 1ST
FWA
Bonercoin
▾
HIGH
Robinhood Chain ecosystem is long-term opportunity.
Robinhood Chain resembles Solana Q4 2023 or Base Q1 2024 as an upstart ecosystem starting a longer rally, not a flash in the pan; Robinhood is a powerful distribution platform planning equities, collectibles, and portfolio assets onchain, and the chain did $3 million in network revenue in a day, so if crypto is in a bull market, investors need to be positioned on Robinhood Chain.
HOOD LONG
Launchpads with revenue are permanently underpriced.
Launchpads like Pump.fun and PONS have the clearest product-market fit in crypto, do millions of dollars in daily revenue even in bear markets, and trade at low buyback multiples; Pump.fun was around 10-15x FDV while PONS was around 1-2x, so launchpads are permanently underpriced and both are undervalued in an onchain bull market.
PUMP.FUN LONG
PONS LONG
FWA token alignment should eventually work.
FWA is another example of aligning users through a day-one token and he remains fully positioned; tokens are good for aligning incentives and attracting attention, so FWA should have its day in the sun even if it has lagged lately.
FWA LONG
Stock-paired memecoins tie cultural assets upward.
He is very bullish on Robinhood Chain's stock-paired memecoin primitive: AMM pools tie a memecoin directly to the underlying value driver, so a HIMS-paired coin like Bonercoin can track HIMS moves; pairing AI memes to Nvidia or pre-IPO shares instead of ETH raises ceilings and brings stock supply onchain.
Bonercoin LONG
Robinhood Chain stock-paired memecoins LONG
Bitcoin is bullish after worst bear market.
He is a permanent Bitcoin bull; with Bitcoin having held despite Saylor selling and lingering macro overhangs, it is hard to envision downside outside a macro collapse, so crypto is in bullish consolidation and now needs any reason to go up, with more reasons up than down.
BTC LONG
Solana benefits from Robinhood user spillover.
Rather than treating Solana and Robinhood Chain purely as PvP, he wants to be long both because Robinhood Chain can onboard new users and spill over to Solana, similar to Q4 2024 when Pump.fun and Virtuals both rallied.
SOL LONG
Avoid illiquid stock-paired memecoins during weekends.
Stock tokens on Robinhood Chain can only mint and redeem during market hours, so on weekends there is no arbitrage supply; illiquid onchain names like AMC can depeg dramatically, so traders should be careful buying stock-paired memecoins with poor onchain liquidity when markets are closed.
AMC onchain token AVOID
HIGH
10:00
Sep 03
Sep 03
SPY
TLT
▾
HIGH
Weak jobs push yields down, stocks up.
Park argues that US employment is already soft, and because consumption is about 70% of the US economy, weaker jobs will slow consumption and GDP growth, which will bring real yields down and push interest rates lower next year; that expected decline in yields should let the equity market rise even if 10-year Treasury yields trade in a 3.8%-4.5%/5% range.
SPY LONG
Rising yields create long-term bond opportunity.
He says the current rise in bond yields is not a disorderly bond dumping but is creating a rare long-term fixed-income opportunity: the MOVE index remains below its long-term average, the speed of rate increases and drawdowns are far milder than in 2022, and fixed-income managers such as PIMCO's global bond CIO and Steven Miller see current yields as attractive for long-term bond and fixed-income investors.
TLT LONG
HIGH
09:26
Sep 03
Sep 03
The Block
8h
AVAX
RWA perpetuals
ENA 1ST
HYPE 1ST
Black Opal
▾
HIGH
Avalanche wins as invisible embedded finance infrastructure.
Avalanche is positioning itself as the invisible infrastructure layer for consumer and embedded finance. EthenaPay launching exclusively on Avalanche shows the network can support better fintech products, while the payment collective, stablecoin/card rails, and RWA/tokenization push are designed to make Avalanche the backend for next-generation financial apps and draw non-crypto users.
AVAX LONG
RWA perps expand market to $150T.
Guy argues real-world asset perpetuals are a larger opportunity than crypto perpetuals, expanding the relevant market from about $2.5 trillion of crypto to roughly $150 trillion of traditional assets. He notes RWA perp volumes on Hyperliquid have already flipped crypto perps and views perps as the most efficient instrument for simple leveraged long/short exposure, making RWA perps/tokenization one of his highest-conviction growth areas.
RWA perpetuals LONG
HYPE LONG
EthenaPay vertical integration drives Ethena growth.
EthenaPay is Ethena's direct-to-consumer neobank built around save, send, and spend. It is the first time a dollar issuer at Ethena's scale has vertically integrated stablecoin issuance, yield generation, card interchange, on/off-ramps, and multi-currency savings, allowing Ethena to capture margins, offer the best savings yield, free FX and free on-ramps, and target a much larger non-crypto user base, which should help scale USDe supply back toward prior highs and beyond.
ENA LONG
Avalanche RWA products like Black Opal grow.
Avalanche is building out a real-world asset and credit/receivables stack. John specifically calls Black Opal a great product with fantastic yield and expects an RWA looping or RWA rush to bring capital back, with Securitize and other tokenization platforms forming a full on-chain finance stack that benefits Avalanche.
Black Opal LONG
HIGH
09:12
Sep 03
Sep 03
BNO
▾
LOW
Brent crude muted as escalation stays contained
Despite renewed US-Iran military escalation and Iranian retaliation against Gulf states, Brent crude has not moved much because traders view the escalation as contained and short-lived; energy traders are watching whether the back-and-forth stays contained or broadens while diplomacy remains absent.
BNO WATCH
LOW
09:07
Sep 03
Sep 03
005930.KS FLIP
000660.KS
MU
SNDK
285A.T
▾
HIGH
Foreign rebalancing not over; buybacks enable selling.
Foreign investors have not finished reducing their Korea exposure because their Korea market weight is still elevated. Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix buybacks are giving foreign investors a good opportunity to sell into strength, so there is still more selling capacity than fresh buying demand near term.
005930.KS AVOID
000660.KS AVOID
EWY AVOID
Watch Micron/SanDisk/Kioxia to lead Korean memory.
Foreign inflows into Korean memory names will only resume if global storage and memory names such as Micron, SanDisk, and Kioxia rally first. That would signal renewed global appetite for memory and justify buying Korean memory stocks; until then, there is no FX-led foreign buying support.
MU WATCH
SNDK WATCH
285A.T WATCH
Energy bottlenecks delay AI data center buildouts.
AI earnings and capex are strong, but the market is worried about execution because data center buildouts face power bottlenecks. PJM capacity auction prices rose about 10x year-on-year, new AI data centers may be excluded from grid interconnection, Bloom Energy fuel cells are limited to about 2GW, LNG prices are rising, and nuclear is not being approved, so near-term AI infrastructure delivery is uncertain.
SMH WATCH
One-year horizon: semiconductors likely higher.
For investors who can wait one year and do not need to trade short-term volatility, semiconductors are likely higher than current levels. Therefore, long-term holders with capacity should hold through this volatile period rather than panic.
Korean semiconductor sector LONG
Short-term traders should raise cash.
If an investor is already trading short-term and has taken losses, the speaker advises selling and raising cash rather than forcing positions in a low-visibility, liquidity-constrained tape. Long-term holders with deeper losses are told to hold.
CASH LONG
Yen carry unwind risk remains low.
The yen carry unwind risk is currently low because Japan is raising rates while also easing fiscal policy to manage its enormous debt burden; this prevents strong yen appreciation. Even if the BOJ hikes, rapid or aggressive tightening is unlikely, so a fast carry-trade unwind is not expected.
FXY WATCH
Watch 10yr 5%, DXY 100, Brent 100.
The speaker is monitoring three break levels for a potential major market shock: US 10-year Treasury yield above 5%, the US Dollar Index above 100, and Brent crude above $100. If any one breaks, the market impact could be severe.
US10Y WATCH
DXY WATCH
Weak payrolls would hit consumer and banks.
If the upcoming nonfarm payroll report is much weaker than expected, markets will question the AI-led growth narrative and start seeing broader US economic weakness; consumer discretionary and bank stocks would likely be hit. Employment merely in line is the benign outcome.
XLY WATCH
KBE WATCH
Global bond selloff reflects debt debasement distrust.
Global government bond yields are rising not just on US strength but because markets distrust countries that are debasing their currencies and inflating away debt; this debasement trade is visible in Europe and Japan as well. The speaker therefore cannot fully trust dovish Fed messaging, and bond selloff risk remains.
IEF SHORT
Oil remains elevated on unresolved Mideast risk.
Oil is not breaking down because the market sees the Iran-Trump tanker truce as incomplete and the Middle East conflict as unresolved. WTI is holding above $90 and Brent remains elevated, with geopolitical risk premium keeping oil sticky. High oil is becoming a persistent inflation input.
WTI LONG
BNO LONG
HIGH
09:00
Sep 03
Sep 03
000660.KS 1ST
005930.KS 1ST
095610.KQ 1ST
084370.KQ 1ST
240810.KQ 1ST
▾
HIGH
Memory shortage keeps Samsung, SK hynix positive
Memory shortage is continuing, supported by long-term supply agreements and AI-driven HBM/legacy demand; on-device AI, robotics, and autonomous driving are still in early stages but will add demand. He expects memory prices to stay firm short term and Samsung Electronics/SK hynix earnings to remain positive in the second half.
000660.KS LONG
Memory shortage keeps Samsung, SK hynix positive
TSMC's capacity shortage is pushing orders to Samsung foundry, and Samsung cannot handle all orders, so OSAT subcontractors get spillover. Foundry utilization is likely to exceed 100%. The key is 2nm yield: TSMC is around 70-80% while Samsung is around 55%; improving Samsung's yield by even 10% would sharply raise output and lower financial risk, making Samsung more attractive than SK hynix on foundry operating leverage.
005930.KS LONG
Accelerated capex benefits front-end deposition equipment
Samsung and SK hynix are accelerating Yongin and Pyeongtaek capex by about two years; front-end expansion requires equipment first. Deposition equipment is receiving the most attention, with TES, Eugene Technology, and Wonik IPS as representative beneficiaries. He sees the investment momentum as structural and worth following medium-to-long term.
095610.KQ LONG
084370.KQ LONG
240810.KQ LONG
SOCAMM2 ramp drives substrate suppliers
SOCAMM2 is spreading as a low-power, low-heat, efficient alternative in servers, notebooks, and AI PCs. Amazon's 2 million GPU supply implies about 16 million SOCAMM2 units; Samsung, SK hynix, and Micron are moving to mass production in H2. Simmtech, Korea Circuit, Daeduck Electronics, and TLB are rising on substrate demand, and Simmtech is investing KRW 270 billion to expand capacity.
222800.KQ LONG
007810.KS LONG
353200.KS LONG
TLB LONG
China memory expansion benefits Korean equipment makers
China's CXMT/YMTC expansion and US restrictions on American semiconductor equipment create a two-track opportunity for Korean equipment makers with Chinese exposure. When CXMT listed, Korean equipment names with Chinese parent or subsidiary ties rose even while Samsung and SK hynix fell. He sees China's memory push as an opportunity for these equipment suppliers rather than a near-term threat to Korean majors.
Korean semiconductor equipment with China exposure LONG
Back-end process is most attractive semiconductor area
He prefers back-end/OSAT over front-end because HBM is essentially a stacking/back-end process, advanced packaging is combining diverse chips, and the HBM3-to-HBM4 transition requires debond/reflow and test equipment. SFA Semiconductor is outsourcing Samsung DDR5, Hana Micron has packaging/module turnkey capability, Nepes is also named, PSK Holdings supplies HBM4 debonding/reflow equipment, and UniTest/Tron/Intekplus are test/inspection beneficiaries; UniTest has already turned around on HBM4 burn-in test supply to SK hynix.
036540.KQ LONG
067310.KQ LONG
200470.KQ LONG
031980.KQ LONG
086390.KQ LONG
TRX LONG
Intekplus LONG
Semiconductor boom lifts materials and consumables
Continued semiconductor boom should drive materials/consumables demand. He names Dongjin Semichem, Soulbrain, and Woldex, noting materials names are often undervalued because of conservative IR. He also likes silicon carbide ring component names TCK, KNGJ, and Woldex because deposition/etch demand makes those consumables necessary.
005290.KQ LONG
357780.KQ LONG
Woldex LONG
TECK LONG
KNGJ LONG
HIGH
08:30
Sep 03
Sep 03
005930.KS FLIP
034020.KS
Hyundai Engineering & Construction
090460.KS
SMH
▾
HIGH
Korean memory is lower priority for foreigners.
He argues foreign investors are not abandoning memory globally but are prioritizing US memory and semiconductor names over Korean names. Samsung Electronics and SK hynix look cheap at roughly 3.5-3.8x, but remain underweight because of supply and positioning, not AI/memory fundamentals. Until buybacks finish around October and third-quarter earnings give momentum, Korean memory is a lower priority and should be approached cautiously.
005930.KS AVOID
000660.KS AVOID
Nuclear-value-chain rally likely; Doosan top.
A positive broker report on the Korean nuclear power value chain named Doosan Enerbility as top pick, followed by Hyundai Construction and BH. Lee says project expectations support the group and he personally sees potential for nuclear-related names to rally further.
034020.KS LONG
Hyundai Engineering & Construction LONG
090460.KS LONG
Keep AI/memory exposure; Micron is catalyst.
Kim argues portfolios still need AI and memory semiconductor exposure because AI cannot continue without memory, and completely exiting would risk missing upside. However, short-term momentum has been exhausted after Nvidia and Broadcom; the next clear catalyst is Micron's earnings on October 1, so this is a hold/watch exposure rather than an aggressive chase.
SMH LONG
MU WATCH
Sell secondary battery stocks into strength.
Lee says secondary battery stocks should not be held as a continuing position; they are a fast-moving rotation trade. He would sell into rallies because the group moves quickly and he does not recommend chasing it here.
Korean secondary battery sector AVOID
Korean financials lead on sticky high rates.
He says Korean financials are the most notable sector because interest rates remain high and are likely to stay at a new elevated level. Even when the market reversed higher after the midday drop, financials bounced hardest, showing real sector leadership. With few large non-AI sectors in Korea, institutional money rotates into financials, and the consensus is to barbell financials with AI/semiconductors.
KBE LONG
Banks preferred; KB Financial breaking range.
Within Korean financials, Lee says banks are the top preference, followed by non-life insurers and life insurers, with securities last. KB Financial has broken above a long box range on rising bottom support; its PBR is near 1.03x and could expand toward 1.2x, so banks are the easiest way to get financial-sector exposure.
105560.KS LONG
Meritz breaks range; buy dips.
Meritz Financial Group has a strong shareholder-return and dividend policy, and its weekly chart has broken out of a long box range. Lee says a pullback toward the prior breakout area around 125,000 won can be used as a reference level for adding or watching the stock.
138040.KS LONG
Avoid Korean securities; Mirae regulatory overhang.
Lee says Korean securities stocks are unattractive near-term because Mirae Asset Securities is under political and regulatory attack over single-stock ETF issues and market trading volumes are weak. Even Samsung Securities is not free from the sector overhang, and securities rank last within financials.
006800.KS AVOID
Korean Securities Sector AVOID
Sell Korean cosmetics into strength.
Kim says the APR scare appears overblown: the flagged lot was not from official distribution, Singapore's official tests found no banned substance, and there is no administrative action or earnings impact. He advises investors not to panic-sell other cosmetics names on unconfirmed fears; only if it becomes a broad category problem should they sell.
KORU AVOID
APR AVOID
Alteogen short squeeze and Q3 beat likely.
Alteogen has fallen despite two positive licensing deals because heavy short selling and delayed KOSDAQ policy have pressured sentiment, not company fundamentals. Lee sees short-covering potential, expects third-quarter earnings to beat guidance on strong Keytruda SC penetration and milestone inflows, notes analyst targets far above the current price, and says he would buy more if he had cash.
196170.KQ LONG
HIGH
08:27
Sep 03
Sep 03
China EV ETF
Korean secondary battery stocks
QQQ
SPY
TLT
▾
HIGH
Broad China EV ETF faced structural consolidation.
New technology booms such as China's EV build-out typically produce a first wave, overinvestment across hundreds of companies, then a brutal second-wave consolidation triggered by high rates. A broad China EV ETF owns many pre-shakeout names that fail or lose market share, while the eventual winners such as BYD capture the market afterward, so the broad ETF itself tends to underperform during the consolidation.
China EV ETF AVOID
Korean secondary batteries are turning up.
He sees Korean secondary battery stocks starting a turnaround after a long drawdown from their 2021-2022 highs. He expects a grinding recovery at least through the second half of next year, so existing holders can wait rather than sell at losses.
Korean secondary battery stocks LONG
Buy QQQ/SPY long term; average down.
He supports dollar-cost averaging into U.S. index ETFs such as QQQ or S&P 500 for a child's long-term account. Because it is an index, he says drawdowns of 20-30% are opportunities to aggressively average down with cash, since the index eventually recovers; he cautions against applying the same averaging-down logic to individual stocks.
QQQ LONG
Expect U.S. stocks rally as rates fall.
September is seasonally weak for the S&P 500, with average returns negative since 1928 and even weaker in midterm-election years. Buyback blackouts begin around September 12, personal investor buying is weak, and systematic flow asymmetry is negative. This creates a tactical pullback or consolidation setup, though heavy defensive positioning may limit downside.
SPY LONG
Long-term bonds are an opportunity now.
The rise in U.S. Treasury yields is gradual and driven more by strong nominal growth and normalization than by inflation panic. Bond market volatility is below stress levels, and fixed-income managers quoted in the article argue this is one of the best long-term bond opportunities in a decade; fixed income investors should not panic but consider duration at these yields.
TLT LONG
Korean high-dividend stocks look seasonally attractive.
Korean high-dividend stocks are entering a favorable seasonal period. KOSPI manufacturing earnings and free cash flow have surged, the government's new separate dividend taxation incentivizes companies to raise payout ratios, and the market is looking for names with 6%+ dividend yields and room for dividend growth.
Korean high-dividend stocks LONG
Korean preferred shares are undervalued dividend plays.
Korean preferred stocks are another dividend-related route: they trade at about a 45% average discount to common shares, and Samsung Electronics is expected to decide buybacks in January, with history showing that increased preferred-share buybacks can narrow the common/preferred discount.
Korean preferred stocks LONG
K-pop stocks are mispriced opportunity.
K-pop demand is still strong despite negative sentiment and halved stock prices. BTS tour sellouts, Stray Kids' nine Billboard 200 No.1 albums, and the behavioral 'reminiscence bump' that locks in youthful music tastes suggest current demand continues; the perceived crisis is not reality, creating investment opportunity in representative entertainment stocks.
352820.KS LONG
041510.KQ LONG
035900.KQ LONG
122870.KQ LONG
HIGH
08:03
Sep 03
Sep 03
FXY 1ST
TLT
▾
HIGH
Yen gains on BOJ, GPIF repatriation
The yen is getting a tailwind from background factors: a hawkish BOJ member left open the possibility of a bigger-than-25-basis-point or back-to-back hike, short-term rate markets are pricing beyond 25bp, and there is speculation GPIF may repatriate capital from US bonds back into Japanese bonds, giving yen bulls more confidence.
FXY LONG
Yields rise further; bond prices fall
Global bond yields are likely to rise further because we are in a higher interest-rate environment, more developed-market central banks are likely to keep raising rates, and bond prices are grinding lower even though coupon income cushions holders. The move is gradual but points to continued downside for bond prices.
TLT SHORT
HIGH
08:00
Sep 03
Sep 03
US 10Y Treasury
NAND flash memory
005930.KS
YMTC
000660.KS
▾
HIGH
US 10-year yields likely capped near election
US 10-year Treasury yields are unlikely to run to 5.0% because the Trump administration will not tolerate runaway rates before the midterm elections; if yields calm or turn down, the market can refocus on earnings and shareholder returns and may stage a year-end rally.
US 10Y Treasury LONG
YMTC bigger medium-term threat than CXMT
In Chinese memory competition, CXMT is less worrying because the DRAM tech gap is about three years and EUV restrictions may widen Korea's HBM lead; YMTC is the more serious medium-term threat in NAND with 14% global share, X-stacking capability and an accelerated IPO, but the short-term threat is limited, so NAND/YMTC should be watched rather than feared now.
NAND flash memory WATCH
YMTC WATCH
Accumulate Samsung, SK hynix as shareholder-return stocks
US semiconductor tariff concerns on Korean DRAM are overblown: DRAM supply is an oligopoly of Samsung, SK hynix, Micron plus CXMT, making punitive tariffs unrealistic and likely a US pressure tactic; hyperscalers would bear added costs and opposition or lobbying would be strong, so the tariff risk is largely already in prices.
005930.KS LONG
000660.KS LONG
Korean cosmetics reasonable valuation; trade export catalysts
Korean cosmetics stocks are an attractive short-term trading area because valuations are reasonable at about 15-20x forward P/E, APR has near 100% ROE, and monthly export statistics provide repeated catalysts; the suggested strategy is to buy on dips and take profits when strong export data or stock pops arrive.
APR LONG
Cosmax LONG
Korean Kolmar LONG
Korean cosmetics LONG
Sell secondary batteries into strength
Secondary battery stocks have rallied on AS-related expectations, but valuations are stretched against earnings: L&F trades near 7x PBR and Samsung SDI around 1.9x forward PBR, yet the sector still makes little profit; the speaker suggests selling into strength rather than chasing.
L&F AVOID
006400.KS AVOID
Korean secondary battery stocks AVOID
Favor construction/EPC over nuclear for US projects
Korean construction/EPC names are better-positioned beneficiaries than popular nuclear names for the upcoming US-Korea strategic investment: the project may shift to a Texas gas combined-cycle power project, with Samsung C&T and Hyundai E&C as EPC participants and Doosan Enerbility as gas turbine supplier; construction valuations are more acceptable and they also benefit from domestic data center construction and government land supply.
028260.KS LONG
000720.KS LONG
034020.KS LONG
HIGH
06:55
Sep 03
Sep 03
KBE 1ST
DXJ
AVGO 1ST
JGBUX 1ST
DXY 1ST
▾
HIGH
Asian banks benefit from rising rates.
Asian financials are rallying with Korean banks and Japanese banks gaining because both central banks are expected to continue raising rates, which would likely benefit banks and fixed income investments.
KBE LONG
DXJ LONG
Broadcom benefits from AI chip diversification.
Broadcom's large customers are diversifying away from being solely reliant on Nvidia, and expanding AI chip demand is where Broadcom comes in; Broadcom is riding the same AI wave rather than posing a major threat to Nvidia.
AVGO LONG
JGBs may get reallocation inflows.
A likely early GPIF-style reallocation could send more money into JGBs, while Japanese investors continue to be net sellers of global bonds, making markets jittery about running the yen down further.
JGBUX LONG
Dollar likely weakens modestly.
Despite high US dollar interest rates, forward premium math means investors may be thinking the US dollar is probably going to weaken a bit, though not too much.
DXY SHORT
Bond selloff creates high-quality income.
The bond selloff has created fixed income opportunities: investors can get almost 5% yield over 10 years and around 6% yields in high-quality US dollar credit with little default risk, and she does not expect US inflation to run amok again.
TLT LONG
LQD LONG
IG credit has mispriced opportunities.
Rating agencies are not pricing risk properly in parts of the investment-grade market, creating mispriced opportunities even though overall spreads are not hugely concerning.
Investment-grade bonds LONG
Yen intervention risk near 160.
The yen is at risk of intervention around the 160 psychological level, and a more aggressive Bank of Japan would support the currency, so the BOJ meeting is a key focus.
FXY WATCH
AI value rotates to Dell.
AI infrastructure spending is maturing and value is rotating up the stack from chips to companies that translate chip demand into deployable solutions, with Dell surging 16% after raising its revenue outlook.
DELL LONG
Chevron grows Venezuela production significantly.
Chevron is investing $7 billion in three Venezuelan joint ventures and plans to grow production from about 250,000 barrels today to over 600,000 by 2031, with heavy oil reserves supporting decades of output.
CVX LONG
HIGH
06:50
Sep 03
Sep 03
FXY
TSM
MU
EEM
FXI 1ST
▾
HIGH
Yen intervention risk near 160.
The yen strengthened sharply after hawkish Bank of Japan comments and a possible intervention or rate check, with caution building around the 160 level against the dollar ahead of the BOJ decision and Japan's long holiday. The setup points to continued intervention risk and yen strength.
FXY WATCH
TSMC and Micron likely tariff-exempt winners.
The Trump administration's fresh semiconductor tariff plan is aimed at data servers and designed to incentivize US manufacturing. Companies with significant US commitments, such as TSMC and Micron, are likely to receive exemptions or be spared, while companies without that US footprint would face duties.
TSM WATCH
MU WATCH
Overweight emerging market equities.
Emirates NBD is overweight emerging market equities for secular, valuation and ownership reasons. The old world/new world shift is creating opportunities, and emerging markets are no longer as emerging as they used to be.
EEM LONG
China AI valuation and growth favorite.
China is the favorite emerging market because it is building its own AI stack at a very affordable price. Asian AI names offer similar technology to the US at better valuations and are only three to six months behind, creating a mix of valuation and growth.
FXI LONG
US yields near top; add duration.
The firm believes US yields are close to a top. It was short duration for a long time and that worked, but it is now considering adding duration. Inflation expectations are stable around 2.4%, and high yields are driven more by growth and debt than by inflation.
TLT LONG
Equities can withstand five percent yields.
High Treasury yields mainly reflect growth and heavy capital investment rather than inflation. Earnings have been spectacular, and equities can live with yields around five percent unless there is an absolute crash in bonds; there is no solvency issue.
SPY LONG
Rate hikes lift Japanese bank stocks.
Asian financial stocks are hitting record highs, led by Japan's Topix bank index, as investors expect the central banks in Japan and South Korea to continue raising rates. That rate-hike path supports bank earnings and financial sector momentum.
TOPIX-BANKS LONG
MSCI Financials Index LONG
Venezuela deals boost Chevron production.
Chevron's new Venezuela agreements allow about $7 billion of investment across three joint ventures over five years, more than tripling production to over 600,000 barrels per day by 2031. The added acreage holds many billions of barrels of reserves that will last decades, with overall capex guidance unchanged.
CVX LONG
Saudi export disruption keeps oil supply risky.
Saudi crude exports fell to the lowest level in nine years as Red Sea attacks make buyers reluctant to send tankers through Bab el-Mandeb, and the longer route around Africa adds cost and time. With Hormuz still restricted and Saudi tankers being struck, oil supply routes remain disrupted and risky.
BNO WATCH
HIGH
06:00
Sep 03
Sep 03
011170.KS
285130.KS 1ST
007690.KS 1ST
298020.KS
034020.KS
▾
HIGH
Beaten-down Korean chemical stocks are rebounding.
Lee sees money rotating into deeply beaten-down sectors, and Korean petrochemical/chemical names such as Lotte Chemical, SK Chemicals, Kukdo Chemical, and Hyosung TNC are rebounding from the bottom with improving chart patterns, making the chemical sector a supply/demand-driven recovery play.
011170.KS LONG
285130.KS LONG
007690.KS LONG
298020.KS LONG
US nuclear builds favor Korean nuclear leaders.
Lee highlights Macquarie's Korea nuclear project report prioritizing Doosan Enerbility and Hyundai Construction as U.S. nuclear projects move into full-scale progression, with the expectation-building phase now starting for Korean nuclear-exposed names.
034020.KS LONG
000720.KS LONG
Nervous market rotates into bank stocks.
With the market nervous, Lee observes funds flowing into large Korean bank holding companies such as KB Financial, Hana Financial Group, and Shinhan Financial Group as a defensive destination, supporting their outperformance.
105560.KS LONG
086790.KS LONG
055550.KS LONG
LNG project news can lift pipe/valve/steel.
Lee believes Alaska/U.S. natural gas terminal projects will proceed and Korea and Japan are likely to participate, so Korean pipe fitting/valve and steel names such as Seonggwang Bend, Taekwang Industrial, Haseong Valve, POSCO International, Nexteel, and Husteel have low price burdens and can rally on news, though he wants more confirmation before turning aggressive.
Seonggwang Bend WATCH
Taekwang Industrial WATCH
Haseong Valve WATCH
047050.KS WATCH
092790.KS WATCH
005010.KS WATCH
Battery names bounce; Samsung SDI leads.
Lee says the secondary battery sector is worth a short-term challenge after yesterday's pullback: Samsung SDI is the leading stock, while LG Energy Solution, POSCO Future M, and L&F are recovering. However, if Samsung SDI reaches the mid-600,000 won area, the rest of the group should become profit-taking territory.
006400.KS LONG
003670.KS LONG
066970.KS LONG
Alteogen short covering could spark rally.
Lee argues Alteogen's drop is supply/demand-driven and overdone; despite a record 4.4 trillion won license-out and a Halozyme litigation win, heavy short selling and weak institutional buying are suppressing it. If the stock is forced higher, aggressive short covering could drive a sharp rally similar to past secondary battery squeezes.
196170.KQ LONG
Global autos weak; Hyundai not cheap.
Lee says global autos are in a low-growth downturn: Volkswagen and Stellantis were removed from Eurostoxx50, Toyota has struggled, and Hyundai's delivery time collapse indicates high inventory. Hyundai at 9-10x valuation is not cheap, Kia at around 6x is not attracting buyers, and without robot momentum Hyundai/Kia are likely to stay under pressure.
000270.KS AVOID
005380.KS AVOID
HIGH
05:14
Sep 03
Sep 03
3PRO TV (삼프로TV)
12h
HOOD
COIN
▾
HIGH
New token issuance benefits U.S. crypto infrastructure
The SEC's Regulation Crypto creates clear registration exemption tracks for non-security token sales, which should revive new token issuance and route more listing, trading, and custody flow through U.S. crypto infrastructure. Kim names exchanges and custodians as direct beneficiaries, specifically public platforms Coinbase and Robinhood, with custody names such as Anchorage Digital and BitGo also benefiting.
HOOD LONG
COIN LONG
HIGH
05:09
Sep 03
Sep 03
FXY FLIP
JGBUX
AVGO 1ST
EWY
SNOW 1ST
▾
HIGH
BOJ hawkish shift supports Japanese yen.
The yen spike was most likely driven by a BOJ board member opening the door to a bigger-than-usual 50bp rate move and back-to-back hikes, which most traders had not expected; with the BOJ meeting weeks away, the yen is becoming more interesting and near-term supported.
FXY LONG
BOJ and fiscal discipline support JGBs.
He says the BOJ needs to raise rates and Japan must convince investors it is serious about reining in fiscal deficits; that would engender more confidence in JGBs, with long-end yields already responding and things moving in favor of Japanese assets, though it is early.
JGBUX WATCH
Broadcom AI revenue and customers support stock.
Broadcom's key positive is its very high fiscal 2028 AI revenue guidance of about $230 billion and the first-time disclosure of top four AI customers Google, OpenAI, Meta and Anthropic; as the number one custom ASIC player, it is seeing more diversification and growth from new frontier-lab programs, easing competitive concerns.
AVGO LONG
AI fundamentals rock-solid; Taiwan Korea benefit.
Solid U.S. AI results from Broadcom, Snowflake and HP show AI trade fundamentals are rock-solid; guidance is expanding beyond GPUs and CPUs across the AI ecosystem, helping Taiwan and Korea semiconductor names pick back up.
EWY LONG
Snowflake emerging AI compute winner.
Snowflake is becoming a new driver of the AI trade by creating a new market for computer processing power outside the traditional players and making significant headway in AI compute.
SNOW LONG
Asian banks lead second-half alpha.
Asian banks have held in during big down days and are becoming a bigger driver of equity returns in the second half, with alpha beating beta; Chinese banks are really strong and Japanese banks are beating tech by a wide margin.
DXJ LONG
Chevron triples Venezuela oil production.
Chevron reached agreements to invest $7 billion through three joint ventures in Venezuela over five years, tripling production from the pre-Trump level to about 600,000 barrels per day by 2031; this is a win for U.S. refiners and adds decades-long reserve development.
CVX LONG
Merck Electronics benefits from AI chip demand.
Merck Electronics sees AI as the biggest demand driver by far, with strong data center buildout and hyperscaler capex; its semiconductor solutions unit grew 12% in Q2, and the company is investing in the U.S., Taiwan and Japan to follow customers.
MRK.DE LONG
China robotics and AI hot theme.
China has made a very strong statement in AI, will likely get into HBM, and is well placed in humanoid robotics; the Unitree IPO and related China/Hong Kong futuristic names are a hot investment theme with future earnings difficult to price and volatility likely.
China robotics/humanoid robots LONG
Emerging market bonds resilient to selloff.
Emerging market funds have bucked the global bond selloff because high-yield EM currency carry funded by dollars has produced steady positive returns, EM governments have contained fiscal deficits, and supply is less crowded than developed sovereigns.
Emerging market bonds LONG
EMLC LONG
AI fundamentals rock-solid; Taiwan Korea benefit.
Taiwan is gaining as an integrated semiconductor nation because TSMC's supply chain is heavily domestic, capacity is running out, chipmaking tool estimates are rising 1.9x, and local retail investors have kept risk balanced despite foreign outflows.
EWT LONG
TSM LONG
Asian banks lead second-half alpha.
Chinese banks have materially outperformed as Chinese fiscal restraint repaired the balance-sheet perception, and global investors who avoided the sector are now looking behind the ball; macro stability supports the banks even as equity supply weighs on China tech.
KBA LONG
Shipping rates and volumes lift MOL.
Mitsui O.S.K. Lines revised up its forecast because the Hormuz closure forced longer shipping routes and more ships, pushing up freight rates, while trade volumes are solid and climate incidents such as typhoons and Panama Canal bottlenecks added disruption.
MSLOY LONG
HIGH
04:56
Sep 03
Sep 03
EUR/JPY
GBP/JPY
Japan 30-year government bonds
Global government bonds
Asia local bonds
▾
HIGH
Yen has room to appreciate further.
The yen surged on BOJ hawk speculation, and with the September BOJ meeting approaching and traders positioning for a possible larger hike, there is room for the yen to appreciate further, particularly against the euro and pound, while dollar-yen is more difficult but still has upside yen risk.
EUR/JPY SHORT
GBP/JPY SHORT
JPY LONG
Japan 30-year auction globally crucial.
The 30-year JGB auction is huge and globally important because Japan's higher term premium has been feeding into U.S., German and UK yields; conditions look decent so it may pass, but a failure would be bad for global rates.
Japan 30-year government bonds WATCH
Bond valuations now offer attractive compensation.
Long-end term premium stress will persist until fiscal normalization, but current valuations and carry compensation in bond and fixed-income products are sufficient to offset potential capital losses, creating an attractive macro setup for bonds generally.
Global government bonds LONG
TLT LONG
Prefer Asia and EM local bonds.
Asian local and EM local markets have less competing hyperscaler bond supply than developed markets, and domestic banks buy their own government debt, giving value creation with better alpha asymmetry.
Asia local bonds LONG
EM local bonds LONG
Short dollar, buy North Asia currencies.
Capital that went into U.S. growth stocks is coming back into the export cycle, supporting a capital repatriation normalization theme that is bullish for the yen, Korean won and Taiwan dollar; he remains short the dollar.
USD SHORT
KRW LONG
TWD LONG
Food-delivery price war easing structurally.
The China food-delivery price war is fading faster than expected, with better cost discipline and narrowing quick-commerce losses for JD and Alibaba; estimates have been revised up and shares have rebounded, with the improvement seen as structural rather than seasonal.
JD LONG
BABA LONG
Asian high yield deep value later.
Indonesia, Philippines and India high-yield assets are still struggling because of extended higher oil prices, fiscal deficits and term premium stress, but they are deep value and could be attractive once oil and term premium normalize, more of a next-year setup.
Indonesia high-yield bonds WATCH
Philippines high-yield bonds WATCH
India high-yield bonds WATCH
Enflame is a Tencent AI bet.
Enflame's Tencent relationship is the big differentiator: Tencent is both a major consumer and a major backer, so investing in Enflame is effectively a bet on Tencent's AI ambitions and how far ahead Tencent can push.
Enflame WATCH
China government bonds look unattractive.
The acceleration in China government bond issuance is largely priced in, and with China's long yields low compared to global peers, fund managers see other fixed-income markets as more attractive; the impact on China government bonds is negative.
CBON AVOID
Yuan likely appreciates gradually.
The PBOC is expected to allow gradual yuan appreciation, with state banks managing the currency around 6.72 per dollar, low volatility, and Goldman seeing the yuan strengthening toward 5 per dollar over the next several years.
USD/CNY SHORT
CNY LONG
Asian banks offer sharp risk-adjusted exposure.
Asian banking and financials have one of the sharpest risk-adjusted profiles in Asia because they track the tech boom, cash flows into regional economies and rate pressure; Korean and Japanese financials have been strong.
Korean financials LONG
DXJ LONG
Equity market tone remains strong.
The equity market tone is still strong because nominal growth is strong, corporate earnings are coming through and froth has come off in momentum; the AI story is positive but equity leadership should broaden.
VT LONG
Tactical value in long government bonds.
After being negative on bonds earlier, she now sees tactical value in government bonds, especially the long end, because more rate hikes are now priced at the front end and inflation should be well behaved.
US 30-year Treasuries LONG
IEF LONG
Little value in credit now.
She sees little value in credit right now even as she remains positive on the AI story; she prefers diversified equity exposure rather than chasing credit.
LQD AVOID
Favor quality and value equities.
After a worrying momentum-versus-quality divergence, she sees opportunity in quality and value stocks to diversify AI risk instead of chasing momentum froth.
High-quality stocks LONG
Value stocks LONG
Stay positive on Asia and China.
She remains positive on Asia because the region offers the best growth opportunity outside the U.S., and China is the economy that can compete with U.S. tech, so investors should diversify geographically away from U.S.-only exposure.
AAXJ LONG
FXI LONG
Gold is still a useful hedge.
Gold remains a better hedge than bonds against fiscal sustainability and central-bank credibility concerns; even after rate repricing and bond yields rising, there is still a role for gold.
GLD LONG
Taiwan chip supply chain is bullish.
There is broad bullishness in Taiwan's semiconductor supply chain because the AI chipmaking supercycle is so strong in the U.S. and elsewhere, and companies are adding U.S. investments while remaining critical suppliers.
Taiwan Semiconductor Supply Chain LONG
TSM LONG
Dollar-yen sustained reversal still distant.
Even if the BOJ hikes 25 basis points in September, deeply negative real rates and Japan's term premium mean conditions for a sustained dollar-yen reversal are still some way away; he expects dollar-yen to remain around 160, contained between about 155 and 164, with year-end forecast 160-161.
USD/JPY LONG
Swiss franc is preeminent safe haven.
In a larger risk-off correction through September-October, the U.S. dollar would still hold up well, but the Swiss franc is proving itself the preeminent safe-haven currency, outperforming the dollar.
CHF LONG
Emerging market local debt is winning.
Emerging markets are the surprise winner in the global bond rout: high-yielding EM sovereign yields have fallen since March and the dollar-funded carry trade has returned 22% since end-2024, with lower supply and seven quarters of capital gains.
Emerging market local bonds LONG
High-yield EM sovereign bonds LONG
HIGH
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