Is the Semiconductor Plunge Over? Reasons to Hold Until the Previous High Point

Summary

Jeong Tae-geun, Director at Mireuk Economic Research Institute, appears on the last trading day of July to argue the semiconductor plunge is likely over for now. He expects a technical bounce driven by intact earnings estimates at Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, which could retest the previous high. He also favors financial stocks on higher rates and advises avoiding KOSDAQ secondary battery and biotech names. The conversation emphasizes disciplined, self-interested trading and using historical patterns to navigate the current volatile market.

• Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix earnings estimates have not been cut despite the 40% stock drop, creating an attractive valuation setup.
• The speaker expects a technical bounce that could reach the previous high, not a new uptrend, and plans to sell into strength.
• Financial stocks, especially banks and insurers, are seen as beneficiaries of higher interest rates and bond portfolio gains.
• KOSDAQ secondary battery and biotech sectors are viewed as unattractive due to weak index dynamics and market focus on KOSPI leaders.
• The rate of change in semiconductor earnings growth and memory prices is peaking, limiting upside beyond the previous high.
• Historical analogues (2007, 2011, 2015) suggest the market may find a floor after a sharp correction when the leader rebounds.
• NVIDIA’s earnings are no longer a strong catalyst because year-on-year growth has decelerated significantly.
• The speaker advocates a self-interested, unemotional approach, seeing the market as a zero-sum battlefield.