ЛУЧШИЕ ИДЕИ на 2026 год | Инвест ГРОГ с Солодиным
Speakers
Dmitry Solodin
— Trader / Investor
Summary
Dmitry Solodin presents his 2026 investment roadmap, organized around AI capex, energy, a commodity supercycle, and a Great Rotation from expensive mega-cap tech into cheaper profitable companies. He combines Elliott-wave technical analysis with cash-flow, valuation, buyback, and sector-fundamental arguments, naming many US, commodity, and Russian equity ideas. He warns that commodities and cyclicals are volatile and stresses risk management, hedging, and position sizing.
- AI capex remains the top 2026 theme, benefiting infrastructure and semiconductor suppliers.
- Energy is favored for dollar weakness, AI power demand, late-cycle performance, and shareholder returns.
- Commodities are seen entering a new up-wave, with copper, lithium, aluminum, gold, and softs highlighted.
- Great Rotation is expected from overvalued mega-cap tech into discounted profitable software, healthcare, media, and small caps.
- Named AI ideas include Dell, Nvidia, Arista, and Datadog, with Nvidia viewed as expensive.
- Named rotation ideas include UNH, Adobe, Disney, Intuit, ServiceNow, Duolingo, Workday, Salesforce, PayPal, TTD, POWL, VRT, DOCN, and LYFT.
- Russian market setups include NLMK, Novatek, Gazprom, Tinkoff, and Sber, though with lower conviction.
- Risk management is emphasized due to commodity volatility, cyclicality, and event shocks.
Ideas
BioMarin has predictable growing cash flows
He avoids most biotechs except those with predictable and growing cash flows. BioMarin fits that exception and is periodically bought in his rotation.
AI capex drives infrastructure and semiconductors
AI capex remains the dominant 2026 trend. Top five cloud companies plan about $602B of 2026 capex, up 36%, with roughly 75% for AI infrastructure such as data centers, servers, and GPUs. These are multi-year contracts and cannot be easily cancelled; semiconductor industry revenue may reach $1T, with over half tied to data centers and AI chips. He favors AI infrastructure suppliers over speculative AI startups.
Energy benefits from dollar weakness and returns
Energy is a major 2026 trend. A weaker dollar lifts dollar-denominated energy, supply-chain fragmentation and AI data-center electricity demand add support, and energy historically performs well in late-cycle or stagflation phases. Oil majors are disciplined and distribute up to 78% of free cash flow via dividends and buybacks, offering price resilience and shareholder returns.
Commodity supercycle third wave is starting
The commodity supercycle began in 2020. The first up phase was 2021-22, a correction followed, and a new third wave may be starting, potentially lasting into the mid-2030s. Metals, precious metals, and some energy commodities are supported by structural deficits, electrification, data centers, and supply constraints, though commodities are volatile and should not be shorted carelessly.
Gold can keep making new highs
Gold continues to receive support as a defensive asset amid geopolitical uncertainty and a pause in rate hikes. Analysts expect the rally to continue and prices to make new all-time highs; he agrees, though the pace may slow.
US natural gas can spike higher
US natural gas has already started a sharp move due to cold weather. In commodity shock scenarios, gas can spike violently, possibly toward $10-$15, but this is volatile and risk must be controlled.
Capital rotates from mega-cap tech to value
US market breadth has been extremely narrow, with mega-cap tech driving indices while fewer stocks remain above 200-day averages. Higher rates make profitable fundamentals more important. Investors are rotating from overvalued tech giants into cheaper profitable cyclicals, value, small caps, and equal-weight S&P 500; the Nasdaq may fall even as many stocks rise.
Capital rotates from mega-cap tech to value
US market breadth has been extremely narrow, with mega-cap tech driving indices while fewer stocks remain above 200-day averages. Higher rates make profitable fundamentals more important. Investors are rotating from overvalued tech giants into cheaper profitable cyclicals, value, small caps, and equal-weight S&P 500; the Nasdaq may fall even as many stocks rise.
Beaten-down IT platforms offer rotation opportunity
Many high-quality IT and SaaS platform companies fell 40-70% without fundamental deterioration. With high rates, profitable growing cash flows are valuable, and large investors may rotate from overheated leaders into these discounted platforms. He found nine investment ideas in his IT-platform research.
Dell is a cheap AI-server growth play
Dell is a leading AI server supplier transforming from an old PC maker. AI server backlog reached $18B, about 68% of annual revenue; AI sales are forecast to grow 150% y/y, potentially lifting total revenue 20-25%. The chart forms a cup-and-handle with a breakout level near $175, flows are accelerating, and valuation is about 15x forward earnings versus 32% growth, a two-fold discount. He holds it and sees potential toward $200-250.
Nvidia is expensive with slowing growth
Nvidia is the main AI beneficiary but looks expensive at about 24x sales. Revenue growth remains strong but decelerates as the base grows, from 400% and 150% toward much lower rates. The chart may be in a fourth-wave sideways consolidation, so he does not buy now; holders can hold, but he sees limited near-term upside versus cheaper AI infrastructure names.
Arista is a top AI networking pick
Arista Networks is a leading high-speed networking supplier for cloud and AI data centers. BNP Paribas named it a top AI pick for 2026; AI and cloud loads require more switches, and it partners with Anthropic and others. Revenue growth is around 20% and flows are accelerating, but valuation is rich. After a 13% pullback it may be worth picking up, though sideways risk remains.
Datadog is discounted AI observability leader
Datadog is a leading cloud observability platform. Cross-selling is strong, with 84% of clients using two or more products and 54% using four or more. AI-native clients grew from 6% to 12% of revenue, and $1M-plus AI-native customers went from zero to 15. It is launching AI incident investigation and LLM observability. A 35-42% correction offers a chance to buy a leader at a discount, with chart target around $235 versus $130 and revenue growth near 26%.
Exxon breakout targets higher fifth wave
Exxon Mobil broke out of a long flat consolidation, which he bought around $101; it is now around $135. The multi-year consolidation suggests a larger fifth-wave advance, breaking historical highs could trigger acceleration, and buybacks and dividends support the stock. Technical target is around $184; he remains long.
Chevron can extend toward 200
Chevron is a classic energy major with a chart similar to Exxon and XLE. Wave projections suggest it could extend toward about $200 from around $167, helped by the energy-sector phase and shareholder returns; he presents it as an energy pick if stock-picking.
ConocoPhillips has similar bullish energy setup
ConocoPhillips is another Standard Oil descendant with a similar bullish energy chart. Its wave structure differs slightly but still points higher; energy sector strength and the commodity cycle support it, though he relies more on technicals than flows for these cyclicals.
Aluminum deficit supports higher prices
Aluminum faced its first deficit in years in 2025, and the deficit should intensify in 2026 due to smelter disruptions and limited energy. This should support aluminum prices.
Lithium shifts from glut to deficit
After oversupply in 2023-24, lithium is moving back toward deficit. Battery and storage demand is growing, and Morgan Stanley forecasts an 80,000-ton deficit in 2026. Prices have already doubled from lows and are expected to hold higher. It remains highly volatile, and he personally avoids cyclical commodity trades.
Freeport is a copper-deficit breakout play
Freeport-McMoRan is the largest US copper producer and a direct beneficiary of the expected 1M-ton copper deficit, the largest in 20 years. It is breaking historical highs, which often triggers acceleration; Elliott wave setup suggests a long fifth wave, and the commodity supercycle may run to the mid-2030s. It has expansion projects, acceptable debt, and dividends. He sees potential toward about $190.
Copper deficit can drive prices higher
Copper may face its tightest market in 22 years, with Bloomberg estimating a roughly 1M-ton deficit in 2026. Demand from EVs, grids, and data centers is rising while mines deplete and new projects stall. Prices may rise sharply, potentially to $14-18 in a strong deficit; he likes copper itself and copper miners.
Silver may consolidate after huge run
Silver has already had a huge move and the gold-silver ratio corrected from 1:100 back to about 1:50, so further upside may be more moderate. The fifth wave may still stretch, but after that consolidation is likely rather than a deep fall. He no longer sees it as the same super-opportunity from lower levels.
Oversold soft commodities may rebound
Soft commodities are deeply depressed. Cocoa is very oversold and may be forming a large triangle with potential for a violent rebound; wheat is also weak and could rebound if supply-demand balances shift. These are speculative oversold setups requiring caution.
Southern Copper is alternative copper play
Southern Copper is the second major copper pure-play after FCX. It is also trying to break out from consolidation and may be somewhat oversold, but he is less certain than on FCX; it is an alternative copper exposure.
Newmont benefits from higher metals prices
Newmont is a leading gold miner that also produces copper and silver. Gold remains a defensive asset expected to make new highs, silver has already repriced, and copper may rise; new contracts should be at higher prices. Its cash flows have exploded and he thinks the move is only beginning, though volatility is high.
Norilsk Nickel has bullish commodity triangle
Norilsk Nickel offers exposure to copper, palladium, and nickel. The chart is forming a triangle within a larger bullish structure and could eventually reach the 165-240/250 area if the commodity supercycle continues. He is not a specialist in the sector but sees a positive setup.
Albemarle offers volatile lithium recovery
Albemarle is the largest public lithium producer. Lithium is moving back to deficit, demand from batteries and storage is growing, and the company has cut costs and has long-term auto contracts. However, he personally exited and warns that a sharp 60% drawdown is possible; it is for investors who want lithium exposure.
Russell 2000 has too many unprofitable firms
He is not a supporter of investing in the Russell 2000 because about 40% of its constituents are unprofitable. For small-cap exposure he prefers higher-quality, profitable small-cap indices.
IJR is better quality small-cap exposure
Instead of Russell 2000, use IJR, the S&P 600 small-cap analog. It only includes profitable companies, has better quality, and historically outperforms Russell 2000 over the long term; it fits the small-cap rotation.
UnitedHealth is a discounted healthcare rebound
UnitedHealth is a core Great Rotation value pick. He bought around $247 near a technically valid bottom after a 42-60% drawdown. Revenue growth continues and is accelerating, buybacks are the largest in years at 2.9% of capitalization, and valuation is low at about 18x earnings and below 1x sales. He expects the fourth-wave bottom to lead toward $500, roughly 1x from entry.
Adobe is cheap with aggressive buybacks
Adobe is his best current Great Rotation case: 56% drawdown, stable 10-11% revenue growth, roughly 35% EPS growth, about 17x forward earnings, and a 9% buyback that has reduced float by about 20%. Free cash flow is strong and the company is aggressively repurchasing undervalued shares; the chart triangle could target about $450 from $300. He is heavily long with hedges and options.
Disney turnaround supports fifth-wave advance
Disney is a media giant with unique assets and a turnaround after management changes. Streaming is near breakeven, parks are profitable, operating leverage and EPS are recovering, free cash flow is rising, and valuation is about 16x. The chart may be forming a fifth wave with large potential upside, though he has not invested yet.
Intuit can reverse toward 680
Intuit is in the IT-platform rotation research. After a correction it may form a running flat or triangle; it could reverse toward $680-700 from $560. Fundamentals and flows are covered in his research; he includes it as a rotation candidate.
ServiceNow is a quality software rotation pick
ServiceNow is a leading large-cap software platform. The chart may be in a second wave or triangle, with potential upside; revenue and EPS growth are strong around 30%, buybacks are starting, and it is a sector leader, though valuation is high. It is a rotation candidate.
Duolingo setup offers fast multi-bagger potential
Duolingo is in his portfolio. It fell exactly 62% to a textbook second-wave retracement into a volume accumulation zone; flows are excellent with revenue up about 40% and valuation around 19x growth-adjusted. He bought near $149 and expects a fast 2-3x move.
Workday may rebound from low base
Workday is another beaten-down software rotation candidate. It is near lows and may be completing a triangle or fourth wave. Buybacks are appearing, revenue continues to grow, and valuation is high but the technical setup could produce a large move. He has not bought yet but may consider it.
Salesforce is buyable on strong flows
Salesforce flows are excellent and the chart likely completed a second wave within a diagonal. It is a leading software platform and he says it can be bought as part of the rotation into discounted IT platforms.
PayPal is deep value with buyback support
PayPal is a deep-value holding, down 81% from highs with about 11x earnings, a 10% buyback, and improving gross and profit margins despite slow revenue growth. He is fully hedged and may rebalance lower; new buyers might wait for a break above about $70, but he is content to hold long term.
Powell has bullish energy-equipment trend
Powell Industries is an energy equipment maker, mainly for oil and gas, with excellent flows. It has been a long-term winner and the current wave structure suggests the uptrend continues, though a sharp 50% second-wave correction is possible; he likes the trend and flows.
Vertiv is comparable strong equipment play
Vertiv is a comparable energy and data-center equipment company to Powell. Its chart may have a second-wave correction before continuing, but the flows are similarly strong and the larger uptrend remains intact.
DigitalOcean has strong flows and accumulation
DigitalOcean is a strong cloud and AI infrastructure platform. The stock may correct first toward its accumulation zone, but flows are excellent: revenue up about 15%, price-to-sales up 300%, and free cash flow has grown above EBITDA. He bought around $32 and says patience is needed for the next move.
Lyft holding remains a patience trade
Lyft is a holding bought around $14.70; it is now around $17.50. If it breaks below the cited line, the chart may need to be redrawn as a diagonal, but he is not panicking and expects the position to recover over time.
NLMK may break out on commodity cycle
He views the Russian market generally as setting up for growth. NLMK was requested and he sees it as a long candidate, with the chart starting to exit a triangle and potential to move toward the 21 area if the commodity supercycle supports steel and materials.
Novatek chart exits triangle higher
Novatek is part of the positive Russian commodity and energy setup. The chart is starting to exit a triangle and could run higher if the commodity cycle continues; he includes it among Russian names with upside.
Gazprom is multi-year accumulation with dividends
Gazprom is sitting on a multi-year hard accumulation level. He advises buying and holding for dividends; it should eventually break higher, and interested parties have incentive to make it happen.
Tinkoff may break toward 5000
Tinkoff may break the first wave and enter a transition move toward 5,000. It is part of the positive Russian market setup he sees, though he is not deeply immersed in Russian sentiment or fundamentals.
Sber has unclear but improving Russian setup
Sber's wave structure is less clear; it could extend a fourth wave or already be moving into a fifth alongside Tinkoff. Overall he is positive on the Russian market but cautious due limited expertise, so this is more of a developing setup than a high-conviction call.
Trade Desk support rebound targets 80
The Trade Desk is at support and may be forming a double-three WXY structure with a triangle. Flows have not fallen and are excellent. A rebound could target the moving average near $80 from about $36, offering around 1x upside; it also fits the rotation theme.
Up Next
This Dmitry Solodin video, published January 23, 2026, features Dmitry Solodin discussing BMRN, AIQ, SMH, XLE, DBC, GLD, UNG, RSP, Mega-Cap Tech, IGV, DELL, NVDA, ANET, DDOG, XOM, CVX, COP, Aluminum, LITHIUM, FCX, COPPER, SILVER, WEAT, COCOA, SCCO, NEM, GMKN.ME, ALB, IWM, IJR, UNH, ADBE, DIS, INTU, NOW, DUOL, WDAY, CRM, PYPL, POWL, VRT, DOCN, LYFT, NLMK.ME, NVTK.ME, GAZP.ME, TCS, SBER.ME, TTD. 47 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Dmitry Solodin · Tickers: BMRN, AIQ, SMH, XLE, DBC, GLD, UNG, RSP, Mega-Cap Tech, IGV, DELL, NVDA, ANET, DDOG, XOM, CVX, COP, Aluminum, LITHIUM, FCX, COPPER, SILVER, WEAT, COCOA, SCCO, NEM, GMKN.ME, ALB, IWM, IJR, UNH, ADBE, DIS, INTU, NOW, DUOL, WDAY, CRM, PYPL, POWL, VRT, DOCN, LYFT, NLMK.ME, NVTK.ME, GAZP.ME, TCS, SBER.ME, TTD