Ideas
US equities topping; expect sharp correction.
Chris sees the broad US equity market rolling over: NASDAQ is a leading indicator with red bars, the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 are breaking down, breadth is weak, and he advises not holding stocks. He expects a 15%-25% initial pullback, a possible 20%-30% decline in 2025, and even a 43%-50% washout/reset scenario; he would short equities or use inverse ETFs rather than hold through it.
US equities topping; expect sharp correction.
Chris sees the broad US equity market rolling over: NASDAQ is a leading indicator with red bars, the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 are breaking down, breadth is weak, and he advises not holding stocks. He expects a 15%-25% initial pullback, a possible 20%-30% decline in 2025, and even a 43%-50% washout/reset scenario; he would short equities or use inverse ETFs rather than hold through it.
Equal-weight S&P 500 breaking down.
The S&P 500 equal-weight index, which is less tech-heavy and reflects small/micro-cap breadth, has a bear-flag breakdown and shows the majority of stocks are weak; even a 60/40 portfolio has not made gains since the 2022 high. He sees this as evidence the market could collapse.
High-yield dividend stocks vulnerable to drop.
He says S&P 500 high-yield dividend stocks, often viewed as safe havens, have formed a tight bear flag and could see a huge drop. They are already falling more than the S&P 500, showing money is leaving supposedly defensive equities.
Real estate bubble may be breaking.
BlackRock and other large holders are reportedly selling real estate at losses to reduce exposure before the real estate bubble breaks; he treats this as a warning that real estate is fragile and big players are exiting.
Bitcoin monthly warning; avoid in crisis.
Bitcoin hit the same 100% measured move on its monthly chart as equities and gold, which he sees as a warning that the end of the cycle may be near. He also argues that in a severe crisis with internet, power, or EMP disruption, crypto loses utility while physical gold and silver retain bargaining power.
Bonds bottoming; wait for uptrend.
TLT and long-term Treasuries are in a bottoming phase after a long bear market. He expects economic weakening, eventual Fed cuts, and multiple upside legs in bonds, but he will not get involved until the trend turns up; he would choose long bonds over equities if forced to pick one, though the trade may be 4-8 months away.
Gold miners may lead bottom.
In a broader market washout, gold miners historically bottom and start performing three to four months before the stock market, as in 2008. He sees them as an early warning sign and a leading part of the precious metals complex.
Gold bullish near term, correction later.
Gold's trend is still up and he remains neutral to bullish for the next one to two months, seeing a 5%-12% Fibonacci stair-step move toward roughly 3,000-3,500; he would stay long and lock in gains. He expects a sharp pullback later in 2025, perhaps back near 2,000, which would be a last major buying opportunity before a multi-year rally that could target much higher levels.
Long US dollar Index breakout.
The US dollar is his preferred safe haven because it is lower volatility and can carry a larger allocation. The Dollar Index is breaking out of a multi-year base, tends to rise during crises, and he targets 116-120 or higher, which would pressure gold.
Oil breaking down to mid-50s.
Crude oil has been trending down and bouncing along support, with the recent rally looking like a short squeeze. He still expects oil to break below about $66 and fall into the mid-$50s as the economy stalls.
Energy stocks face waterfall selloff.
Energy equities have diverged upward while oil falls, with investors positioned for $200 oil. He says an impulse move has broken two support levels, many monthly pivot lows and stop orders are lined up, and a bounce should be sold; he expects a waterfall collapse and dividend cuts that force more selling, making an inverse ETF on energy attractive.
Energy stocks face waterfall selloff.
Energy equities have diverged upward while oil falls, with investors positioned for $200 oil. He says an impulse move has broken two support levels, many monthly pivot lows and stop orders are lined up, and a bounce should be sold; he expects a waterfall collapse and dividend cuts that force more selling, making an inverse ETF on energy attractive.
This The David Lin Report video, published January 10, 2025,
features Chris Vermeulen
discussing SPY, QQQ, IWM, Inverse ETF on stock market, RSP, SPYD, XLRE, BTC, TLT, GDX, GLD, DXY, WTI, XLE, Inverse ETF on energy.
13 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers:
Chris Vermeulen
· Tickers:
SPY,
QQQ,
IWM,
Inverse ETF on stock market,
RSP,
SPYD,
XLRE,
BTC,
TLT,
GDX,
GLD,
DXY,
WTI,
XLE,
Inverse ETF on energy
