Name: Is The Cycle Already Over?! w/ Avi Felman
Uploaded: 2025-01-10T17:43:12+00:00
Duration: 3645 s

Speakers

Avi Felman — Principal, GoldenTree Asset Management

Jordi Alexander — Founder & CEO, Selini Capital

Taiki Maeda — Founder, HFA Research

Summary

Steady Lads hosts and Avi Felman discuss whether the crypto cycle has topped after a heavy market selloff. Avi expects Bitcoin to bottom around $80k-$85k before new highs, sees a Solana unlock-driven setup resolving into a buy, and favors ETF launch speculation. The group debates the AI agent meta, with Avi bullish on the sector but cautious on specific tokens, Taiki favoring Fartcoin, and Jordi highlighting AI infrastructure plays. They also cover Ethereum weakness, Sui overvaluation, Bittensor's stalled thesis, and a tactical Celestia long.

Bitcoin selloff attributed to Saylor pause and macro rate fears; Avi sees $80k-$85k as the low before new highs.
Government BTC sale headline seen as unlikely before inauguration; if forced, it would be a buying opportunity.
Solana faces March unlock overhang and arbitrage forward selling, but Avi expects a good re-entry after unlocks.
Avi favors ETF launch speculation in Litecoin, Dogecoin, and Solana, and is negative on ETH and Sui.
AI agent/crypto meta discussed as large but competitive; Taiki favors Fartcoin as the only AI meme.
Jordi likes AI-agent infrastructure, including Frax and Worldcoin; Bittensor is seen as having failed to convert hype.
Avi is tactically long Celestia; pasta segment covers Celestia losses, USDC++ mispricing, and SHIB joke.

Ideas

Taiki Maeda Founder, HFA Research 7:09

Crypto cycle has not topped

Taiki assigns only 0-30% probability that the cycle has already topped. He sees little systemic leverage or fraud, thinks this may be a prolonged super cycle with compressed volatility both ways, and has a bullish 3-6 month horizon despite government Bitcoin sale and Solana unlock volatility.

Taiki Maeda Founder, HFA Research 7:33

AI crypto sector has not topped

The AI-and-crypto sector has been the most interesting area, and Taiki does not think the AI sector has topped either. He expects volatility from government Bitcoin sales and Solana unlocks but remains bullish over the next 3-6 months.

Avi Felman Principal, GoldenTree Asset Management 7:52

80-85k low before new highs

Sees 80-85k as the low before Bitcoin makes new all-time highs. The recent selloff was driven by Saylor pausing purchases and equity-market panic over inflation/rate-hike fears, but those fears are overblown because Trump will pressure the Fed, Saylor's bid should return, and Bitcoin has held up well without him.

Avi Felman Principal, GoldenTree Asset Management 11:38

Wait for Solana unlocks, then buy

Solana has underperformed because March unlock overhang and arbitrage buyers have been forward-selling to lock in profits. That pressure likely continues into mid-February/early March, but once the unlocks pass, selling should be exhausted and Solana can be a good re-entry given unchanged fundamentals, continued leadership, and a post-unlock ETF narrative.

Avi Felman Principal, GoldenTree Asset Management 13:26

Buy crypto ETF launch speculation

The trade around upcoming Litecoin, Dogecoin, and Solana ETFs is the speculation into launch, not the actual flows. The ETH ETF was a sale once live, but it still traded well into the speculation; Solana should also benefit after being suppressed by unlocks.

Avi Felman Principal, GoldenTree Asset Management 14:40

ETH is no longer compelling

ETH is no longer a compelling allocation: it has underperformed for so long, is no longer the tech leader, lacks outsized returns versus BTC, and institutions do not see a clear story. Staking in an ETH ETF could create a sellable narrative later, but that is not the current setup.

Avi Felman Principal, GoldenTree Asset Management 18:13

Sui overvalued despite institutional demand

Sui has better developer experience and is taking developers from Solana, with large allocators/family offices/hedge funds buying it as a Solana proxy. But Avi is not buying it here and thinks it is insanely overvalued, reminiscent of Cardano with institutions.

Avi Felman Principal, GoldenTree Asset Management 33:20

AI agent sector gets much bigger

The AI agent/crypto sector can get much bigger because AI hype is broader and more culturally pervasive than DeFi in 2020. But it is highly competitive and composition changes quickly, so traders need shorter holding periods rather than sit-and-forget allocations.

Jordi Alexander Founder & CEO, Selini Capital 39:20

AI-agent infrastructure is picks-and-shovels play

Jordi likes AI-agent infrastructure/picks-and-shovels. Frax is designing sovereignty, safety, and governance for agents; Worldcoin is building proof-of-personhood, ZK TLS, attestations, and trusted execution environments that will be necessary in an AI-heavy world.

Taiki Maeda Founder, HFA Research 41:48

Fartcoin is best AI pure play

In the AI agent meta, infrastructure and agent tokens are saturated and competitive, but there is only one AI meme. Taiki argues Fartcoin is therefore the best pure play on AI and says he bought it despite being down 50%.

Avi Felman Principal, GoldenTree Asset Management 50:04

Bittensor failed to convert AI hype

Bittensor has not converted its AI hype into actual platform usage, and the market now values the ability to launch AI agents. Avi says it has been tossed to the side and that being 'AI money' is difficult.

Avi Felman Principal, GoldenTree Asset Management 53:17

Tactically long Celestia, not investing

Avi says he is tactically long Celestia right now, not short. This is a short-term trade rather than an investment; he will take profit if it goes up.

Is The Cycle Already Over?! w/ Avi Felman

Summary

Ideas

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