Earnings Are Key: Q1 US Stock Investment Strategy Review | Choi Il-ho, Managing Director, Chesley Investment Advisory

Summary

Choi Il-ho, Managing Director at Chesley Investment Advisory, reviews Q1 US equity strategy ahead of earnings season. He argues that with rates and valuation multiples range-bound, earnings are the key driver for the S&P 500, and he highlights potential positive surprises from financials and TSMC. He also discusses defense spending and Palantir, Venezuela oil policy and energy equities, Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac housing policy, the labor market and Sahm rule, and the likely path for 10-year Treasury yields.

• Earnings season is the main focus for Q1 US equities.
• Rates and S&P 500 forward P/E are likely range-bound.
• Defense budget growth supports Palantir's R&D exposure.
• Venezuela oil policy raises questions about energy equity sustainability.
• Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac may lower mortgage rates via MBS purchases.
• Labor data show slow hiring and firing; the Sahm rule is not triggered.
• The 10-year Treasury yield is seen around 4% with limited room to fall.
• TSMC earnings could beat low expectations.