If This Rises, Does Korean Real Estate Rise? | Analyst Chae Sang-wook

이게 오르면, 한국 부동산이 오른다고요? | 채상욱 애널리스트 [신과대화]
Watch on YouTube ↗  |  January 17, 2026 at 23:00  |  46:03  |  3PRO TV (삼프로TV)
Speakers
Chae Sang-wook — Analyst, Connected Ground

Summary

Chae Sang-wook, an analyst at Connected Ground, discusses his PhD research on how Korean and US stock wealth affects Seoul apartment prices. He argues that since COVID, KOSPI gains have supported non-Gangnam Seoul apartments, while US stock wealth has led Gangnam/high-end apartment prices with about a two-month lag. For 2026, he expects semiconductor bonuses to make eastern Seoul the strongest housing market in H1, but sees high-end Seoul apartments vulnerable in H2 if holding-tax policy returns.

  • Post-COVID, domestic stock gains are positively linked to non-Gangnam Seoul apartment prices.
  • US stock wealth is positively linked to Gangnam and high-end Seoul apartment prices with a roughly two-month lag.
  • Lower/mid-tier Seoul apartments show less bubble pressure than high-end areas.
  • SK hynix and Samsung Electronics bonuses are expected to drive eastern Seoul housing demand in H1 2026.
  • High-end Seoul apartments face bubble and holding-tax downside risks in H2 2026.
  • The speaker views supply-side policy alone as ineffective and expects holding taxes to become more central.
  • Long-term demographic decline is cited as a negative consequence of elevated housing prices.
Ideas
Chae Sang-wook Analyst, Connected Ground 3:38
US stock wealth lifts Gangnam apartments.
Increases in Korean-held US stock balances and values lead Seoul Gangnam and high-end apartment prices with an optimal lag of about two months. US stock wealth is a major purchasing-power source for the high-end housing segment, so rising US stock wealth is a positive leading indicator for Gangnam/high-end apartments.
Gangnam/high-end Seoul apartments HIGH
Chae Sang-wook Analyst, Connected Ground 11:03
KOSPI gains lift non-Gangnam Seoul apartments.
Post-COVID, Korean stock gains no longer divert money away from housing; instead, gains in KOSPI and realized stock wealth create effective cash flow and purchasing power that lifts demand for non-Gangnam and lower/mid-tier Seoul apartments. The speaker notes these lower-tier areas show little bubble pressure, so this wealth channel is a positive driver.
Non-Gangnam Seoul apartments HIGH
Chae Sang-wook Analyst, Connected Ground 40:10
Chip bonuses lift eastern Seoul housing.
SK hynix and Samsung Electronics bonuses are expected to create household cash flow exceeding bank lending, and because employees must commute, the eastern Seoul corridor including Gangdong, Gwangjin, Songpa, Pangyo, and Dongtan should be the strongest housing market in H1 2026.
Eastern Seoul/capital region apartment market (Gangdong, Gwangjin, Songpa, Pangyo, Dongtan) HIGH
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This 3PRO TV (삼프로TV) video, published January 17, 2026, features Chae Sang-wook discussing Gangnam/high-end Seoul apartments, Non-Gangnam Seoul apartments, Eastern Seoul/capital region apartment market (Gangdong, Gwangjin, Songpa, Pangyo, Dongtan). 3 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Chae Sang-wook  · Tickers: Gangnam/high-end Seoul apartments, Non-Gangnam Seoul apartments, Eastern Seoul/capital region apartment market (Gangdong, Gwangjin, Songpa, Pangyo, Dongtan)