Markets Weekly January 17, 2026

Summary

Joseph Wang reviews a Fed-heavy week, focusing on the race for the next Fed chair after Kevin Hassett was effectively ruled out and Kevin Warsh emerged as the likely frontrunner. He argues markets are losing momentum and may consolidate or correct, while noting that the Treasury curve sold off when Fed-chair odds shifted less dovish. He also discusses the twilight of central-bank independence, fiscal dominance, and the political economy of monetary policy.

• Markets are losing momentum as the seasonally positive period fades.
• Kevin Hassett was ruled out, boosting Kevin Warsh's odds to be Fed chair.
• Treasury yields rose across the curve, including the long end, on the less-dovish Fed-chair shift.
• Equities and debasement trades such as gold and silver sold off on the news.
• Wang argues rates largely follow the expected path of Fed policy.
• He sees central-bank independence fading globally and views it as a durable regime shift.
• He says value investing has been an unsuccessful mental model in recent decades.
• Geopolitical risks include Middle East tensions and potential tariffs over Greenland.