ETH Bounces Back, What Next?

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  May 14, 2025 at 16:06  |  10:27  |  1000x Podcast
Speakers
Avi Felman — Principal, GoldenTree Asset Management
Jonah Van Bourg — Head of Trading, Cumberland / ex-Vitol

Summary

The hosts discuss a sharp, largely unexpected crypto rally and short squeeze, with ETH/BTC up about 32% from Avi's prior target zone. Avi says he was wrong on consolidation, expects the squeeze to exhaust after another possible leg, and wants to short ETH/BTC once momentum fades. Jonah remains an ETH skeptic, calls ETH a poor business and a good short after stabilization, and expects other L1s to dominate. They also debate bridge/UX issues and caution around trading against ongoing crypto short squeezes.

  • Crypto rallied sharply, led by ETH/BTC, surprising both hosts.
  • Avi had expected a 20-25% ETH/BTC rip before a short; the move exceeded that at about 32%.
  • Avi wants to wait for sideways action or two-to-three red ETH candles before shorting ETH/BTC.
  • Jonah calls ETH a poor business and good short, but warns against shorting into the current rally before stabilization.
  • Jonah argues institutional/BlackRock and Base adoption do not accrete value to ETH holders.
  • Jonah expects non-ETH chains to continue dominating the L1 space.
  • Both discuss short-squeeze mechanics, positioning, and bad UX/bridging for ETH L2s.
Ideas
Avi Felman Principal, GoldenTree Asset Management 0:43
Short ETH/BTC after squeeze exhausts.
The ETH/BTC move is a short-squeeze rally that should exhaust once forced covering and momentum buying fade. Wait for sideways price action or two-to-three red ETH candles, then short ETH/BTC because fundamentals have not changed and usage is moving to other chains rather than ETH.
ETH/BTC HIGH
Jonah Van Bourg Head of Trading, Cumberland / ex-Vitol 1:50
Short ETH and ETH/BTC after stabilization.
Jonah remains bearish on ETH and ETH/BTC: he calls ETH a flaming pile of crap and a good short, argues it is a poor business with broken bridging/L2 architecture, says institutional/TradFi/BlackRock and Base activity do not accrete value to ETH holders, and expects other chains to dominate. He would wait for price discovery to stabilize rather than short into the current rally, then get short again.
ETH/BTC ETH HIGH
Jonah Van Bourg Head of Trading, Cumberland / ex-Vitol 4:04
Long non-ETH L1s as ETH fades.
Jonah thinks ETH is radioactive and that other chains will continue to proliferate and dominate the L1 space, with activity and innovation moving away from Ethereum mainnet. This supports a positive relative stance on non-ETH L1s versus Ethereum.
Non-ETH Layer 1 blockchains MED
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This 1000x Podcast video, published May 14, 2025, features Avi Felman, Jonah Van Bourg discussing ETH/BTC, ETH, Non-ETH Layer 1 blockchains. 3 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Avi Felman, Jonah Van Bourg  · Tickers: ETH/BTC, ETH, Non-ETH Layer 1 blockchains