¿Por qué sube el petróleo y AMENAZA a EE.UU y Europa?
Speakers
Pablo Gil
— Head of Research, 21Shares
Summary
Pablo Gil analyzes why oil is rising and threatening the US and Europe. He argues the near-term risk is the Strait of Hormuz, while Venezuela, strategic reserves and US shale offer limited cushion. He highlights low US refined-product inventories and a technical breakout in European TTF gas. The energy pressure could keep inflation sticky, complicate central banks and influence November US elections.
- Venezuela deal is strategic but cannot solve near-term oil supply.
- Hormuz transit remains disrupted and is the main oil risk premium.
- US strategic reserves and shale growth no longer provide a large buffer.
- US gasoline and diesel inventories are below five-year averages.
- European gas storage is low and TTF has broken out to the upside.
- Higher energy prices could complicate Fed and ECB policy.
- Gasoline prices may become a key variable in November US elections.
Ideas
Hormuz keeps crude risk premium elevated.
The oil market's shock-absorption cushion is weakening. Venezuelan reserves are not immediately available production; the US strategic petroleum reserve is at its lowest since 1982 and only buys time; and Permian shale production growth has collapsed to negative, so the US can no longer quickly flood the market with incremental barrels. That structural loss of supply elasticity supports higher or stickier crude prices.
Refined products may outrun crude prices.
US commercial crude, gasoline and distillate inventories are all below their five-year averages; diesel/distillates are 10% below. The world consumes refined products, not crude, and refined product prices can diverge from crude and be the better expression of energy damage. Sustained diesel increases feed through transport and goods prices.
TTF gas breakout targets 60 EUR/MWh.
EU gas storage at 60.8% in mid-August is the lowest for that date in five years, below the 90% target for 1 November, and global LNG competition will force Europe to pay up. TTF has broken above its multi-year consolidation range; projecting the range width points to roughly 60 EUR/MWh, nearly double the pre-breakout level.
