Carry Trade Unwind Sparks Biggest Yen Rally in Months | Insight with Haslinda Amin 9/4/2026

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  September 04, 2026 at 06:14  |  47:29  |  Bloomberg Markets
Speakers
Mark Cranfield — Cross Asset Strategist, Bloomberg
Polka Mishra — Partner, Javelin Wealth Management
Neelkanth Mishra — World Bank Executive Director
Sam Altman — CEO, OpenAI
Mallika Doshi — Senior Editor, Bloomberg
Shetty — India Equities Options Reporter, Bloomberg

Summary

The episode covers the yen surge from carry-trade unwinding, Fed and BOJ policy expectations, bond-market positioning, AI investment themes, India growth data and RBI policy, plus India options volatility and space-sector news. Mark Cranfield sees BOJ policy fueling yen strength, while Javelin Wealth's Polka Mishra is more cautious on the yen and favors AI infrastructure, select equity markets, EM bonds and short-duration developed bonds. World Bank Executive Director Neelkanth Mishra defends India's growth data and sees Indian yields likely heading lower.

  • Asian equities rise as traders pare Fed hike expectations after Fed Governor Waller's comments.
  • The yen rallies on carry-trade unwinding and increased BOJ rate-hike bets.
  • Mark Cranfield says the upcoming BOJ meeting is highly consequential with a high hike probability.
  • Polka Mishra expects a 25bp BOJ hike but remains cautious on sustained yen strength.
  • Polka Mishra favors EM bonds, short-duration developed bonds, and AI infrastructure as high-conviction positioning.
  • Polka Mishra likes US, Japan and Korea equities and expects further dollar weakening.
  • Neelkanth Mishra argues India's GDP data is credible and Indian yields may head lower on fiscal consolidation.
  • India option settlement volatility and a successful space launch are also discussed.
Ideas
Mark Cranfield Cross Asset Strategist, Bloomberg 4:21
BOJ hike supports yen rally.
The upcoming Bank of Japan meeting is lining up to be highly consequential; the market sees a high probability of a rate hike and guidance on follow-up hikes, and outside U.S. pressure is adding fuel to yen strength. He notes few traders will want to go against the yen rally in the next two weeks.
JPY MED
Polka Mishra Partner, Javelin Wealth Management 10:50
Prefer EM bonds and short duration.
Emerging market bonds have been less volatile and stable, notably China, India and Thailand; in developed markets she would stay shorter duration to lock in yields, but would avoid the long end because investors are demanding a duration premium.
Emerging market bonds China bonds India bonds Thailand bonds Short-duration developed market bonds HIGH
Polka Mishra Partner, Javelin Wealth Management 10:50
Prefer EM bonds and short duration.
Emerging market bonds have been less volatile and stable, notably China, India and Thailand; in developed markets she would stay shorter duration to lock in yields, but would avoid the long end because investors are demanding a duration premium.
Long-end developed market bonds HIGH
Polka Mishra Partner, Javelin Wealth Management 16:53
AI infrastructure picks and shovels favored.
Her high-conviction AI call is the picks-and-shovels part of the value chain: data centers, memory and infrastructure. Memory has strong pricing power, data centers still need heavy investment, and infrastructure utilities are lagging and offer value.
AIQ HIGH
Polka Mishra Partner, Javelin Wealth Management 17:35
Application layer starting to work.
The AI application layer is becoming investable as model pricing becomes more reasonable, partly due to China; Snowflake's numbers are an early indication this is starting to happen, though it is early days.
AI Application Software SNOW MED
Polka Mishra Partner, Javelin Wealth Management 20:28
Korea/Taiwan chip plays attractive.
Korea is liked despite its run-up because the rally has been concentrated in two stocks; there is a broader corporate reform story, dividend payout is still half that of Australia and Singapore, and the market at around 12x earnings is attractive.
EWY MED
Polka Mishra Partner, Javelin Wealth Management 20:28
Korea/Taiwan chip plays attractive.
Within Asian AI supply-chain plays, Korea and Taiwan stand out for chip-related pricing power; the opportunity remains narrow, roughly a three-stock story, but is still attractive.
EWT MED
Polka Mishra Partner, Javelin Wealth Management 21:23
US equities positive on resilience.
She remains positive on the US overall because of economic resilience and because the US has been a beneficiary of the Iran war.
SPY MED
Polka Mishra Partner, Javelin Wealth Management 21:35
Japan equities positive on reforms.
Japan is attractive due to the continuing corporate reform story, evidence of more share buybacks and an economy that is reviving; yen weakness is a concern but can be hedged.
EWJ HIGH
Polka Mishra Partner, Javelin Wealth Management 22:23
Expect steady dollar weakening.
She expects continued steady dollar weakening; more central banks are looking at raising rates, the dollar has been very strong, and a softer dollar would be good for the US, the rest of the world, and emerging-market exposure.
DXY MED
Neelkanth Mishra World Bank Executive Director 26:22
India growth is credible and sustainable.
India's 7.8% GDP growth is credible and supported by high-frequency indicators such as auto sales, cement volumes, corporate earnings and corporate capex; 7.5% growth is doable if system credit growth stays around 15–16%.
India Equities MED
Neelkanth Mishra World Bank Executive Director 34:35
Indian yields can head lower.
India's 10-year yield at around 6.8% is perhaps headed lower because the government is doing fiscal consolidation; the RBI does not need to hike to protect the currency or follow the Fed given large deposit inflows and economic slack.
SGB MED
Up Next
1:32:08
China Stocks Join Asia Rally As Fed Hike Bets Ease | The China Show | 9/4/2026
Bloomberg Markets · Sep 04
25:55
[#UrgentMarketUpdate] Samsung Electronics' 'Special Boon' Exploded... When Will the Stock Price Reflect It? / NAND, Memory Shortage Continues Until Next Year | Park Geun-hyung, Department Head
815 Money Talk (815머니톡) · Sep 04
1:33:59
Traders Bet On Fed Hold, BOJ Hike; Toyota Vice Chairman Exclusive | The Asia Trade 9/4/2026
Bloomberg Markets · Sep 04
1:27
Anthropic Finalizing $15 Billion Pre-IPO Credit Facility
Bloomberg Markets · Sep 04
28:55
Financial Services Commission 'Promoting Tokenization of Stocks, Bonds, Funds from February Next Year' | Kim Dong-hwan, Seo Dong-ju, Choi Yun-young [Crypto PLUS]
3PRO TV (삼프로TV) · Sep 04

This Bloomberg Markets video, published September 04, 2026, features Mark Cranfield, Polka Mishra, Neelkanth Mishra discussing JPY, Emerging market bonds, China bonds, India bonds, Thailand bonds, Short-duration developed market bonds, Long-end developed market bonds, AIQ, AI Application Software, SNOW, EWY, EWT, SPY, EWJ, DXY, India Equities, SGB. 12 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Mark Cranfield, Polka Mishra, Neelkanth Mishra  · Tickers: JPY, Emerging market bonds, China bonds, India bonds, Thailand bonds, Short-duration developed market bonds, Long-end developed market bonds, AIQ, AI Application Software, SNOW, EWY, EWT, SPY, EWJ, DXY, India Equities, SGB