Traders Bet On Fed Hold, BOJ Hike; Toyota Vice Chairman Exclusive | The Asia Trade 9/4/2026

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  September 04, 2026 at 05:55  |  1:33:59  |  Bloomberg Markets
Speakers
Anna Wong — Bloomberg Chief US Economist
Sunny Benji — Equity Strategist, Bloomberg
Anthony Stevens — Bloomberg Market Producer
Yujiro Goto — Head of FX Strategy for Japan, Nomura
Koji Sato — Vice Chairman, Toyota; Chair, Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association
Suresh Tantia — Head of CIO for Asia Equity Strategy, UBS Global Wealth Management
Sam Altman — CEO, OpenAI
Thomas Wolf — Co-Founder and Chief Science Officer, Hugging Face
Paul Allen — Reporter, Bloomberg
Patrick Wong — Head of Bloomberg Intelligence Hong Kong
Deborah Elms — Head of Trade Policy, Hinrich Foundation
Ruth Carson — Correspondent, Singapore

Summary

The episode covers Asian market setup after dovish Fed comments trimmed September hike odds and boosted the yen on BOJ hike bets. Interviews include OpenAI's Sam Altman on GPT-6 Astra, Hugging Face on the Nvidia deal, and Toyota Vice Chairman Koji Sato on competitiveness and hydrogen. UBS Global Wealth Management outlines bullish US and Taiwan/India equities, China A-shares, gold, and short-duration Treasuries while cautious on Korea, with trade and Australian property risks also in focus.

  • Fed Governor Waller leans toward a hold if inflation improves, cutting market odds of a September hike.
  • The yen posts its biggest gain in over a month as BOJ hike expectations rise and the dollar weakens.
  • OpenAI releases GPT-6 Astra while Nvidia completes its $3 billion Hugging Face acquisition.
  • Toyota Vice Chairman Koji Sato stresses regional competitiveness, key choke points, and Japan's hydrogen ecosystem.
  • UBS's Suresh Tantia favors US equities, Taiwan, India, China A-shares, gold, and 2-5 year Treasuries while cautious on Korea.
  • Australian homebuilder distress highlights private credit concentration and housing supply risks.
  • Trade focus includes the Xi-Trump meeting, semiconductor tariffs, and automaker pressure for a permanent Chinese car ban.
Ideas
Anna Wong Bloomberg Chief US Economist 4:58
Diversify into gold and hard commodities.
She sees global debt sustainability as a structural problem weighing on the dollar and fixed income, with central bank gold buying still very high; long-term investors will look to diversify away from Western fixed income into hard currencies and hard commodities such as gold.
Sunny Benji Equity Strategist, Bloomberg 9:01
Asia and semiconductors set up positively.
The Asia setup looks positive because of US dollar weakness, broad Asian currency strength, reduced Fed hawkishness after Waller, and investor desire to refocus on equity stories; the semiconductor trade could get back on track after the momentum unwind cleared positioning.
Anthony Stevens Bloomberg Market Producer 18:13
AI price collapse benefits software names.
The collapse in AI token prices triggered by Chinese models and followed by OpenAI and Anthropic is starting to benefit end-user software companies; the MSCI US software index has almost retraced its January-February disruption plunge, a large short position is being covered, and Snowflake rose 16% after showing it can consolidate AI use profitably.
Yujiro Goto Head of FX Strategy for Japan, Nomura 25:47
Yen strengthening toward 154-155.
He expects the BOJ to deliver a quarter-point hike in September and possibly back-to-back hikes later if yen weakness resumes; with the BOJ willing to act and the Fed not rushing to hike, dollar-yen should move lower toward around 154 and may reach 155, supporting the yen.
Yujiro Goto Head of FX Strategy for Japan, Nomura 29:16
Japanese investors may support JGBs.
Japanese bond investors are becoming more comfortable that the BOJ is no longer behind the curve, reducing tail risk; there is a chance of repatriation by Japanese investors supporting JGBs, and recent auction and fiscal signals are constructive for the long end.
Koji Sato Vice Chairman, Toyota; Chair, Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association 39:44
Japanese automakers have competitive strengths.
Japanese automakers can remain competitive by leveraging high technical capability, implementation capability, and high-quality manufacturing to control key choke points and execute region-specific strategies rather than chasing volume; the US is increasingly favoring Japanese hybrids and India and China still offer large opportunities.
Koji Sato Vice Chairman, Toyota; Chair, Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association 42:55
Japan can lead hydrogen ecosystem.
Hydrogen holds immense potential and Japan possesses the full ecosystem technology including fuel cell stacks, transportation, and water electrolysis that can be packaged into a solution-provider role, making hydrogen a usable energy source across countries and into e-fuels.
Suresh Tantia Head of CIO for Asia Equity Strategy, UBS Global Wealth Management 52:19
US equities can rise on earnings.
Equity markets follow earnings, and with S&P 500 earnings projected to grow 25% this year and 14% next year, higher yields can be tolerated and the US equity market can still move higher even if the Fed hikes.
Suresh Tantia Head of CIO for Asia Equity Strategy, UBS Global Wealth Management 52:50
Taiwan quality and earnings growth.
Taiwan is a favorite market because it is a quality market with 35%-plus earnings growth this year and next, and companies have near-monopoly positions in foundry and semiconductor equipment, so earnings would not be hit by a slowdown in hyperscaler AI spending.
Suresh Tantia Head of CIO for Asia Equity Strategy, UBS Global Wealth Management 53:17
India equities bottom with growth.
India has bottomed and, despite possible short-term consolidation from higher oil prices, double-digit earnings growth this year and next plus cheaper valuations mean Indian equities should eventually move higher.
Suresh Tantia Head of CIO for Asia Equity Strategy, UBS Global Wealth Management 53:53
South Korea DRAM cycle peak near.
South Korea is less preferred because the market is volatile and heavily focused on DRAM; DRAM prices have already risen five to six times in nine months and the cycle peak looks close, limiting earnings revision and market upside.
Suresh Tantia Head of CIO for Asia Equity Strategy, UBS Global Wealth Management 54:56
China A-shares leverage domestic AI.
China A-shares are positive because China is building its own AI ecosystem, which creates demand for domestic hardware and equipment; A-share earnings revisions have been strong despite a weak economy, giving better value.
Suresh Tantia Head of CIO for Asia Equity Strategy, UBS Global Wealth Management 55:40
Lock in 2-5 year Treasury yields.
Investors should lock in 2-5 year US Treasury yields because the market is pricing more than 50 basis points of hikes over the next 12 months; if the base case of no rate hike occurs, short-dated yields should fall.
Suresh Tantia Head of CIO for Asia Equity Strategy, UBS Global Wealth Management 57:55
Prefer industrials, materials, financials.
Rather than relying on energy stocks, investors should use cyclical sectors such as industrials, materials, and financials as the better equity-market way to participate in economic strength.
Up Next

This Bloomberg Markets video, published September 04, 2026, features Anna Wong, Sunny Benji, Anthony Stevens, Yujiro Goto, Koji Sato, Suresh Tantia discussing DBC, GLD, AAXJ, SMH, SNOW, IGV, FXY, JGBS, TM, Japanese automakers, XLE, Japanese hydrogen ecosystem, SPY, EWT, India Equities, EWY, ASHR, 2-5 year US Treasuries, XLI, XLB, XLF. 14 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Anna Wong, Sunny Benji, Anthony Stevens, Yujiro Goto, Koji Sato, Suresh Tantia  · Tickers: DBC, GLD, AAXJ, SMH, SNOW, IGV, FXY, JGBS, TM, Japanese automakers, XLE, Japanese hydrogen ecosystem, SPY, EWT, India Equities, EWY, ASHR, 2-5 year US Treasuries, XLI, XLB, XLF