Ideas
JGBs attractive on responsible fiscal policy
Responsible fiscal policy from Takaichi would be positive for Japanese fixed income; if she avoids unfunded spending, Japanese investors should increase JGB buying, especially in long and 10-year maturities.
Yen strengthens if fiscal policy stays responsible
If Prime Minister Takaichi maintains a responsible fiscal policy, the yen should strengthen toward the middle of the year; upside in USD/JPY should be capped, with 160 a key intervention level, and BOJ hikes should also support the yen.
Japanese defense spending rise supports sector
Japan's national defense spending is likely to rise as the country seeks to become more independent and insulated from the US and China; the LDP supermajority supports this direction.
Policy-targeted Japanese sectors attractive
Takaichi has established a council targeting about 17 areas of the economy, including shipbuilding, space, and robotics; those policy-supported sectors are attractive for equities.
Japanese stocks rise on structural reform
Even if a sharply stronger yen could hurt stocks, resilient Japanese corporate earnings and structural shifts such as corporate governance reform should support Japanese equities going higher.
Overweight UK equities on cheap valuations
Overweight UK equities: the Bank of England is cutting rates, UK valuations are roughly in line with historical norms, and the UK market has some insulation from political instability.
Overweight UK gilts as yields attractive
Overweight UK gilts and investment-grade credit: the BoE may cut three times to 3%, gilt yields are generous versus other developed markets and the US, and gilts have performed relatively well, though removal of Rachel Reeves could cause volatility.
Sterling can appreciate against dollar
Sterling can appreciate modestly against the dollar over the year, though he says that may say as much about dollar weakness as about UK strength.
UK banks benefit from curve steepening
The UK market benefits from a steepening yield curve as the BoE cuts rates while long yields rise, and the UK bank sector in particular benefits from that steepening.
Yen is strongest major currency this year
The yen should be the strongest major currency this year: the BOJ is one of few central banks tightening, JGB yields are normalizing, and the yen is very cheap on a real trade-weighted basis.
Long-end JGBs attractive in cheap yen
The longer end of the JGB curve is attractive because Japanese yields have moved toward normalization and offer competitive yields in a very cheap currency.
Short Treasuries as foreign demand wanes
China's warning to banks about concentrated Treasury exposure is another notch in the story that the world owns too many Treasuries and the US is heavily indebted; this should keep US yields drifting higher.
Yen weakness trend sustainable on crosses
The long-term bearish trend in the yen can remain sustainable, especially on crosses rather than against the dollar, because intervention risk makes USD/JPY tactically difficult.
Japanese stocks supported by Takaichi supermajority
Takaichi's supermajority allows her to push through policies, and the resulting pro-growth Japanese economy should continue to be good for Japanese stocks.
JGB yields have further to rise
JGB yields have further to rise given the supermajority and pro-growth policy backdrop.
Bullish global stocks on US economy
He is bullish on the US economy and global companies this year, which supports a constructive view on global stocks despite near-term data risk.
InPost takeover premium drives shares higher
InPost is being acquired by Advent and a FedEx-led consortium at a €7.8bn valuation, and the confirmed deal could drive shares toward the offer price after initially jumping on deal talk.
Novo relief as copycat withdrawn
Novo Nordisk should get a relief lift after Hims & Hers withdrew a cheaper copycat Wegovy pill, easing competition for Novo's obesity pill, though Eli Lilly remains a competitor.
Equal weight outperformance on market broadening
The S&P 500 equal-weight index had its best relative performance since late 2020 as money stayed in the market but broadened out; investors should diversify and balance portfolios away from concentrated market-cap exposure.
AI data centers need energy infrastructure
There is not enough energy or energy infrastructure to supply AI data centers; she leans into energy infrastructure and grid expansion, including premium cable needed for that buildout.
Europe benefits from global fund flows
Europe is doing okay because fund flows are starting to shift from the US into Europe, and Europe shows outperformance underneath the surface even if headline indices look dull.
Software valuations create active opportunities
The entire software sector has been de-rated to around 17-18 times earnings, creating active opportunities for investors who can identify where AI disruption will first hit margins.
European semis benefit from AI capex
European semiconductors are doing well because Mag 7 capital spending commitments are real and support the picks-and-shovels AI infrastructure trade.
Defense remains interesting on spending
Defense remains very interesting given the persistent spending backdrop.
Banks offer capital-return certainty
Banks offer certainty through large capital returns and potential M&A, balancing the uncertainty in AI-exposed areas; she says investors should not ignore banks.
Greggs hurt by weight-loss drugs
Greggs was cut to hold by Jefferies on risks that weight-loss drugs reduce demand for its food, and the obesity-drug threat remains a drag on sausage roll sales.
UniCredit returns cash and beats estimates
UniCredit's Q4 was messy, but the €50bn shareholder return plan through 2030 and Andrea Orcel's focus on capital returns should keep shareholders happy and set up future outperformance.
NatWest overpaying for Evelyn Partners
NatWest's agreement to buy Evelyn Partners for £2.7bn is a competitively priced M&A deal in UK wealth management and explains the negative share reaction.
Brent falls on massive oil glut
Oil is massively oversupplied with the biggest surplus balances since before Covid; geopolitical risk premium is $6-8/bbl, but once Iran/US tensions become clearer and the market can look through the risk, Brent should fall to the low $50s, with a possible touch below $50 for a couple of quarters.
Refining demand improves with global economy
The global and US economy should improve this year, supporting more driving, goods movement, and eventually jet demand, which is positive for petroleum refining; elevated prices from geopolitics would also encourage more drilling and refining.
Software rebound after capitulation and outflows
Software positioning has fallen from 18% to a record-low 3%, outflows have largely capitulated, and S&P 500 software earnings are forecast to rise, so the sector can rebound.
Rotate from US into international equities
The rotation trade is ongoing: money is moving out of US equities into international equities, Europe, Asia, emerging markets, and US small caps, with record tech ETF outflows and equal-weight outperformance confirming it.
Pound downside on underpriced political risk
The pound's post-budget risk premium has disappeared even though UK political risk is not going away, with by-elections and local elections ahead; investors should price a bigger political risk premium, implying pound downside.
Avoid UK equities on political uncertainty
Even though a weaker pound mechanically helps the FTSE 100 and UK stocks are cheap, investors do not want to buy UK equities because every UK government problem makes them stay away; he is staying away.
This Bloomberg Markets video, published February 09, 2026,
features Yusuke Miyairi, Paul Jackson, Mark Cudmore, Chloe Kelly, Helen Jewell, Tom Metcalf, Vikas Dwivedi, Michael Scott
discussing Japanese government bonds, USD/JPY, Japanese defense, Japanese shipbuilding, Japanese space, Japanese robotics, EWJ, EWU, UKGILT, UK investment grade credit, GBP/USD, UK Banks, FXY, TLT, VT, INPST.AS, NVO, RSP, PAVE, GRID, Premium cable, VGK, IGV, SMH, ITA, KBE, GRG.L, UNCRY, NATWEST, BNO, CRAK, ACWX, AAXJ, EEM, US Small Caps, EUR/GBP.
34 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers:
Yusuke Miyairi,
Paul Jackson,
Mark Cudmore,
Chloe Kelly,
Helen Jewell,
Tom Metcalf,
Vikas Dwivedi,
Michael Scott
· Tickers:
Japanese government bonds,
USD/JPY,
Japanese defense,
Japanese shipbuilding,
Japanese space,
Japanese robotics,
EWJ,
EWU,
UKGILT,
UK investment grade credit,
GBP/USD,
UK Banks,
FXY,
TLT,
VT,
INPST.AS,
NVO,
RSP,
PAVE,
GRID,
Premium cable,
VGK,
IGV,
SMH,
ITA,
KBE,
GRG.L,
UNCRY,
NATWEST,
BNO,
CRAK,
ACWX,
AAXJ,
EEM,
US Small Caps,
EUR/GBP
