'Beginning Of The End' Of Bull Run: Here's What's Next For Stocks, Bitcoin | Gareth Soloway

Summary

Gareth Soloway discusses June CPI, sticky inflation, limited Fed cuts, and his view that markets are in a late-cycle 'beginning of the end' phase. He is short the S&P/Nasdaq and Bitcoin/IBIT on technical breakdowns while expecting a 5-10% equity correction and Bitcoin risk-off into the high $80Ks. Longer term he remains bullish Bitcoin and gold, prefers gold over silver near term, waits to buy miners, and sees a short-term DXY bounce to 100.

• CPI headline rose 2.7% y/y and core 2.9%, with tariffs and deportations seen as inflationary but not fully reflected yet.
• Gareth expects inflation to stay near 3%, limiting the Fed to at most one mercy cut this year.
• He sees the S&P and Nasdaq at major technical resistance; a break below S&P ~6,265 could trigger a 5-10% correction.
• Bitcoin's daily topping tail and failure to hold above ~116,000 on weekly closes sets up a bearish near-term trade, with support at 108k-109k and 86k-87k.
• Altcoin and meme-coin strength is framed as late-cycle risk-on, while VIX uptick suggests institutions buying protection.
• Gold is a longer-term buy on pullbacks toward $3,500/$3,000, with $4,000 more likely than sub-$3,000 by year-end; silver may consolidate near term.
• He waits to accumulate gold miners near $48-$47 and sees DXY short-term upside to 100, while a developing inflation impulse could eventually favor shorting the dollar.
• The 10-year yield near 4.5% and curve steepening are flagged as risks for stocks and borrowing costs.