Supply for memory is going to be even tighter in 2027, says Cantor Fitzgerald's CJ Muse
Speakers
CJ Muse
— Senior Managing Director for Semiconductor Equity Research at Cantor Fitzgerald
Summary
CJ Muse expects memory supply to tighten further in 2027, driving significant upside for Micron if bullish $200 EPS materializes. He sees positive momentum for Intel as business shifts to the US national champion, and for Marvell on custom ASIC strength at Amazon and Microsoft, while Qualcomm's data center push is early and suspect. On custom silicon, he argues TSMC's wafer allocation prioritizes NVIDIA, AMD, and Broadcom, making them the key winners.
- Micron likely to see supply tightness into 2027-2028, with potential $200 EPS and low P/E.
- Intel benefits from TSMC being sold out and the national champion thesis.
- Marvell's custom ASIC business with Amazon and Microsoft and optics strength drive higher earnings power.
- Qualcomm's data center entry is too early and faces a crowded market.
- Broadcom-OpenAI custom chip announcement is part of a broader trend of custom silicon.
- TSMC wafer allocation favors NVIDIA, AMD, and Broadcom, positioning them as winners.
- CJ Muse remains bullish on compute demand extending well beyond 2028.
Ideas
Tight memory supply drives Micron upside.
Memory supply will be even tighter in 2027 than 2026, enabling earnings growth through 2028; bulls see $200 EPS next calendar year, implying the stock trades at 5x earnings, which is too low for a peak multiple for Micron. Further upside remains as long as compute demand extends to 2029-2030 and beyond.
Business shifting to Intel as national champion.
With TSMC fully sold out, business has flowed to Intel. Having a national champion in manufacturing makes a lot of sense, supporting the case for Intel.
Amazon/Microsoft custom ASIC drives Marvell earnings.
Marvell's business at Amazon and upcoming business at Microsoft, combined with its tremendous strength in optics, is driving much higher earnings power, potentially reaching $10 EPS into 2028, which has driven the stock's uplift.
Qualcomm data center entry early and suspect.
Qualcomm's entry into the data center market is suspect; creating a new business in a crowded market isn't easy and requires a 5-10 year roadmap, making it very early in the lifecycle.
TSMC allocation favors NVIDIA, AMD, Broadcom.
TSMC wafer allocation is the key for custom silicon; their work suggests TSMC is prioritizing NVIDIA, AMD, and Broadcom, making these three the winners in custom silicon compute demand.
