Now is the time for performance. If you can't adjust your weighting, it's hard to endure | Myeong Min-jun, Kang A-rang, Lee Da-sol

Summary

Lee Da-sol, a branch manager at Meritz Securities, explains the current volatile Korean market using a four-season framework. He argues the market is in a summer earnings phase driven by the AI revolution, with sector leadership narrowing to semiconductors, power equipment, and robotics. He highlights the critical KOSDAQ 900 level as a make-or-break trigger and advises focusing on earnings-driven stocks with reasonable valuations while managing portfolio exposure for the cycle.

• Extreme volatility in a bull market is unusual but has historical precedents during Korea's market level-up phases.
• Retail investor deposits of 130 trillion won signal strong buying appetite and provide downside cushion.
• The four-season market cycle model (spring: financial, summer: earnings, autumn: reverse financial, winter: bear) places the current market in summer.
• The AI revolution is the driving theme, with leadership compressing to semiconductors, power equipment, and robotics.
• A break above KOSDAQ 900 would confirm bull leadership; failure could signal a double top and bear market.
• In summer earnings phase, focus on companies delivering actual earnings growth with reasonable valuations; high-P/E stocks are less attractive.
• Consumer recovery stocks are poised to benefit as the cycle matures.
• Position sizing should be adjusted based on the season to compound wealth and manage risk.