Soft Jobs, AI CapEx Surge, and Institutions Move Onchain: Bits + Bips
Speakers
Laura Shin — Host, Unchained
— Unchained podcast host
Austin Campbell — Managing Partner, Zero Knowledge Consulting
— Chopping Block co-host
Chris Perkins — President, CoinFund
— Chopping Block co-host
Summary
- Aave Labs is proposing a radical shift to a "token-centric" model where 100% of Labs' revenue (from products like GHO and Aave Arc) is directed to the DAO/token holders, while Labs shifts to a grant-funded model.
- Trueflation data suggests real-time inflation is currently below 1% (significantly lower than BLS data), driven by goods deflation, though commodities (energy, gold) remain strong.
- A major divergence is forming in the "AI Trade." The panel argues that Hyperscalers (Microsoft, Amazon, Meta) are damaging their balance sheets with excessive CapEx for uncertain returns, while "Picks and Shovels" (Nvidia) and capital preservers (Apple) remain technically strong.
- AI Agents are expected to drive a massive increase in high-throughput, low-value transactions, favoring Solana and US Dollar stablecoins (benefiting Coinbase) over Bitcoin.
Trade Ideas
Aave Labs proposed "Aave Will Win," which involves directing 100% of revenue from Labs-built products (GHO, etc.) directly to the Aave DAO/token holders. Labs will forego its own revenue capture in exchange for DAO grants. This proposal removes the "equity vs. token" conflict of interest. By funneling all revenue to the protocol rather than a private company, the value accrual to the AAVE token becomes direct and explicit, turning it into a cash-flow-generating asset. LONG. This is a fundamental restructuring of tokenomics that directly benefits holders. The proposal is a "temp check" and requires DAO approval; regulatory risks regarding revenue distribution.
Trueflation's real-time data shows aggregate inflation is below 1%, significantly lower than the Fed's lagging BLS data. If inflation is actually <1%, real interest rates are too high. The Fed will eventually be forced to cut rates aggressively to match reality, which causes bond yields to fall and bond prices (TLT) to rise. LONG. Macro data supports a dovish pivot. Sticky services inflation or a resurgence in energy costs keeps the Fed hawkish.
While general goods are deflationary, Stefan notes that "commodity prices... raw materials... gold, silver... energy" are moving upwards drastically. Despite the deflationary tech narrative, the physical inputs required for the new economy (batteries, energy for compute) are seeing structural demand, supporting prices. LONG. A hedge against the monetary debasement and physical scarcity. Global recession reducing demand for energy and industrial metals.
Rahm notes that Hyperscalers have committed ~$700B to AI CapEx based on revenue projections (e.g., Anthropic projecting $1T revenue) that he deems "insanity." He states their balance sheets are getting "dirty" with debt (Microsoft now has $500B debt/obligations). These companies are spending ahead of revenue. If the AI ROI lags, their free cash flow—which was previously used for stock buybacks—will evaporate. They are currently trading below their 200-day moving averages, signaling weakness. AVOID/SHORT. The risk/reward for the heavy spenders is skewed to the downside as they incinerate cash. AI revenue materializes faster than expected; the "AI Bubble" continues to inflate regardless of fundamentals.
Rahm highlights that Nvidia and Apple are the only major tech stocks trading *above* their 200-day moving averages. Nvidia is the recipient of the CapEx spending (selling the shovels), not the spender. Apple "sat this one out" regarding massive infrastructure spend, preserving its clean balance sheet. They are technically superior to the Hyperscalers. LONG. Relative strength trade within the tech sector. A general tech sector correction would drag these names down with the Hyperscalers.
Austin Campbell
Founder, Zero Knowledge Group; Co-host Bits+Bips (Unchained); Adj. Prof. NYU Stern
115:00
The panel agrees that AI Agents will conduct commerce using US Dollar stablecoins due to liquidity and unit of account. They require high-throughput, low-cost chains for micro-transactions. Bitcoin is ill-suited for agent micro-payments. Solana (SOL) is optimized for this throughput. Coinbase (COIN) is positioning itself as the infrastructure layer for this via Base and stablecoin custody. LONG. Betting on the infrastructure rails of the "Agentic Economy." Regulatory crackdowns on stablecoins; failure of AI agents to gain economic traction.
Institutions like BlackRock and Apollo are moving on-chain (e.g., BlackRock's BUIDL fund tradable via Uniswap). Regulatory risk is perceived to be diminishing ("Gensler era is over"). Institutions are comfortable using decentralized rails like Uniswap and Morpho even before full regulatory clarity, validating the protocol's long-term value. LONG. Institutional adoption of DeFi protocols is a massive tailwind. Continued regulatory enforcement actions; institutional preference for permissioned forks over public tokens.
Up Next
This Unchained (Chopping Block) video, published February 17, 2026, features Stani Kulechov, Stefan Rust, Ram Ahluwalia, Austin Campbell, Chris Perkins discussing AAVE, TLT, SLV, XLE, GLD, META, MSFT, AMZN, GOOGL, NVDA, AAPL, COIN, SOL, UNI. 7 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Stani Kulechov, Stefan Rust, Ram Ahluwalia, Austin Campbell, Chris Perkins · Tickers: AAVE, TLT, SLV, XLE, GLD, META, MSFT, AMZN, GOOGL, NVDA, AAPL, COIN, SOL, UNI