Stefan Rust 2.0 9 ideas

While general CPI is trending down (<1% per Trueflation), specific categories like "rare earths, energy, battery materials, gold, and silver" are moving upwards drastically. The AI and tech build-out requires massive physical resources (energy for compute, metals for hardware). Even in a deflationary consumer environment, the industrial input costs for the next tech cycle are rising. LONG. Hard assets hedge against both monetary debasement and the specific supply chain demands of the AI boom. A global recession suppresses industrial demand.

Institutions are moving on-chain despite low token prices. BlackRock is using Uniswap X; Apollo is acquiring Morpho tokens. Smart money is buying the "rails" and protocols during the bear market. The utility of swapping tokenized assets (e.g., JPM Coin for Mercado Libre Coin) will occur on decentralized exchanges like Uniswap. LONG. Institutional validation provides a floor, and future tokenized asset volume will drive protocol revenue. Continued regulatory hostility towards DeFi interfaces.

Trueflation's real-time data shows aggregate inflation is below 1%, significantly lower than the Fed's lagging BLS data. If inflation is actually <1%, real interest rates are too high. The Fed will eventually be forced to cut rates aggressively to match reality, which causes bond yields to fall and bond prices (TLT) to rise. LONG. Macro data supports a dovish pivot. Sticky services inflation or a resurgence in energy costs keeps the Fed hawkish.

While general goods are deflationary, Stefan notes that "commodity prices... raw materials... gold, silver... energy" are moving upwards drastically. Despite the deflationary tech narrative, the physical inputs required for the new economy (batteries, energy for compute) are seeing structural demand, supporting prices. LONG. A hedge against the monetary debasement and physical scarcity. Global recession reducing demand for energy and industrial metals.