Gamble Pays Off for Japan's Takaichi, Starmer Leadership on the Brink | The Pulse 2/9/2026

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  February 09, 2026 at 11:39  |  48:28  |  Bloomberg Markets
Speakers
Eric Lonergan — Head of discretionary macro, Calibrate Partners
Sylvia Westall — Managing Editor for Rates, Bloomberg
Vin — Cross Asset Strategist, Bloomberg
Jennifer Zabasajja — Chief Africa Correspondent, Bloomberg
Hugo Dobson — Professor of Japan's International Relations, University of Sheffield
Teresa Ribera — European Union Competition Commissioner
Paul Wallace — Team Leader/Senior Editor, Bloomberg
Joe Mays — U.K. Government Reporter, Bloomberg

Summary

Japan's Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi won a historic post-war parliamentary majority, driving a sharp rally in Japanese equities while leaving JGBs and the yen cautious on fiscal funding risk. In the UK, Keir Starmer's leadership crisis and a dovish Bank of England weighed on the pound and long-end gilts. The market roundtable debated AI bubble dynamics, European bonds as an AI hedge, gold's speculative rally, and software opportunities, while the EU competition commissioner discussed antitrust scrutiny of Meta, Google, Netflix/Warner Bros, and Chinese wind subsidies.

  • Takaichi wins historic Japanese supermajority; Nikkei and TOPIX rally on expected fiscal expansion.
  • Japan's bond and currency outlook remains uncertain due spending and tax-cut funding.
  • China's Treasury holdings advice is viewed as a diversification shift, not yet a U.S. asset selloff.
  • Eric Lonergan favors European bonds/German Bunds as an AI hedge and sees AI volatility and software opportunities.
  • Gold is called a speculative trend rather than a debasement trade.
  • UK political uncertainty and dovish BoE pressure the pound and long-end gilts.
  • EU competition watchdog warns Meta over WhatsApp AI assistants and monitors Google, streaming, and Chinese wind subsidies.
  • African critical-minerals producers are seen gaining opportunity from geopolitical supply-chain shifts.
Ideas
Alice 2:19
Japan equities gain on Takaichi spending
Takaichi's historic supermajority is expected to let her pursue expansionary fiscal policy and direct more public money into AI, quantum computing, defense, construction, and infrastructure, driving a roughly 4% rally in the Nikkei and TOPIX.
N225 TOPIX Japanese defense equities Japanese AI/quantum computing Japanese construction/infrastructure MED
Alice 2:40
Japan bonds, yen fiscal risk watch
The fiscal expansion and possible tax cuts create funding uncertainty, with the bond market and yen likely to be more skeptical than equities; past bond selloffs and yen weakness near intervention levels keep the outlook cautious.
Japanese government bonds FXY MED
Eric Lonergan Head of discretionary macro, Calibrate Partners 4:11
Long Bunds and European bonds
German Bunds are the best AI hedge if AI volatility builds, and European bonds look attractive because of steep curves, term premium, and the ECB's relative independence and power versus national governments.
BNDX IGOV HIGH
Eric Lonergan Head of discretionary macro, Calibrate Partners 6:36
Gold rally speculative, debasement thesis flawed
The gold debasement trade does not fit current evidence because inflation is coming down; the gold move is a speculative trend with a narrative backfilled around central-bank behavior rather than a fundamental inflation hedge.
GLD HIGH
Eric Lonergan Head of discretionary macro, Calibrate Partners 7:56
Want AI exposure for volatility
We are in an AI bubble as a social and psychological phenomenon with high asset prices and compressed time horizons, but that does not mean AI stocks are overvalued; he wants AI exposure because extraordinary price volatility is likely over the next 12-18 months.
AI-SECTOR HIGH
Eric Lonergan Head of discretionary macro, Calibrate Partners 8:40
Software fear creates long opportunities
Software is seeing profound fear and a sharp reversal, but earnings forecasts have not changed; within that debris there will be huge opportunities.
IGV MED
Sylvia Westall Managing Editor for Rates, Bloomberg 10:18
Short pound on UK political risk
UK political uncertainty around Keir Starmer, the fiscal plans tied to Starmer and Reeves, dovish Bank of England policy, and bearish hedge-fund positioning point to more pound weakness.
GBP HIGH
Vin Cross Asset Strategist, Bloomberg 28:40
UK 30-year gilts under pressure
UK political stalemate and fiscal uncertainty are embedding risk premium in long-end gilts, with long-end yields rising and the 30-year gilt under pressure as politics overrides the Bank of England in the near term.
30-year UK gilts HIGH
Jennifer Zabasajja Chief Africa Correspondent, Bloomberg 35:44
African mineral producers gain opportunity
Geopolitical tensions over critical minerals and a shift toward shared prosperity and downstream value creation could let African mineral producers step in, gain a seat at the table, and integrate regionally.
African mining/critical minerals producers MED
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This Bloomberg Markets video, published February 09, 2026, features Alice, Eric Lonergan, Sylvia Westall, Vin, Jennifer Zabasajja discussing N225, TOPIX, Japanese defense equities, Japanese AI/quantum computing, Japanese construction/infrastructure, Japanese government bonds, FXY, BNDX, IGOV, GLD, AI-SECTOR, IGV, GBP, 30-year UK gilts, African mining/critical minerals producers. 9 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Alice, Eric Lonergan, Sylvia Westall, Vin, Jennifer Zabasajja  · Tickers: N225, TOPIX, Japanese defense equities, Japanese AI/quantum computing, Japanese construction/infrastructure, Japanese government bonds, FXY, BNDX, IGOV, GLD, AI-SECTOR, IGV, GBP, 30-year UK gilts, African mining/critical minerals producers