Gas Prices Won't Drop Much Lower By Election Day, Says Rebecca Babin

Summary

Rebecca Babin discusses crude oil's rangebound market and the catalysts that could break it higher or lower, emphasizing China's near-term role in capping prices below $100. She sees a buyer's strike in crude into weekends and flags stretched refining capacity as a bullish risk for refined products. She expects gasoline and diesel to remain elevated into early November.

• Oil has traded rangebound around $80-$90 with a brief geopolitical spike.
• Upside catalysts include Hormuz disruption, Houthi Red Sea escalation, or stronger Chinese imports.
• Downside catalyst would be normalization of Hormuz flows plus rising non-OPEC supply.
• China is described as the near-term key swing factor keeping oil below $100.
• Near-term crude is in a buyer's strike with buyers waiting for China data and possible low-$70s entry.
• Refining utilization at 96% and deferred maintenance create outage risk and tight product markets.
• Gasoline forecast around $4.25-$4.30 by early November; diesel seen above $5.