OpenAI Revenue Run Rate Tops $40 Billion as IPO Plans Take Shape | The Pulse 8/14/2026

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  August 14, 2026 at 10:09  |  48:37  |  Bloomberg Markets
Speakers
Patrick Armstrong — CEO, Plume Wealth
Amanda Blanc — CEO, Aviva
Paul Davies — Bloomberg Opinion Columnist
Ven Ram — Markets Live Reporter/Strategist, Bloomberg
Matt Bloxham — Head of Research, The Block
Livia Paggi — Head of Political Risk, JS Held

Summary

The episode covers OpenAI's $40 billion revenue run rate and IPO momentum, US-Iran economic escalation and Strait of Hormuz oil risks, plus market implications of cooling US inflation. Patrick Armstrong of Plurimi Wealth lays out specific trades including TIPS over Treasuries, AI suppliers over hyperscalers, an oil and gas overweight, and European sector rotation. Later segments discuss Aviva's strong results, investment bank trading strength, and long-end Treasury yield risks.

  • OpenAI is on track for more than $40 billion in annualized revenue, with enterprise sales accelerating ahead of a possible IPO.
  • The US plans unprecedented economic measures against Iran, including a continued naval blockade and pressure around the Strait of Hormuz.
  • The US is imposing tariffs of up to 100% on some imported drones and components, escalating supply-chain decoupling from China.
  • Patrick Armstrong expects no Fed hike this year and prefers TIPS, AI suppliers, oil and gas stocks, and European earnings recovery over defense.
  • Aviva reports strong profit and highlights Direct Line integration, motor insurance pricing, and wealth platform growth.
  • Paul Davies sees strong investment bank trading conditions, while Jane Street's refinancing is tied to AI data center spending.
  • Ven Ram argues long-term Treasury yields will remain elevated because deficit and inflation progress are lacking.
  • Nigel Farage wins the Clacton-on-Sea special election; Europe's heatwave and drone-based weather forecasting are also covered.
Ideas
Patrick Armstrong CEO, Plume Wealth 6:48
Prefer TIPS over conventional Treasuries.
He dislikes conventional Treasuries because large deficits, populism, and no credible austerity or tax strategy make inflation the likely consequence. He prefers inflation-protected Treasuries because he cannot see inflation averaging under 2.2% per year over the next decade, and breakevens are pricing a too-perfect disinflation outcome.
Conventional US Treasuries HIGH
Patrick Armstrong CEO, Plume Wealth 6:48
Prefer TIPS over conventional Treasuries.
He dislikes conventional Treasuries because large deficits, populism, and no credible austerity or tax strategy make inflation the likely consequence. He prefers inflation-protected Treasuries because he cannot see inflation averaging under 2.2% per year over the next decade, and breakevens are pricing a too-perfect disinflation outcome.
TIP HIGH
Patrick Armstrong CEO, Plume Wealth 8:12
Own AI suppliers, avoid debt-funded hyperscalers.
He prefers companies receiving cash flow today from hyperscaler AI data center spend, such as memory and semiconductor suppliers, over the hyperscalers themselves. Micron, Samsung, and SK hynix have credible pricing power, 80% profit margins, incredible topline growth, and trade at single-digit multiples. Meanwhile, Microsoft, Amazon, and Oracle now need debt to fund capex and face monetization risk.
MU 000660.KS 005930.KS HIGH
Patrick Armstrong CEO, Plume Wealth 8:12
Own AI suppliers, avoid debt-funded hyperscalers.
He prefers companies receiving cash flow today from hyperscaler AI data center spend, such as memory and semiconductor suppliers, over the hyperscalers themselves. Micron, Samsung, and SK hynix have credible pricing power, 80% profit margins, incredible topline growth, and trade at single-digit multiples. Meanwhile, Microsoft, Amazon, and Oracle now need debt to fund capex and face monetization risk.
MSFT AMZN ORCL HIGH
Patrick Armstrong CEO, Plume Wealth 10:16
Favor European earnings recovery over defense.
He favors European industrials, financials, and healthcare because Europe is delivering double-digit earnings growth for the first time in a year. Plurimi moved out of defense and into energy infrastructure, and still holds European banks and healthcare, where topline, revenue, and earnings growth have been very good.
European industrials EUFN European Healthcare PAVE HIGH
Patrick Armstrong CEO, Plume Wealth 10:16
Favor European earnings recovery over defense.
He favors European industrials, financials, and healthcare because Europe is delivering double-digit earnings growth for the first time in a year. Plurimi moved out of defense and into energy infrastructure, and still holds European banks and healthcare, where topline, revenue, and earnings growth have been very good.
European Defense HIGH
Patrick Armstrong CEO, Plume Wealth 12:24
Overweight oil and gas stocks.
He is overweight oil and gas stocks because US sanctions and blockade mean the Strait of Hormuz is unlikely to be fully flowing near term, inventories have been drawing down dramatically, a complete shutdown could spike energy prices, refining margins are strong, and the market is complacent about those risks.
XLE HIGH
Amanda Blanc CEO, Aviva 15:12
Aviva's integration and pricing support upside.
Aviva is seeing strong performance with a 20% return on equity and six years of profitable growth. The Direct Line integration is going incredibly well, motor insurance pricing is hardening and Aviva is pricing ahead of the market, and the wealth platform now has over $260 billion, supporting confidence beyond 2028.
AV HIGH
Paul Davies Bloomberg Opinion Columnist 38:14
Investment bank trading revenues look strong.
Third-quarter investment bank trading revenues look strong: equities and prime brokerage activity have rebounded after the July AI de-risking, hedge fund gross leverage is back to the high 80s or 90s, and investment banks' trading businesses are led by prime brokerage, which is a good sign for the quarter.
Investment banks MED
Ven Ram Markets Live Reporter/Strategist, Bloomberg 47:48
Long-end Treasury yields stay elevated.
Long-end Treasury yields will stay elevated because deficit and inflation-control progress are lacking, investors are adding a term premium for the risk that the Fed accepts a 3% inflation world, and none of the measures to control long-term yields are working.
TLT MED
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This Bloomberg Markets video, published August 14, 2026, features Patrick Armstrong, Amanda Blanc, Paul Davies, Ven Ram discussing Conventional US Treasuries, TIP, MU, 000660.KS, 005930.KS, MSFT, AMZN, ORCL, European industrials, EUFN, European Healthcare, PAVE, European Defense, XLE, AV, Investment banks, TLT. 10 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Patrick Armstrong, Amanda Blanc, Paul Davies, Ven Ram  · Tickers: Conventional US Treasuries, TIP, MU, 000660.KS, 005930.KS, MSFT, AMZN, ORCL, European industrials, EUFN, European Healthcare, PAVE, European Defense, XLE, AV, Investment banks, TLT