Where Are We In The Cycle? | Willy Woo

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  July 21, 2025 at 20:58  |  1:15:19  |  1000x Podcast
Speakers
Willy Woo — On-chain analyst
Jonah Van Bourg — Head of Trading, Cumberland / ex-Vitol

Summary

Willy Woo joins Jonah Van Bourg to discuss where crypto is in the cycle. Woo argues liquidity is returning, Bitcoin is in a late-stage bull market but not yet at a cycle top, and his models show rotation into Ethereum and altcoins. The conversation covers on-chain liquidity indicators, network capital flows, cycle-top risk, and a large BTC wallet event. Jonah also argues macro stimulus likely backstops any crisis, which he sees as bullish Bitcoin.

  • Willy Woo sees liquidity returning and a late-stage crypto bull market.
  • His model has rotated toward Ethereum and shows an emerging alt impulse.
  • Bitcoin network flows and liquidity models suggest medium-term upside with near-term purge risk.
  • Woo identifies $140k-$160k as a potential de-risk zone if a business-cycle downturn comes early.
  • The hosts discuss MVRV validity, paper derivatives, and a large BTC transfer.
  • Jonah Van Bourg argues any economic crisis would be met with stimulus, bullish Bitcoin.
  • SwissBlock/Bitcoin Vector tools and on-chain data access are discussed.
Ideas
Willy Woo On-chain analyst 0:00
Late-cycle liquidity supports Bitcoin, not top yet.
Liquidity is returning to the market and Bitcoin is the most liquidity-sensitive global macro asset. The liquidity/risk models show a late-stage bull market where rallies are strongest and volatility is high, but the risk signal has reset after liquidity came in, so he does not see a cycle top or rug yet. He expects a blow-off top before any business-cycle downturn, with possible near-term liquidation purges but a medium-term upward bias.
BTC HIGH
Willy Woo On-chain analyst 5:40
Alt season impulse favors altcoins.
The model is picking up an alt impulse: capital is coming into altcoins, the top 100 coins show positive impulse, and the volatility structure suggests an exponential run. He expects the classic bull-run cascade from Ethereum to large caps, midcaps, and low caps, making alt season likely to go full boar with favorable risk-reward.
ALTCOINS Mid-cap crypto Small-cap crypto HIGH
Willy Woo On-chain analyst 12:34
Ethereum-led rotation is just beginning.
The SwissBlock model switched from Bitcoin to Ethereum around July 10. Capital is rotating from Bitcoin into Ethereum and ETH/BTC has already rallied 50-60% off lows, but the model suggests this is the beginning of a longer ETH-led move, not the end. He expects a cascade into large, mid, and small caps.
ETH ETH/BTC HIGH
Jonah Van Bourg Head of Trading, Cumberland / ex-Vitol 31:58
Stimulus backstop is bullish Bitcoin.
His public macro bet is that there will be no proper economic downturn until a political shift toward socialist/redistributionist leaders creates an electoral mandate to let markets crash. Any financial crisis will be met with stimulus/money printing, which he sees as bullish Bitcoin until that political shift occurs.
BTC HIGH
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This 1000x Podcast video, published July 21, 2025, features Willy Woo, Jonah Van Bourg discussing BTC, ALTCOINS, Mid-cap crypto, Small-cap crypto, ETH, ETH/BTC. 4 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Willy Woo, Jonah Van Bourg  · Tickers: BTC, ALTCOINS, Mid-cap crypto, Small-cap crypto, ETH, ETH/BTC