Name: Markets On Verge Of Big Breakout; Chris Vermeulen Reveals Top Trades
Uploaded: 2025-01-21T21:13:56+00:00
Duration: 1539 s

Speakers

Chris Vermeulen — Chief Market Strategist, TheTechnicalTraders

Summary

David Lin interviews Chris Vermeulen of The Technical Traders about market volatility around Trump's inauguration, the risk of a market top, and how he is positioning. Vermeulen is defensive in the short term, holding the U.S. dollar and cash-like positions while waiting for a new equity buy signal, and he outlines bearish energy/dividend/real estate views plus a patient bond setup and a preference for gold over miners.

Chris Vermeulen says the S&P 500 gave a sell signal and he is tactically sidelined in a U.S. dollar ETF.
He sees a possible final equity push higher, with Nasdaq potentially up 10%-11% if a buy signal comes.
Long term, he remains in the bull market but expects signs of a market top this year.
He warns of a 40%-50% reset in energy stocks and says dividend stocks carry crowded panic risk.
He expects real estate/housing to roll over by summer, potentially contributing to recession.
He likes gold over gold miners now, while watching miners for a later 2009-style opportunity.
He is waiting for a bond rally after rate cuts, likely later this year, rather than bottom-fishing now.
He avoids crypto due to lack of interest/rotation data and criticizes leveraged trading and buy-and-hold.

Ideas

Chris Vermeulen Chief Market Strategist, TheTechnicalTraders 2:43

Long dollar as defensive cash-like hedge.

He is holding a US Dollar Index ETF as a defensive, low-volatility cash-like position because continued macro uncertainty and potential equity selling should drive the dollar higher.

Chris Vermeulen Chief Market Strategist, TheTechnicalTraders 3:21

Watch Nasdaq for 10-11% upside.

After a sell signal got him out of stocks, he is waiting for a new buy signal to re-enter the S&P 500/Nasdaq; he sees a possible final push higher, especially if Trump’s inauguration sparks a surge, and says Nasdaq could run about 10%-11%.

Chris Vermeulen Chief Market Strategist, TheTechnicalTraders 8:19

Short energy stocks for 40-50% reset.

Energy stocks have rallied even as oil prices fell; XLE’s chart has layered pivot lows that could trigger cascading protective stops, and he expects a 40%-50% wipeout or reset in energy equities.

Chris Vermeulen Chief Market Strategist, TheTechnicalTraders 9:20

Housing rollover likely by summer.

He expects U.S. housing/real estate to roll over by end of summer because record supply is coming on market, pending sales are low and mortgage rates are high; falling home prices could pressure investors and trigger recession.

Chris Vermeulen Chief Market Strategist, TheTechnicalTraders 11:28

Dividend stocks carry crowded panic risk.

Dividend stocks are dangerous because they are crowded in the same blue-chip names, so panic selling hits them harder than broad indices; they recently fell about twice as much and fell 48% during COVID versus 35% for stocks.

Chris Vermeulen Chief Market Strategist, TheTechnicalTraders 16:10

Gold stable, may drift higher.

He prefers the underlying metal over gold stocks because gold is more stable and globally valued; he expects it to hold its value and drift a little higher while allowing more capital to be deployed without single-miner blowup risk.

Chris Vermeulen Chief Market Strategist, TheTechnicalTraders 16:47

Watch miners for later 2009-style setup.

Gold miners are currently a higher-risk struggle and not worth entering now, but he sees a future sweet spot to buy them, similar to the post-2009 miner opportunity, once conditions improve.

Markets On Verge Of Big Breakout; Chris Vermeulen Reveals Top Trades

Summary

Ideas

Up Next