All-In Inauguration Day Livestream with the Besties from Washington, DC!

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  January 20, 2025 at 18:15  |  2:46:59  |  All-In Podcast
Speakers
David Friedberg — CEO, The Production Board
Mark Pincus — Founder, Zynga
Jason Calacanis — Angel Investor / Founder, LAUNCH

Summary

All-In ran a live inauguration-day special from Washington, DC, hosted by Jason Calacanis with David Friedberg on set, guests Mark Pincus and comedian Akaash Singh, and Chamath Palihapitiya reporting from the Capitol. Most of the stream is inauguration logistics, party recaps, political commentary and a live watch-along of Donald Trump's address. The investment-relevant content is concentrated in two threads: whether DOGE can really cut federal spending and what that implies for US Treasuries, and a later discussion of Social Security, deficits and structurally rising long-term yields. Crypto and GLP-1 drugs come up mainly as news recaps and sponsor reads rather than as investment theses.

  • Live inauguration-day stream from DC; Chamath reports from the Capitol overflow room while the rest of the panel watches from a hotel set.
  • DOGE dominates the policy talk: return-to-office mandates, outside contractors at roughly 70% of federal labor spend, and deregulation as the main cost levers.
  • Mark Pincus says he was recruited for DOGE, was conflicted out as a former large Democratic donor, and expects the effort to over-deliver.
  • David Friedberg argues that if DOGE really cuts deficits, Treasuries sold off to about 5% yields look like a buy.
  • Later macro thread: Social Security is expected to break around 2030-2032, forcing more issuance and money printing and pushing long-term US yields higher.
  • Crypto segment covers the Trump and Melania meme coins, pump.fun, Gary Gensler's exit from the SEC, and criticism of Michael Saylor's leveraged bitcoin strategy.
  • Health thread covers GLP-1 indications beyond weight loss and microplastics and chemicals in the food supply, with FDA and EPA review expected under RFK Jr.
  • Trump's address is watched live: national energy emergency and drill baby drill, tariffs and an External Revenue Service, ending the EV mandate, and reclaiming the Panama Canal.
Ideas
David Friedberg CEO, The Production Board 39:26
Buy Treasuries if DOGE cuts deficits.
Longer-term US structural problems, above all a Social Security system that politicians privately admit breaks around 2030-2032, force the government to issue and print far more debt. Someone has to be willing to buy that paper, and the market keeps showing that the US must pay a higher and higher interest rate to keep lenders, so a 30-year already at about 5% is on a path toward 6-8% and long-dated Treasury prices keep falling.
Up Next

This All-In Podcast video, published January 20, 2025, features David Friedberg discussing TLT. 1 trade idea extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: David Friedberg  · Tickers: TLT