Live from Bloomberg Invest: Bloomberg Deals 3/04/2026
Speakers
Summary
- Macro Context (March 4, 2026): The U.S. is in Day 5 of a war with Iran. Markets are volatile but resilient ("shrugging it off"). Rates remain high, and tariffs are a lingering concern.
- Private Equity Pivot: The "Golden Era" of easy money (2010-2025) is over. The industry is becoming "K-Shaped"—large, diversified firms with dry powder (KKR, Blackstone) will consolidate share, while smaller firms unable to return capital will liquidate or be acquired.
- M&A Renaissance: Despite the war, M&A is active. Financials (Santander/Webster), Asset Managers (Janus/Victory), and Media (Netflix/WBD fallout) are in play.
- The AI/Energy Nexus: A major theme is the physical infrastructure required for AI. Utilities and land owners (like National Fuel Gas) are being repriced as data center power plays.
Trade Ideas
KKR holds $118 billion in "dry powder" (cash). Nuttall states the industry is entering a "K-shaped" recovery where large, diversified players win, and smaller firms face a "shakeout." He explicitly notes that volatility (war/rates) creates the best vintage years for deployment. Market fear regarding the Iran war and private credit liquidity is overstated for the giants. These firms benefit from dislocation. When the market freezes, cash-rich incumbents buy assets at distressed valuations. The "shakeout" of smaller players reduces competition for the giants. Long the "Alternative Asset Kings" who act as liquidity providers of last resort. Prolonged conflict causes a total freeze in exit markets (IPOs/M&A), trapping capital.
Netflix "folded" and backed out of the auction for Warner Bros Discovery (WBD). Gabelli suggests Netflix should now "think about knocking on Sony's door" to partner on IP/content. Netflix has cash but needs deep IP libraries to compete with the consolidated legacy studios. With WBD off the table, Sony Pictures (the only major studio without a general entertainment streaming service) becomes the most logical partner or acquisition target for content licensing. Watch for partnership rumors between NFLX and SONY. Sony refuses to license core IP; Netflix decides to build rather than buy.
Victory Capital (VCTR) has submitted a "superior proposal" to acquire Janus Henderson (JHG), despite JHG already agreeing to a deal with Trian/General Catalyst. Brown states "all options are on the table." JHG is the target of a bidding war. An unsolicited "superior" cash/stock offer usually forces the original bidder to raise their price or the target to accept the higher bid. Long JHG as an arbitrage play on a higher final takeover price. Deal falls through entirely; regulatory antitrust concerns.
Mario Gabelli
Legendary Media Investor
Gabelli discusses "financial engineering" in sports. He mentions the Dolan family splitting the Rangers/Knicks (MSGS) and Manchester United (MANU) owners potentially monetizing their remaining stake. Sports teams are trading at massive private market multiples that are not reflected in public stocks. "Spin-offs" and "selling pieces" (minority stakes) to private equity allow these public companies to close the valuation gap. Long sports holding companies as they liquidate/structure value. Recession impacts ticket sales/media rights; family control prevents shareholder-friendly actions.
Ana Botín
Executive Chair, Banco Santander
Santander (SAN) is merging its US operations with Webster Financial (WBS). Botín confirms they will "keep the Webster brand" and that the deal allows them to compete in the "Northeast economy" (size of the UK). This is a scale play. By combining Santander's global tech platform ($1B investment in AI/Tech) with Webster's local footprint, they aim to increase profitability through efficiency (cost/income ratio targeting 36%). Long the combined entity on cost synergies and regional consolidation. Integration execution risk; exposure to US commercial real estate (common in regional banks).
Mario Gabelli
Legendary Media Investor
Gabelli explicitly identifies a company in "Akron, Ohio" with an "auto parts distribution business" focused on tires/replacements. He states: "Tomorrow, you will be in an announcement." Myers Industries (MYE) is headquartered in Akron, Ohio, and specializes in tire repair and retreading products. Gabelli is signaling an imminent corporate event or value realization catalyst for this specific micro-cap. Long on the specific catalyst call. The announcement is delayed or underwhelming; liquidity in micro-caps is low.
Mario Gabelli
Legendary Media Investor
Gabelli highlights National Fuel Gas (NFG) as a company that "owns land" and has "LNG" capabilities. He suggests they can "sell a piece of their utility business" to power data centers. This is an AI infrastructure derivative trade. Data centers require massive power. Utilities with excess land and natural gas access (for on-site power generation) are prime targets for hyperscalers (Amazon/Microsoft) or spinoffs to unlock value. Long as an asset-play/break-up candidate. Regulatory blocking of utility asset sales; natural gas price volatility.
Up Next
This Bloomberg Markets video, published March 04, 2026, features Scott Nuttall, Mario Gabelli, David Brown, Ana Botín discussing BX, APO, KKR, NFLX, SONY, JHG, MSGS, MANU, SAN, WBS, MYE, NFG. 7 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Scott Nuttall, Mario Gabelli, David Brown, Ana Botín · Tickers: BX, APO, KKR, NFLX, SONY, JHG, MSGS, MANU, SAN, WBS, MYE, NFG