Ideas
Profit-taking may hit KOSDAQ and metals.
After a spectacular January for gold, silver and Korean equities, he expects profit-taking and hot-money outflows to hit the KOSDAQ index and precious metals hardest, with Korean stocks and metals likely to pull back in the near term; the Korean won is less exposed unless foreigners reverse flows.
Watch 40-year JGB auction and yen.
A single rate check is not enough; Japanese authorities may need to be more forceful. The 40-year JGB auction is a major event, and a bad auction could spill into the currency and force further intervention, making Japanese rates and yen a key monitorable setup.
Maia 200 cuts costs, boosts Microsoft.
Microsoft's new Maia 200 AI chip is designed for inference, is faster and more powerful than the prior generation, and is about 30% cheaper than comparable AI silicon; this should lower Copilot inference costs and potentially boost adoption over the next 12-24 months, supporting Microsoft shares.
Nvidia investment supports CoreWeave capacity.
Nvidia is investing an additional $2 billion in CoreWeave by buying stock at $87.20 per share to help build more than five gigawatts of AI computing capacity by the end of the decade; the long-standing partnership validates CoreWeave's position and the stock rose on the news.
Risks skewed toward dollar weakness.
The dollar trend is weaker, and with a U.S. shutdown looming, Fed policy uncertainty, and signs the U.S. is comfortable with dollar weakness, he would not fight the downtrend; risks are skewed toward further dollar weakness this year.
Tariff threat is negative for won.
The fresh U.S. tariff threat is negative for the Korean won and also warns other countries; while yen strength and intervention risk may offer some support, the tariff headline is a clear negative for KRW.
USD/JPY intervention risk caps upside.
Coordinated U.S.-Japan intervention risk caps USD/JPY upside, but if the market avoids intervention, the Fed, and a government shutdown, USD/JPY may drift back higher to test authorities; it is a key event-driven setup.
Carry favorites: real, lira, peso.
Carry trades remain attractive because they offer stability amid dollar uncertainty; he highlights high-yielding currencies such as the Brazilian real, Turkish lira, and Mexican peso as favorites.
Gold forecast $5,400, risks higher.
Goldman forecasts gold at $5,400 and sees risks as significant to that target; central-bank reserve diversification remains a durable demand source, while investor demand is adding a more fickle but supportive layer.
Yen undervalued on PPP basis.
The yen is very far out of balance on PPP grounds and the IMF estimates fair value around 94, implying significant undervaluation even if there are reasons it may not fully converge; Japanese inflation and growth are gradually normalizing.
Dollar expensive; Fed cuts weigh.
He is very bearish on the dollar because it remains expensive, the Fed is likely to cut rates, U.S. growth is strong but decelerating, and these factors should drive further dollar declines this year.
Value sectors to outperform tech.
While U.S. tech fundamentals remain strong and it may be too early to sell, he prefers other sectors and believes value sectors will continue to outperform given solid earnings, falling inflation and lower rates.
China/Asia equities as cheaper safe haven.
He wants to broaden beyond U.S. tech into Asia, where Chinese players are strong, innovative and cheaper than U.S. peers, and the Chinese market can act as a relative safe haven amid volatile Western policy headlines.
Dollar weakness lifts EM currencies.
Dollar weakness and renewed debasement debate could push the MSCI EM currency index, already at a record, even higher; carry demand and expected PBOC guidance are additional anchors supporting emerging-market and Asian currencies.
Private markets offer diversification and selectivity.
Private markets offer diversification because the opportunity set is much larger than public markets, with 140,000 private companies with earnings over $100 million versus 19,000 public stocks, allowing selectivity to generate income and protect the downside.
U.S. private markets very attractive.
The U.S. remains very attractive for private-market lending because the economy is relatively strong, tax credits are returning, the Fed has cut rates with potentially more to come, and scale managers have selectivity to generate returns and protect downside.
Europe sale-leaseback offers opportunity.
Blue Owl sees an attractive opportunity in Europe doing sale-leaseback and triple-net-lease deals, a strategy they have run for 15 years, and capital is migrating to Europe for such opportunities.
Australian private markets demand strong.
Australia is one of the fastest-growing private-markets markets, supported by compulsory savings of 12%, a market expected to be the second largest by 2032, and already about 18% of global private-market allocations; demand for alternatives is strong and the trend should continue.
Renewables face slower growth headwinds.
Renewable-energy investment declined in 2025 and is expected to remain under pressure in 2026, with headwinds in China, the U.S. and other markets and slower growth than before.
EV and storage booms offset renewables.
While renewable-energy investment faces headwinds and slower growth in 2026, electrified transport and energy storage are expected to see significant booms this year that make up for the renewable decline and keep overall energy-transition investment growth positive.
This Bloomberg Markets video, published January 27, 2026,
features Mark Cranfield, Annabel Droulers, David Finnerty, Jan Hatzius, Luca Paolini, Marcus Wong, James Clarke, Ali Izadi
discussing KOSDAQ Index, GLD, SILVER, FXY, 40-year JGB, MSFT, CoreWeave, UUP, USD/KRW, USD/JPY, BRL, TRY, MXN, Value sectors, AAXJ, FXI, MSCI EM Currency Index, Private markets, U.S. private markets, European sale-leaseback, Triple net lease, Australian private markets, SOLAR, ICLN, KARS.
20 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers:
Mark Cranfield,
Annabel Droulers,
David Finnerty,
Jan Hatzius,
Luca Paolini,
Marcus Wong,
James Clarke,
Ali Izadi
· Tickers:
KOSDAQ Index,
GLD,
SILVER,
FXY,
40-year JGB,
MSFT,
CoreWeave,
UUP,
USD/KRW,
USD/JPY,
BRL,
TRY,
MXN,
Value sectors,
AAXJ,
FXI,
MSCI EM Currency Index,
Private markets,
U.S. private markets,
European sale-leaseback,
Triple net lease,
Australian private markets,
SOLAR,
ICLN,
KARS
