Ideas
US equities face significant downside after breakdown.
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 have broken major uptrend support after the December 16 cycle top, turning the market from sideways consolidation to a sell-the-rally regime. He cites technical damage, slowing profit forecasts, tariff/inflation worries, and softening economic data that raise stagflation risk. Bounces should be sold, and a break of SPY's roughly 590 trend line points to a much bigger corrective decline.
Walmart warns consumer slowdown at high valuation.
Walmart's weak guidance and 40x forward P/E mark a major turning point because the consumer, including mid-to-upper tier, is slowing. Its post-earnings drop is not over and signals trouble for the US economy and stock market.
Speculative high-flyers punished as money exits.
Money is exiting speculative and high-multiple momentum names rather than rotating. Palantir, AppLovin, Oklo, Hims & Hers, and Robinhood had meteoric runs and are now breaking down or getting punished, showing broad de-risking by institutional and retail investors.
Bitcoin likely falls to $73k-$75k.
Bitcoin failed at a long-term trendline and broke short-term support, likely heading lower to major support around $73,000-$75,000. He is sitting on the sidelines and not chasing, waiting for that pullback.
Gold heads to $3,300 and higher.
Gold may pull back near term due to panic selling and a wall of sellers before $3,000, but he remains bullish. The next move should break $3,000 and he raises his year-end target to $3,300, with $4,500-$5,000 possible in a couple of years as debt/deficit concerns and safe-haven demand grow.
Rotate to defensive dividend stocks.
With the economy slowing and recession risk rising, he would rotate toward defensive names: low-risk stable companies with dividends that are less hurt in a recession and attract money as investors de-risk from cyclicals and high-flyers.
Pfizer offers defensive yield at lows.
He is accumulating Pfizer because it pays a relatively high 5%-6% dividend, is at the low end of its chart and very beaten down, and is outperforming during market weakness, making it a defensive holding for a slowdown.
Biogen is cheap defensive biotech breakout.
He loves Biogen as a cheap defensive biotech: 8.7x forward P/E, breaking out of a down-sloping trendline, low valuation, and healthcare demand persists through recessions.
Oil may crash to $35 on breakdown.
Oil is trapped below a multi-year trendline and bouncing at $65-$66; if that level breaks, he sees a possible drop to $35 within six months. He is not short now, but would short after a confirmed breakdown.
Big cap tech vulnerable as growth slows.
Big cap tech and Technology names are his least favorite area: slower economic growth means less earnings growth, valuations are historically overdone, and he wants to wait for bounces to exit. Google is into support and may bounce, while Amazon has rolled over, but these are de-risking/avoid candidates rather than immediate shorts.
Nvidia downside target is 90s or below.
Nvidia is part of the overvalued big-cap tech complex and he sees a lot of downside, back to the $90s or below in coming months as slower economic growth pressures earnings and valuations.
This The David Lin Report video, published February 26, 2025,
features Gareth Soloway
discussing SPY, QQQ, WMT, PLTR, APP, OKLO, HIMS, HOOD, BTC, GLD, XLP, PFE, BIIB, WTI, XLK, GOOGL, AMZN, NVDA.
11 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers:
Gareth Soloway
· Tickers:
SPY,
QQQ,
WMT,
PLTR,
APP,
OKLO,
HIMS,
HOOD,
BTC,
GLD,
XLP,
PFE,
BIIB,
WTI,
XLK,
GOOGL,
AMZN,
NVDA
