Squawk Pod: Kevin Hassett, Sen. Rand Paul, & the property brothers - 03/17/26 | Audio Only
Speakers
Kevin Hassett -- National Economic Council Director
— NEC Director
Becky Quick -- Host
— CNBC Squawk Box host
Andrew Ross Sorkin -- Host
— CNBC Squawk Box host
Summary
- Kevin Hassett (White House NEC Director) states the U.S. is "ahead of schedule" in a 4-6 week war with Iran, expecting a resolution in weeks, not months.
- Hassett forecasts oil prices (WTI) to decline significantly post-war, citing futures markets pointing to the $50s-$60s range by year-end due to a reduced geopolitical risk premium and increased investment in a more stable Gulf region.
- He outlines contingency plans for supply chain disruptions, including securing alternative fertilizer sources from Venezuela and Barrick to offset potential shortages from Qatar.
- Senator Rand Paul expresses strong opposition to the war, questioning its U.S. national interest and citing high costs (~$2B/day) and risks to service members.
- Paul is skeptical that oil prices will fall quickly ("sticky on the downside") even after hostilities cease, noting this could pose a political risk for Republicans if prices remain elevated near the election.
- He previews scrutiny of DHS nominee Senator Mark Wayne Mullen's prolific and successful stock trading, particularly in defense contractors, raising ethical "smell test" concerns.
- Jonathan and Drew Scott identify the U.S. housing crisis as fundamentally a supply issue, citing an estimated 3.8 million unit shortage, not primarily an interest rate problem.
- They state that 80% of current mortgage holders have rates under 6%, creating "golden handcuffs" and severely limiting resale inventory.
- The Scotts criticize the "Not In My Backyard" (NIMBY) mentality and excessive regulation, claiming affordable housing projects using government funds can cost ~40% more due to rules like prevailing wage requirements.
- They propose policy incentives to boost supply, such as allowing higher loan-to-value refinancing (up to 95% as in Canada) for affordable multi-family projects to free up developer capital.
- They highlight modular construction as a potential cost-saving solution but note the challenge of preventing buyers from immediately reselling at market rate.
Trade Ideas
Hassett states the Iran war is "ahead of schedule" on a 4-6 week timeline and will end "soon." He cites WTI futures markets pointing to prices in the $50s-$60s by year-end. A swift end to the war removes the immediate supply disruption and geopolitical risk premium. Long-term, a stabilized Middle East is expected to encourage investment and increase oil supply, driving prices down. The administration's confident, short-war forecast and reference to futures markets imply a significant downside price trajectory once the conflict concludes. The war lasts longer than the stated 4-6 week timeline, causing prolonged supply disruption and sustained price pressure.
Up Next
This CNBC video, published March 17, 2026, features Kevin Hassett discussing WTI. 1 trade idea extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Kevin Hassett · Tickers: WTI