Bloomberg Surveillance 8/20/2026

Watch on YouTube ↗ | August 20, 2026 at 15:19 | 2:24:21 | Bloomberg Markets

Speakers

Peter Tchir — Head of Macro Strategy, Academy Securities

Collin Martin — Chief Fixed Income Strategist, Charles Schwab

Jack Manley — JPMorgan Asset Management

Daleep Singh — Vice Chair, PGIM

Jeff Jacobson — 22V Research

Guneet Dhingra — Head of US Rates Strategy, BNP Paribas

Mona Mahajan — Head of Investment Strategy, Edward Jones

David Bellinger — Senior Equity Analyst, Mizuho

Yahaira Jacquez — Reuters Video Journalist

Mary Daly — President, San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank

Nela Richardson — Chief Economist, ADP

Krishna Guha — Evercore ISI

Lisa Abramowicz — Anchor, Bloomberg Television and Radio

Summary

The show focuses on the Treasury's emergency buyback of long-dated bonds after yields spiked and U.S. debt passed $40 trillion. Guests debate whether the intervention is credible, how the Fed should respond, and what it means for the dollar, bonds, equities, housing, and commodities. Several strategists favor shorter-duration Treasuries or alternatives while others see a hawkish Fed risk. Walmart's weak same-store sales and housing affordability stress add consumer warnings.

Treasury doubled buybacks of 10-30 year debt to cap long-end yields, but yields resumed rising.
Peter Tchir sees need for Operation Twist or strong Fed rate-cut rhetoric and prefers corporates/foreign sovereigns over Treasuries.
Daleep Singh warns Treasury intervention creates rollover/term-premium risk and could force Fed hikes.
Strategists debate whether long-end yields reflect AI/sovereign supply, Fed credibility, or fiscal deficits.
Housing analyst sees homebuilder stress as affordability dries up.
Walmart posts slowest U.S. same-store sales growth in six years.
San Francisco Fed's Mary Daly says policy is in a good place and sees no urgent case for preemptive hikes.

Ideas

Peter Tchir Head of Macro Strategy, Academy Securities 9:45

Bitcoin benefits from flawed yield interventions.

Treasury attempts to cap long-term yields will push investors away from assets that feel artificially suppressed and toward alternatives that can do well outside that manipulation; Bitcoin's recent move reflects that rotation.

Peter Tchir Head of Macro Strategy, Academy Securities 19:54

Iran sanctions create oil buying opportunity.

New Iran sanctions risk disrupting global oil flows and are unlikely to be implemented without higher realized oil prices, creating an opportunity to buy oil in global markets.

Peter Tchir Head of Macro Strategy, Academy Securities 22:52

Underweight Treasuries; overweight corporates and foreign sovereigns.

U.S. Treasuries have become generic and are increasingly subject to discretionary interventions; investors should be very underweight Treasuries and overweight rock-solid AA/AAA corporate credit and foreign sovereigns, which offer better yield and governance.

Peter Tchir Head of Macro Strategy, Academy Securities 22:52

Underweight Treasuries; overweight corporates and foreign sovereigns.

U.S. Treasuries have become generic and are increasingly subject to discretionary interventions; investors should be very underweight Treasuries and overweight rock-solid AA/AAA corporate credit and foreign sovereigns, which offer better yield and governance.

Collin Martin Chief Fixed Income Strategist, Charles Schwab 36:13

Prefer short and medium-term Treasury securities.

Treasury buybacks are only a short-term fix; long-term yields still face fiscal and supply pressure. He would sell the long end if the Fed cut rates and currently favors short and medium-term Treasury securities.

Collin Martin Chief Fixed Income Strategist, Charles Schwab 37:29

Investors underallocated to international bonds.

With global yields rising and U.S. fiscal deficits persistent, domestic investors are underallocated to global bonds; adding international fixed-income exposure can diversify away from U.S. dollar-denominated debt.

Jack Manley JPMorgan Asset Management 56:24

Long-term bullish on U.S. equities.

Despite rising long-end yields, the macro backdrop and earnings story remain intact, AI tailwinds are strong, and equities historically rally post-midterm; she remains constructive on U.S. equities unless yields break above her 4.5-5% range.

Daleep Singh Vice Chair, PGIM 65:56

Treasury intervention raises term premium, long-end risk.

Treasury buybacks are not big enough to change Treasury supply/demand and create higher rollover risk and term premium; it may force the Fed to hike and sets up a front-end doom loop, so he does not like long-duration Treasuries.

Daleep Singh Vice Chair, PGIM 69:05

Sell dollar; buy gold, digital, non-dollar.

If the Fed continues to sit on its hands, markets will keep selling the long end and the dollar while buying gold, digital assets, and non-dollar currencies.

Daleep Singh Vice Chair, PGIM 69:05

Sell dollar; buy gold, digital, non-dollar.

If the Fed continues to sit on its hands, markets will keep selling the long end and the dollar while buying gold, digital assets, and non-dollar currencies.

Jeff Jacobson 22V Research 79:52

Housing may have run out of buyers.

Higher mortgage rates and stretched affordability have dried up buyers; there are early stress signs in lumber and builder incentives, and homebuilders levered to new construction look vulnerable to a housing demand shortfall.

Guneet Dhingra Head of US Rates Strategy, BNP Paribas 89:52

Long-end vulnerable until Fed credibility restored.

The bond market is signaling faltering Fed credibility; unless the market prices three to four hikes or the Fed offers new clarity, long-end yields remain vulnerable to push higher.

David Bellinger Senior Equity Analyst, Mizuho 113:53

Walmart print messy; stock vulnerable.

Walmart's U.S. same-store sales growth was the slowest in over six years and missed even the lowest expectations; with a high multiple, pharmacy price headwinds, competition, and low-income consumer stress, the stock is vulnerable.

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This Bloomberg Markets video, published August 20, 2026, features Peter Tchir, Collin Martin, Jack Manley, Daleep Singh, Jeff Jacobson, Guneet Dhingra, David Bellinger discussing BTC, WTI, U.S. corporate credit, Foreign sovereign bonds, TLT, SHY, Intermediate-term Treasuries, BNDX, SPY, long-term U.S. Treasuries, UUP, Non-dollar currencies, GLD, BITO, US Homebuilders, 30-year U.S. Treasuries, WMT. 13 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Peter Tchir, Collin Martin, Jack Manley, Daleep Singh, Jeff Jacobson, Guneet Dhingra, David Bellinger · Tickers: BTC, WTI, U.S. corporate credit, Foreign sovereign bonds, TLT, SHY, Intermediate-term Treasuries, BNDX, SPY, long-term U.S. Treasuries, UUP, Non-dollar currencies, GLD, BITO, US Homebuilders, 30-year U.S. Treasuries, WMT