Trump’s Payout Promise, Apple Unveils First Foldable iPhone

Watch on YouTube ↗ | September 10, 2026 at 10:38 | 48:50 | Bloomberg Markets

Speakers

Katharine Neiss — PGIM Credit Deputy Head of Global Economics

Michael Haigh — Head of Commodities Research, Societe Generale

Chris Wright — US Energy Secretary

Oliver Crook — Chief European Correspondent, Bloomberg

Anna Edwards — Anchor, Bloomberg TV (London)

Summary

The episode covers escalating U.S.-Iran tensions and oil market risks, a Trump midterm payout promise, and the implications for U.S. Treasuries and central banks. Katharine Neiss discusses fiscal credibility, the ECB path, and French political risk, while Michael Haigh argues the Treasury market faces a funding glut, the yen is pressured by BOJ credibility, and gold and copper are attractive. U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright expects gasoline prices to fall, and Apple's foldable iPhone is mentioned without a clear investment thesis.

Iran says it is ready to escalate the war; Brent crude holds above $101 on Strait of Hormuz disruption fears.
Trump promises a $5,000 payout to every American adult if Republicans win the midterms, with bond markets showing skepticism.
Katharine Neiss sees U.S. 10-year yields with upward risk but not over 5%, and warns French bond risk is undercounted.
The ECB is expected to hike to 2.5%, described as the last easy hike before restrictive territory.
Michael Haigh says a funding glut and U.S. deficits are pressuring long-end Treasury yields.
Michael Haigh recommends gold amid uncertainty and sees copper in a supply deficit with military demand.
Chris Wright expects U.S. gasoline prices to fall, while diesel remains a bigger challenge.
Apple unveils the iPhone Duo foldable smartphone, but no clear stock thesis is discussed.

Ideas

Katharine Neiss PGIM Credit Deputy Head of Global Economics 12:01

10-year yield may rise, not exceed 5%

Fiscal credibility is eroding because governments are not scaling back spending, but she does not think the U.S. 10-year yield will exceed 5%. Yields still have room to move higher, with the path depending on Fed clarity and whether higher long-end rates reflect stronger growth or lost institutional confidence.

Katharine Neiss PGIM Credit Deputy Head of Global Economics 19:06

ECB likely won't hike beyond 2.5%

She expects the ECB to hike to 2.5%, the top of its neutral range, but her base case is that it will not hike beyond that. Resilient European growth and energy-driven inflation create upside risk to rates, while the recent bond-market tightening does some of the ECB's work.

Katharine Neiss PGIM Credit Deputy Head of Global Economics 22:16

French bond risk undercounted, spreads vulnerable

French political risk is undercounted by markets. She expects attention to shift to France from November, and with polling favoring the candidate tied to debt cancellation and French markets less disciplined, French government bond spreads look vulnerable.

Michael Haigh Head of Commodities Research, Societe Generale 24:57

Treasury funding glut pressures long-end yields

The Treasury buyback plan did not address the shift from abundant cheap funding to a world where AI-related funding needs and U.S. deficits compete for capital. Markets are rightly worried there is no credible plan to bring deficits down, leaving long-end Treasury yields under upward pressure.

Michael Haigh Head of Commodities Research, Societe Generale 26:27

BOJ credibility doubts pressure yen

Treasury Secretary Bessent's apparent influence over the Bank of Japan raises questions about BOJ independence, laying bare a credibility problem in Japanese monetary policy and explaining why the yen has been under pressure.

Chris Wright US Energy Secretary 27:41

U.S. gasoline prices to fall soon

U.S. gasoline prices are expected to head down in the coming weeks as the administration expands domestic refining capacity and changes regulations, while diesel remains a harder problem.

Michael Haigh Head of Commodities Research, Societe Generale 39:03

Gold attractive on uncertainty, record ETF buying

Gold is an attractive buy amid massive market uncertainty; traditional drivers such as real rates and the dollar matter less right now, and record ETF buying in August shows demand returning.

Michael Haigh Head of Commodities Research, Societe Generale 39:40

Copper deficit supports higher prices

Copper is already in a supply deficit and faces additional demand from military spending, including aircraft carriers and drones, on top of electrification; El Nino-related droughts and flooding also constrain mine supply.

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This Bloomberg Markets video, published September 10, 2026, features Katharine Neiss, Michael Haigh, Chris Wright discussing U.S. 10-year Treasury yield, Eurozone Interest Rates, French Government Bonds (OATs), TLT, FXY, UGA, GLD, COPPER. 8 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Katharine Neiss, Michael Haigh, Chris Wright · Tickers: U.S. 10-year Treasury yield, Eurozone Interest Rates, French Government Bonds (OATs), TLT, FXY, UGA, GLD, COPPER