Exchange Rate: We don't know how much it will fall during a downtrend | Chesley Investment Advisory Executive Director Park Se-ik [Womae Shinbak / 26.09.10.Thu]

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  September 10, 2026 at 10:00  |  25:23  |  Chesley Investment Advisory (체슬리투자자문)
Speakers
Park Se-ik — CEO, ex-Chief Strategist

Summary

Park Se-ik reviews FX, Korean government funds, HDD pricing, and leveraged ETF speculation. He warns that USD/KRW forecasts are only expectations and the downside could overshoot, proposes a crash-buying strategy for Korean stocks, highlights AI-driven HDD price strength, and argues leveraged products like KORU should be banned.

  • Reviews news that Samsung Electronics and SK hynix dollar conversion effects are fading and US investment may push USD/KRW higher, but Park says no one knows how far the downtrend may go.
  • Discusses government fund constraints and proposes keeping about 10 trillion won in MMFs to buy Korean stocks during crashes and sell after 20% gains.
  • Recaps AI data-center-driven SSD and HDD price surges, supply constraints, China surveillance-camera demand, and Seagate ending some low-capacity HDD production.
  • Argues HDD and SSD are becoming complementary during aggressive AI infrastructure investment.
  • Criticizes KORU 3x ETF as casino-like roulette, showing severe decay despite KOSPI gains over several years.
  • Urges regulators to ban 3x leveraged products and also single-stock 2x leveraged ETFs.
Ideas
Park Se-ik CEO, ex-Chief Strategist 13:26
USD/KRW downside could overshoot; forecasts unreliable.
Park argues that the market's apparent fair-value range of 1,300-1,400 won per dollar is only an expectation, not a reliable forecast. Just as USD/KRW overshot to 1,560 on the way up, the current downtrend could overshoot on the downside and nobody knows how far it will fall. He advises not to trust newspaper FX forecasts and to treat the 1,300-1,400 range only as a reference point.
USD/KRW MED
Park Se-ik CEO, ex-Chief Strategist 15:24
Buy Korean stocks on crashes, sell 20%.
Park proposes that Korea's government fund keep roughly 10 trillion won in short-term assets such as MMFs, then buy Korean stocks during crashes and sell after about a 20% gain. He argues crashes have appeared about once a year, so this could generate more than 60% cumulative return over three years with high reliability.
EWY MED
Park Se-ik CEO, ex-Chief Strategist 18:59
AI spillover makes HDDs complementary, prices rise.
Park highlights that AI data-center SSD demand and supplier focus on data-center NAND are constricting PC SSD supply, pushing SSD prices sharply higher and causing demand to spill into HDDs. China's surveillance-camera storage demand is recovering, long-term HDD supply has been shrinking, and Seagate has ended some low-capacity products. He emphasizes that HDD and SSD are becoming complements during aggressive AI data-center investment, supporting HDD prices.
HDD manufacturers STX MED
Park Se-ik CEO, ex-Chief Strategist 20:23
Avoid KORU; leveraged decay resembles gambling.
Park argues KORU, the 3x leveraged South Korea ETF, is not an investment but casino-style roulette. Despite KOSPI rising from 2,600 in 2018 and 3,300 in 2021 to near 6,800-7,000, KORU is still only $24 versus $36 at those prior highs and once fell to $3, showing leverage and volatility decay. He says Korean retail money flowing into KORU resembles illegal gambling and the government should ban 3x leveraged ETFs.
KORU HIGH
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This Chesley Investment Advisory (체슬리투자자문) video, published September 10, 2026, features Park Se-ik discussing USD/KRW, EWY, HDD manufacturers, STX, KORU. 4 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Park Se-ik  · Tickers: USD/KRW, EWY, HDD manufacturers, STX, KORU