Stocks and Bonds Rally on US-Iran Deal | The Opening Trade 6/15/2026

Summary

Global markets staged a relief rally after the US and Iran agreed to an interim deal to end their conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Stocks surged, bond yields fell, and oil plunged to three-month lows. European equities led the gains, with airlines, consumer cyclicals, and banks outperforming while energy names dropped. Central bank meetings this week—including the Fed's first press conference under Chair Kevin Warsh—remain a key focus. The G7 leaders summit in France and an escalating US-Anthropic AI dispute added geopolitical and tech overtones.

• US-Iran interim deal triggers risk-on rally; details remain incomplete but Strait of Hormuz reopening expected.
• Oil drops ~5% on supply normalization hopes; energy stocks decline, airlines and consumer cyclicals surge.
• European equities head for record highs, with DAX and Euro Stoxx 50 up nearly 2%.
• US dollar falls, but strategist expects rebound on US oil dominance and fiscal inflation pressures.
• Semiconductors get a boost from helium supply relief through the Strait and ongoing AI earnings strength.
• UBS strategist sees near-term Europe rally led by consumer cyclicals and banks, but warns on AI enablers' earnings plateau risk.
• Fed, Bank of England, and Bank of Japan meetings this week; Fed expected to hold with hawkish bias.
• Anthropic blocks foreign access to its most advanced AI models after unprecedented US government order.