Name: The Reason We Don't Let Go of Samjeon-Nix Despite Bubble Controversy! Conditions for KOSPI 12,000 | Hong Seonae, Kim Hanjin 3PRO TV Economists
Uploaded: 2026-06-15T08:59:00+00:00
Duration: 2499 s

Speakers

Kim Han-jin — Economist

Summary

Economist Kim Hanjin argues that the KOSPI's rally is earnings-driven and not a bubble, with semiconductor giants Samsung Electronics and SK hynix deeply undervalued relative to their profit weight. He sees a path to KOSPI 12,000 as that gap closes. On macro, he expects crude oil to fall to $75 on peace in the Strait of Hormuz and the Fed to cut rates next year amid a slowing US economy. He also defends US tech stocks as attractive.

KOSPI trading at 7.5x P/E with upside to 12,000 based on semiconductor earnings catch-up.
Samsung Electronics and SK hynix command 66% of KOSPI earnings but only 52% market cap, implying room for rerating.
Semiconductor sector PER of 6x and strong ROE suggest the rally is not a bubble.
Crude oil expected to decline to $75/bbl by year-end as Hormuz supply normalizes post-ceasefire.
Fed seen holding rates in 2025 and cutting in 2026 as real consumption turns negative and the economy softens.
US Magnificent Seven stocks supported by 200% EPS growth, modest multiple expansion, and high free cash flow yields.
Long-term risk flagged: liquidity fatigue could eventually trigger a severe correction, but not yet.

Ideas

Kim Han-jin Economist 2:56

Samsung and SK hynix deeply undervalued

Samsung Electronics and SK hynix together account for 66% of KOSPI total earnings but only 52% of market cap. Their valuation multiples are low (semiconductor sector PER 6x, ROE 20-30%), and the gap between earnings weight and market cap weight implies significant upside as the valuation normalizes. The stocks are not in a bubble; the rally is earnings-driven and the sector's ROE remains high.

Kim Han-jin Economist 10:51

WTI crude to fall to $75

Crude oil prices are set to decline toward $75 per barrel WTI by year-end as the Strait of Hormuz reopens and supply normalizes after the ceasefire. Demand was not exceptionally strong pre-war (average $64 WTI) and physical supply disruption accounted for about 14% of global supply. With gradual normalization, oil should retreat from panic highs, easing inflation pressures.

Kim Han-jin Economist 23:38

Fed cuts rates next year, buy bonds

The Fed will likely remain on hold this year and pivot to rate cuts next year as the US economy slows. Real personal consumption spending has been negative for three months, savings rate at a three-year low, and wage growth is cooling. With supply-side inflation (oil) fading, demand-side inflation is easing, allowing the Fed to cut rates in 2026 to support a softening economy.

Kim Han-jin Economist 26:50

US tech stocks attractive, not bubbly

US big tech (Magnificent Seven) and the broader technology sector are not in a bubble. Over the past three years, the M7's EPS has grown nearly 200%, while the P/E multiple rose only modestly. The sector's ROE is 30-34%, and free cash flow generation remains powerful. Currently the tech sector trades at 24.6x P/E, well below its post-2018 average of 28x, leaving room for further appreciation.

Kim Han-jin Economist 31:32

KOSPI has 40% upside to 12,000

The KOSPI's current 7.5x trailing P/E and Korea's semiconductor sector PER of 6x are not a bubble but supported by earnings. The combined market cap weight of Samsung Electronics and SK hynix is only 52% of the index while their earnings contribution is 66%, creating a valuation gap. As this gap closes, the KOSPI could rise 40% from current 8,500 to around 12,000, aligning with a 10-12x PER band and a PBR of 2.4 times, justified by Korea's sustainable ROE of about 15%.

The Reason We Don't Let Go of Samjeon-Nix Despite Bubble Controversy! Conditions for KOSPI 12,000 | Hong Seonae, Kim Hanjin 3PRO TV Economists

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