MacroVoices #520 Michael Every: USD Stablecoins in The Age of Economic Statecraft
Summary
- The "Economic Statecraft" Era: The Trump 2.0 administration (2026) is subordinating the Federal Reserve to the Treasury. The goal is not "low rates for all" but targeted financing for re-industrialization.
- The Stablecoin Revolution: Every predicts a massive shift where US Dollar Stablecoins replace the Eurodollar system. This allows the US to export inflation, fund T-bills with foreign capital ("trillions"), and bypass traditional banks.
- Domestic Industrial Renaissance: Unlike previous cycles driven by imports, freight data now shows increased internal movement of goods within the US, signaling genuine re-industrialization.
- Geopolitical "Blocks": A potential bifurcation into a "USD Stablecoin Block" (US/Allies) and a "Gold/Resource Block" (China/Russia), with no interoperability between them.
Trade Ideas
The Semiconductor index (SMH) has been weak, and the entire market is waiting on Nvidia (NVDA) earnings. Nvidia is the linchpin. If it fails to perform, the "Mag 7" weakness will drag the entire S&P 500 lower. This is not a trade to front-run, but a signal to watch for broader market direction. WATCH for the earnings reaction to determine broad market exposure. A massive beat could reignite the AI bubble; a miss could crash the Nasdaq.
Every states that the US administration is likely to push "US Dollar Stablecoins" to fund the government, predicting "trillions" in inflows. He notes the "Clarity Act" is the key legislation to watch. If the US government sanctions stablecoins as the preferred tool for global trade and T-bill funding, the regulated infrastructure providers (custodians and issuers) become systemically important. Coinbase (COIN) is the primary regulated US entity facilitating USDC and institutional crypto infrastructure. LONG the infrastructure of the "Stablecoin Arms Race." The "Clarity Act" fails to pass or the Fed launches a CBDC that competes directly with private stablecoins.
Patrick Ceresna
Host/Derivatives Specialist
Patrick explicitly recommends shorting the June 2026 Euro futures contract (hedged with a call spread) to express a bullish US Dollar view. Michael Every argues that "Economic Statecraft" and the proliferation of USD stablecoins create a structural, non-cyclical bid for the Dollar. As global capital is forced into USD stablecoins to access trade and safety, the Euro loses its standing as a reserve alternative. SHORT the Euro (via FXE or futures) to play the structural USD strength. A sudden peace deal in Iran or a dovish pivot by the ECB could squeeze shorts.
Michael Every
Global Strategist, Rabobank
Every notes that freight companies are reporting a pickup in logistics *within* the US (internal shipping), rather than just imports from ports. This indicates the "re-industrialization" thesis is moving from theory to reality. If goods are being moved between US factories rather than just from Long Beach to warehouses, domestic logistics networks (Trucking and Rail) will see volume expansion independent of global trade health. LONG domestic US logistics and transport. A recession caused by high rates crushing consumer demand before the industrial base is fully built.
Patrick Ceresna
Host/Derivatives Specialist
Patrick notes that Uranium has put in a swing low and technicals are set up for a move higher, with slow stochastics aligning for a buy. The structural energy demand for AI and re-industrialization (mentioned by Every) requires baseload power. Nuclear remains the primary solution, keeping a floor under uranium prices despite broader market volatility. LONG Uranium miners/holders on the technical swing setup. A broad market "risk-off" event or an unwind of the AI trade could drag commodities down with equities.
Patrick Ceresna
Host/Derivatives Specialist
Crude oil has been resilient, holding above the 50-day moving average with "accumulated market" characteristics. Geopolitical tension (Iran) provides a premium. Despite the "threat" of peace or negotiation, the technical structure shows higher highs and higher lows. The market is pricing in supply constraints or conflict, making the trend bullish until proven otherwise. LONG Oil via ETFs or Futures. A definitive "no strike" announcement regarding Iran could cause a rapid liquidation of the war premium.
Michael Every
Global Strategist, Rabobank
Every is skeptical that Gold can coexist as a primary reserve asset if the US successfully launches a dominant USD Stablecoin ecosystem. If the US digitizes the dollar and offers yield on stablecoins (backed by T-bills), the utility of Gold as a non-yielding store of value diminishes for US allies. Gold becomes the currency of the "opposing block" (China/Russia), limiting its liquidity in Western markets. NEUTRAL/WATCH. Patrick also notes Gold is in a consolidation phase after a violent correction. If the USD Stablecoin project fails or trust in the US government collapses, Gold would likely skyrocket.
Up Next
This Macro Voices video, published February 19, 2026, features Patrick Ceresna, Michael Every discussing NVDA, SMH, COIN, FXE, ODFL, JBHT, UNP, URA, CCJ, USO, GLD. 7 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Patrick Ceresna, Michael Every · Tickers: NVDA, SMH, COIN, FXE, ODFL, JBHT, UNP, URA, CCJ, USO, GLD