US House Defies Trump on Canada Tariffs | The Asia Trade 2/12/2026
Speakers
Summary
- Macro Context: The US labor market showed resilience with 130k jobs added in January (healthcare/education led), pushing unemployment down to 4.3%. However, money markets are pricing out rate cuts until July 2026, causing Treasury yields to rise.
- The "AI Scare" Trade: A specific rotation is occurring where investors are dumping sectors perceived as vulnerable to AI disruption. This started with Wealth Management and Software, and has now spread to Real Estate Services (double-digit declines) and Gaming.
- Sector Rotation: Investors are fleeing "AI Losers" (disrupted services) and "AI CapEx Spenders" (Google) in favor of "AI Enablers" (TSMC, Memory) and "Hard Assets" (Caterpillar, Gold) that cannot be automated away.
- Geopolitics: Trade tensions are escalating. The US House symbolically rejected Trump's Canada tariffs, but Trump is privately considering exiting the USMCA, threatening the Mexican economy (auto sector). Meanwhile, Japan is seeing increased shareholder activism (Elliott/Toyota), supporting the governance reform thesis.
Trade Ideas
Microsoft stock has been beaten up alongside other software names due to fears of AI replacing human workflows. Forrest argues MSFT holds the "data repository for most businesses around the world." Unlike generic software, MSFT's moat is the data itself. It will not get "vibe coded out of existence." The sell-off is an overreaction; MSFT is a value-add company on sale. Enterprise spending slowdown or faster-than-expected AI agent adoption bypassing SaaS UIs.
Today is the deadline for Toyota's tender offer to take its unit private; Elliott Management is pushing back, arguing the offer is too cheap. This is a test case for Japanese Corporate Governance. Activists like Elliott are "hunting big game" in Japan. If Toyota is forced to pay more or restructure, it signals that shareholder value is finally paramount in Japan. Bullish on the value-unlocking theme within the Toyota group and broader Japanese equities. Toyota management digs in and refuses to negotiate, dampening the governance reform narrative.
Jonker identifies TSMC as a core holding despite broader tech volatility. Regardless of which hyperscaler or software company wins, they all require advanced manufacturing. "All AI roads lead to them." They are the ultimate enabler. Long the "picks and shovels" of the AI hardware cycle. Geopolitical tension in Taiwan or supply chain disruptions.
The market is panic-selling companies perceived as "AI Disruptable" (Software, Services). Investors should seek "Non-AI Risk Trades"—companies with hard assets or complex pipelines that AI cannot easily replicate. Caterpillar (Heavy Machinery) and AstraZeneca (Pharma Pipeline) represent physical/complex value that is safe from the "AI Scare" narrative. Buy high-quality "Real World" companies as a defensive play against the AI disruption narrative. Global economic slowdown hurting industrials (CAT) or drug trial failures (AZN).
The US regulatory environment has shifted to "blowing wind in our sails" (pro-crypto). Traditional banks are already using Ethereum private chains. We are at the end of a "debt monetary regime super cycle." As trust in centralized institutions cracks, decentralized trust (Ethereum) gains value. The shift from "startup mode" to "mainstream finance adoption" is accelerating due to political support. Ethereum is the "Mainstream Moment" play for institutional finance. Quantum computing risks (though Lubin dismisses this for ETH), or regulatory reversals.
Elfreda Jonker
Investment Specialist, Alphinity Investment Management
Retail sales are stalling, delinquency rates are rising, and inflation remains sticky. While the labor market headline number was good, the underlying data shows stress (low-income workers, student debt). The "soft landing" narrative ignores the bifurcation where the consumer is tapped out. Underweight Consumer Discretionary sectors. Wages rise faster than inflation, reigniting spending power.
Kim Forrest
CIO, Bokeh Capital Partners
Alphabet issued a 100-year bond, signaling a need for massive, cheap capital without immediate repayment pressure. Forrest notes that LLMs (OpenAI, etc.) are attacking Google's core business: Search. Users want answers, not a list of links. Google must spend heavily to defend its moat against a paradigm shift, making its future cash flows less certain than in the past. The core business model is under direct threat; the 100-year bond signals management uncertainty about the timeline for AI ROI. Google successfully transitions search to an AI-first model without destroying margins.
Paul Allen
Reporter, Bloomberg
Australian miners (Northern Star) reported 41% profit increases due to soaring gold prices. Gold miners are currently printing cash due to the disconnect between fixed costs and record spot prices. Miners are a leveraged play on the high gold price environment. Drop in spot gold prices or rising energy costs squeezing margins.
Kim Forrest
CIO, Bokeh Capital Partners
There is concern about whether chipmakers can meet demand, but the memory market is an oligopoly with few players. Whether the market demands "Training Chips" (Nvidia) or "Inference Chips" (for running models), *both* require massive amounts of memory. Demand is agnostic to *which* AI chip wins. High demand + limited competition (Moat) = Bullish for memory makers (implies MU / SK HYNIX). Cyclical downturn in consumer electronics dampening non-AI demand.
Up Next
This Bloomberg Markets video, published February 12, 2026, features Kim Forrest, Lisa Du, Elfreda Jonker, Joe Lubin, Paul Allen discussing MSFT, TM, TSM, AZN, CAT, ETH, XLY, GOOGL, GDX, SOXX. 9 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Kim Forrest, Lisa Du, Elfreda Jonker, Joe Lubin, Paul Allen · Tickers: MSFT, TM, TSM, AZN, CAT, ETH, XLY, GOOGL, GDX, SOXX