Betsey Stevenson

Professor of Economics, University of Michigan
@BetseyStevenson · tracked since Mar 2026
Calls 1 1 Posts tracked · 0.0/day
Calls
7d 0
30d 0
90d 1
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XLY short -2.1%
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XLY ×1
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XLY short 2 months ago
Win Rate 0% Long 0 Short 1
Win Rate
7d 100%
30d 100%
90d —
Average Return -2.1% Long Return - Short Return -2.1%
Average Return
7d +2.0%
30d +4.7%
90d —
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XLY Consumer... Consumer Discretion...
Short
Mar 07
$114.44
-2.1%
Payrolls fell by 90,000. Stevenson notes that if you subtract private sector healthcare and education, the US has seen "negative job growth" for 11 of the last 13 months. The consumer is being hit by a "double whammy": rising gas prices (up $0.50/gallon) and a deteriorating labor market. Discretionary spending power is evaporating as inflation persists (driven by tariffs) while employment weakens. This is the definition of stagflation, which is toxic for consumer cyclical stocks. SHORT. The consumer is tapped out and losing employment leverage. Federal stimulus checks or aggressive rate cuts by the Fed to stave off recession.
Payrolls fell by 90,000. Stevenson notes that if you subtract private sector healthcare and education, the US has seen "negative job growth" for 11 of the last 13 months. The consumer is being hit by a "double whammy": rising gas prices (up $0.50/gallon) and a deteriorating labor market. Discretionary spending power is evaporating as inflation persists (driven by tariffs) while employment weakens. This is the definition of stagflation, which is toxic for consumer cyclical stocks. SHORT. The consumer is tapped out and losing employment leverage. Federal stimulus checks or aggressive rate cuts by the Fed to stave off recession.
Consumer
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