Elfreda Jonker 2.9 4 ideas

Retail sales are stalling, delinquency rates are rising, and inflation remains sticky. While the labor market headline number was good, the underlying data shows stress (low-income workers, student debt). The "soft landing" narrative ignores the bifurcation where the consumer is tapped out. Underweight Consumer Discretionary sectors. Wages rise faster than inflation, reigniting spending power.

Jonker identifies TSMC as a core holding despite broader tech volatility. Regardless of which hyperscaler or software company wins, they all require advanced manufacturing. "All AI roads lead to them." They are the ultimate enabler. Long the "picks and shovels" of the AI hardware cycle. Geopolitical tension in Taiwan or supply chain disruptions.

The market is panic-selling companies perceived as "AI Disruptable" (Software, Services). Investors should seek "Non-AI Risk Trades"—companies with hard assets or complex pipelines that AI cannot easily replicate. Caterpillar (Heavy Machinery) and AstraZeneca (Pharma Pipeline) represent physical/complex value that is safe from the "AI Scare" narrative. Buy high-quality "Real World" companies as a defensive play against the AI disruption narrative. Global economic slowdown hurting industrials (CAT) or drug trial failures (AZN).