Name: Trader Called 5% Yields—Now Predicts 6%, $60 Oil, $100K Bitcoin | Todd Horwitz
Uploaded: 2026-09-18T23:42:39+00:00
Duration: 2072 s

Speakers

Todd Horwitz — Founder, bubbatrading.com

Summary

Todd Horwitz, founder of BubbaTrading.com, joins David Lin to discuss his bearish oil trade, forecast for the 10-year Treasury yield to reach 6%, and expectations for a stock-market sell-off. He remains a long-term, hedged stock investor but is looking to short the market as a trader, and he is bullish Bitcoin and gold while expecting the diesel crack spread to mean-revert. The conversation also covers Fed policy, inflation, credit stress, and why he dismisses triple witching.

Horwitz remains short oil, expecting a fear premium unwind toward the low $60s or $70s.
He forecasts the 10-year Treasury yield could hit 6%, possibly by year-end.
He is long stocks as a hedged investor but wants to short the S&P 500 as a trader soon.
He is bullish Bitcoin toward $100,000 if $75,000 support holds.
He prefers buying gold over shorting it, seeing a base near current levels.
He sees the record diesel crack spread as likely to mean-revert.
He expects another Fed hike and discusses inflation, credit stress, and market meltdown risk.
He dismisses triple witching as not market-moving.

Ideas

Todd Horwitz Founder, bubbatrading.com 0:00

Oil is a fear trade heading lower.

Horwitz remains short oil and has added to the short. He believes current oil prices are a fear trade driven by the Iran war rather than demand, pointing to backwardation with next September oil around $74 versus November around $96. He cites weak demand, a global oil glut, and a record diesel crack spread that is several standard deviations above normal, and expects a war settlement to remove the fear premium. He targets the low $60s to $70s and says he has an exit point.

Todd Horwitz Founder, bubbatrading.com 0:17

10-year Treasury yield heading to 6%.

Horwitz expects the US 10-year Treasury yield to rise to 6% or above, possibly by year-end, and calls it roughly a 50/50 chance. He argues bond and note futures are collapsing with more downside, there is huge demand to borrow money, and the Fed and Treasury are in a no-win position because of excessive debt, unprofitable companies, and a K-shaped economy. He thinks a market meltdown may be needed to reset rates.

Todd Horwitz Founder, bubbatrading.com 7:55

Diesel crack spread set to mean-revert.

Horwitz highlights the diesel crack spread at an all-time high, about four or five standard deviations from the mean. He sees a high probability of a stiff sell-off across the oil complex to bring the crack spread back in line, which supports his bearish oil view and lower diesel/food inflation pressures.

Todd Horwitz Founder, bubbatrading.com 12:52

Buy bond futures at 6% yield.

Horwitz says he will buy Treasury bond futures if the 10-year yield reaches 6% by year-end. He expects major economic issues to force a capitulation in bonds and views that yield level as a buying opportunity, even though he expects yields to rise first.

Todd Horwitz Founder, bubbatrading.com 22:17

Always long stocks, hedged; buy panics.

As an investor, Horwitz says he is always long and 100% invested in stocks. He uses an automatic hedging model and accumulates more stock whenever the market breaks by a set percentage, accepting a 3–5% maximum daily risk because he wants to buy panic sell-offs and capture the market's long-term upward drift of about 8.5% year-over-year. He only sells if a company's fundamentals permanently change.

Todd Horwitz Founder, bubbatrading.com 31:35

Bitcoin to $100K if 75K holds.

Horwitz liked Bitcoin between $75,000 and $82,000 and thought $82,000 was a sell, but now expects it to break above $82,000. He says as long as $75,000 holds, Bitcoin has a good chance to reach $100,000 by the next interview. He sees Bitcoin rallying while defying the bond and equity markets, has built a nice range after coming from the $60,000s to the $80,000s, and views the recent pullback as over.

Todd Horwitz Founder, bubbatrading.com 32:56

Gold bottomed; prefer buying over selling.

Horwitz does not want to be short gold even with rising yields. He believes gold has already priced in the rate hikes and yield move after a roughly 30% sell-off from its $5,500 spike, has found a base near current levels, and is starting to work higher. He sees limited downside, possibly not below $3,600–3,700, and would much rather be a buyer than a seller here.

Trader Called 5% Yields—Now Predicts 6%, $60 Oil, $100K Bitcoin | Todd Horwitz

Summary

Ideas

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