Fed and Bank of Japan raised rates, so why did stocks rise? Buy or sell stocks ahead of Chuseok? | Director Lee Young-hoon

Fed and Bank of Japan raised rates, so why did stocks rise? / Buy or sell stocks ahead of Chuseok? | Director Lee Young-hoon
Watch on YouTube ↗  |  September 18, 2026 at 23:30  |  20:49  |  815 Money Talk (815머니톡)
Speakers
Lee Young-hoon — Director

Summary

Lee Young-hoon, a director at iM Securities Seoul Financial Center, discusses the Fed and Bank of Japan rate decisions, why markets have taken higher rates in stride, and how to position around the Chuseok holiday. He argues the US 10-year yield is likely to settle near 5%, sees oil risk as potentially contained by an Iran conflict resolution, and is constructive on semiconductors, October liquidity, and adding equity exposure. He also downplays immediate yen carry-trade unwind risk.

  • Fed and Bank of Japan rate hikes passed without a major market shock.
  • Lee sees the 10-year US Treasury yield more likely to anchor near 5% than fall below it.
  • He views oil risk as potentially contained if the Iran conflict moves toward resolution.
  • He expects Micron earnings and semiconductor guidance to remain strong, with shortages lasting longer.
  • October liquidity ahead of US midterms is seen as supportive for US equities.
  • He is increasing equity exposure and does not plan to cut stocks before Chuseok.
  • He downplays immediate yen carry-trade unwind risk.
Ideas
Lee Young-hoon Director 2:31
Ten-year yields likely anchor near 5%
Lee argues the market is adapting to a mid-rate era: the US 10-year Treasury yield reaching 5% is more likely to settle around that level than fall back below it. The rise is driven by oil, hyperscaler long-term debt supply crowding out Treasuries, and foreign selling rather than only inflation, and the Fed's dot plot does not imply a continuous hiking cycle, so this yield level need not break the stock market.
US10Y MED
Lee Young-hoon Director 10:40
Micron guidance likely strong despite AI noise
Lee expects Micron's September 29 earnings and forward guidance to be strong because semiconductor shortages are likely to persist, with Citi seeing them lasting to 2031, and recent AI regulatory and political noise has reversed in a more supportive direction.
MU HIGH
Lee Young-hoon Director 10:58
Semiconductor shortage supports sector through 2031
Lee argues the semiconductor shortage is not ending soon, citing Citi's view that shortages may last to 2031, while AI regulatory fears have been reversed. This supports the broad semiconductor and AI supply-chain complex.
SMH MED
Lee Young-hoon Director 11:41
October liquidity boosts US stocks
Lee expects October government liquidity, released ahead of US midterm elections, to significantly boost liquidity and support US stock prices, making the US market a beneficiary of the political spending cycle.
SPY MED
Lee Young-hoon Director 12:51
Korean stocks may see short-term liquidity rally
Lee notes that the Bank of Korea has raised the possibility of an additional hike due to FX pressures ahead of the midterms, but he thinks Korean stocks could still see a short-term liquidity-driven rally despite those concerns.
EWY LOW
Lee Young-hoon Director 13:34
Oil risk likely contained by Iran resolution
Lee sees oil risk as potentially contained because Trump wants to exit the Iran conflict before the midterms, Iran is signaling openness to negotiations, and Saudi Arabia is unlikely to help prolong the war. That suggests the geopolitical premium in oil may fade rather than produce a sustained spike.
WTI MED
Lee Young-hoon Director 18:47
Adding equity exposure through Chuseok
Lee says he has been increasing stock exposure, reducing cash, and rebalancing existing positions rather than cutting risk before Chuseok, because the macro and geopolitical backdrop is likely to resolve without a major shock.
Equities HIGH
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This 815 Money Talk (815머니톡) video, published September 18, 2026, features Lee Young-hoon discussing US10Y, MU, SMH, SPY, EWY, WTI, Equities. 7 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Lee Young-hoon  · Tickers: US10Y, MU, SMH, SPY, EWY, WTI, Equities