Ideas
Fed risk lifts long-term yields
The DOJ pressure on the Fed threatens independence and is not priced into inflation or term premium. Even if Powell does not flinch, pressure can change the Fed's reaction function, keep term premium elevated, and lead to a steeper curve and higher long-term rates, which raises the cost of equity.
Fed risk lifts long-term yields
The DOJ pressure on the Fed threatens independence and is not priced into inflation or term premium. Even if Powell does not flinch, pressure can change the Fed's reaction function, keep term premium elevated, and lead to a steeper curve and higher long-term rates, which raises the cost of equity.
Weaker dollar, higher equity volatility
The cost of equity is driven by long-term rates and risk premium rather than the Fed funds rate. With term premium rising, he sees a common theme of a weaker dollar and higher equity volatility.
Weaker dollar, higher equity volatility
The cost of equity is driven by long-term rates and risk premium rather than the Fed funds rate. With term premium rising, he sees a common theme of a weaker dollar and higher equity volatility.
Oil upside limited despite Iran risk
Iran is a larger oil supplier than Venezuela, but the Strait of Hormuz is hard to close for long and the oil market is already in a surplus of about 1.9 million barrels per day. That should limit the upside spike in oil despite geopolitical risk.
Gold upside risks despite froth
Gold is supported by a broader diversification away from U.S. and developed-market assets, central-bank and private-sector demand, Fed independence risk, and Iran. There may be near-term consolidation and some froth, but the risks are clearly to the upside.
AI profitability is key 2026 question
AI will be transformational, but the key question for 2026 is whether it will be profitable. More models requiring less compute could pressure margins for AI companies, including hardware/semiconductors and software, so investors should watch non-tech companies that are AI consumers, such as commercial, business, professional services, and law firms.
Sell America: weaker dollar, higher yields
The U.S. has a sell-America tone: the long end is under pressure with 30-year yields approaching 5%, the dollar is on the back foot, and the dollar risk premium can widen if a dovish Fed chair is nominated while inflation remains sticky. He expects a weaker dollar and higher Treasury yields.
Gold upside likely, hedge crowded positioning
Gold has a confluence of supportive factors: a positive dollar risk premium, geopolitical tensions with Iran, and doubts about fiat currencies. He sees the next 10% upside as likely, but with positioning overwhelmingly positive, investors should look for downside protection because volatility may not be far away.
Oil geopolitical risk with short positioning
Oil has been in a selling pattern and positioning is tilted short, while geopolitics is taking center stage through Iran, Venezuela, and Russian supply. A Strait of Hormuz disruption would be a shock given positioning, and the likely scenario is reduced Iranian outflows or a temporary halt, creating upside risk.
Shipping rates risk Hormuz disruption
The shipping market is already strong, and an already elevated insurance-cost environment would become much worse if the Strait of Hormuz were disrupted. Shipping and freight rates would be highly exposed to that risk.
Chevron can raise Venezuela production
Chevron is the only U.S. company operating in Venezuela and produces more than 200,000 barrels a day there. It could raise production by 50% over the next 18 to 24 months, though longer-term investment depends on stability and legal frameworks.
Oil services benefit with contract-based risk
Oil service companies like Halliburton and SLB are excited about Venezuela opportunities because they work on contracts and can leave without taking the same long-term resource and capital risk as E&P companies. That contract structure makes them more positive on Venezuela exposure.
Favor oil services over E&P
E&P companies have hugely outperformed oil prices and face pressure to maintain dividends and avoid large investments, while oil service companies are contract-based, can leave, and take less risk. That makes service companies relatively more attractive than E&Ps.
Favor oil services over E&P
E&P companies have hugely outperformed oil prices and face pressure to maintain dividends and avoid large investments, while oil service companies are contract-based, can leave, and take less risk. That makes service companies relatively more attractive than E&Ps.
This Bloomberg Markets video, published January 12, 2026,
features Bhanu Baweja, Ven Ram, Nadia Martin Wiggin, Mitchell Fermen
discussing US Treasury Curve Steepener, US 30-year Treasuries, USD, Equity volatility, WTI, GLD, AI companies, Shipping/freight rates, CVX, HAL, SLB, OIH, XOP.
15 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers:
Bhanu Baweja,
Ven Ram,
Nadia Martin Wiggin,
Mitchell Fermen
· Tickers:
US Treasury Curve Steepener,
US 30-year Treasuries,
USD,
Equity volatility,
WTI,
GLD,
AI companies,
Shipping/freight rates,
CVX,
HAL,
SLB,
OIH,
XOP
