Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix: Massive Boon from AI Summit / The True Semiconductor Peak Arrives at 'This Time' | Director Lee Ju-yeon

Summary

Director Lee Ju-yeon downplays China's rejection of Samsung memory price hikes, arguing supply is so tight it hardly matters. He addresses Trump's new tariff but sees limited impact on Korea. The upcoming AI Summit in San Francisco with US big tech and Korean conglomerates is likely to produce concrete long-term contracts, providing a strong near-term catalyst for Korean memory stocks. Big tech capex continues to surge, driven by strong cloud revenue, and balance sheets are far healthier than the dot-com era, so the AI investment cycle has room to run. On memory cycle timing, Lee believes the DRAM price growth peak is a buying opportunity, not an end signal, and he expects a second-half 2026 rally in Samsung and SK Hynix, but advises reducing positions by Q1 2027 as new fab supply arrives.

• Chinese smartphone OEM resistance to Samsung DRAM price increases is dismissed because demand far exceeds supply, with fulfillment rates set to drop further.
• Trump 301 forced-labor tariff has upper limits and excludes critical items; impact on Korean firms seen as limited.
• AI Summit in SF (Anthropic, OpenAI, Nvidia, Broadcom, Korean groups) expected to yield large-scale, concrete long-term contracts, boosting Korean memory and data center plays.
• Big tech capex growth has been revised up to 98% for 2025, fueled by strong cloud revenue, and balance sheets are robust, so the investment cycle continues.
• Past dot-com era WorldCom comparison shows today's big tech finances are healthy, reducing bubble risk, with Samsung/SK Hynix playing the Cisco supplier role that historically rallied further.
• Memory cycle end will come only when supply shortages resolve; major new fabs arrive in 2027 and 2029, but 2027 supply will still be insufficient to meet demand.
• Lee advises riding the memory stock rally through H2 2026, with a plan to reduce exposure in early 2027 as new capacity begins to moderate the shortage.