Jensen Loves Open Source, Bubble Boi Shares Alpha, and I Have Fun Onchain

Summary

Thread Guy opens with a brief market scan and defense, crypto, and memory pain. He then interviews trader Bubble Boy, who reveals his best trading year ever thanks to AI. Bubble Boy lays out a bearish thesis on Nvidia due to hyperscaler vertical integration, criticizes Micron as the worst memory maker with unsustainable margins, and strongly advocates going heavily long the upcoming CXMT IPO as a deeply undervalued Chinese memory play.

• Markets open mixed: S&P slightly green, Nasdaq down; memory and crypto bleed; defense stocks rally.
• Bubble Boy attributes his best-ever trading year to deep technical knowledge of AI products and customers.
• He argues most future AI compute will shift away from Nvidia to hyperscalers' own ASICs (TPUs, Trainium, Meta), eroding Nvidia's margins.
• Memory growth is actually driven by commodity DRAM, not just HBM; commodity DRAM prices are skyrocketing.
• Micron is the lowest-quality memory maker with weak HBM but enjoys egregious margins; the market will eventually punish this.
• CXMT's IPO is massively mispriced relative to Micron, benefits from the same commodity DRAM boom, and Chinese semiconductor capital needs protect it from destructive competition.
• Crypto markets are down sharply; Bitcoin below 64K, Solana weak.