US Stocks Rise as Dollar Weakens and Precious Metals Rally | The Close 1/26/2026
Speakers
Dan Niles
— Founder & Portfolio Manager, Niles Investment Management
Amit Daryanani
— Senior Managing Director, Evercore ISI
Carlos Fernandez-Aller
— Bank of America
Ed Clissold
— Chief U.S. Strategist, Ned Davis Research
Joe Deaux
— Corporate and Economic State Crafting Reporter, Bloomberg
Nate Rempe
— CEO, Omaha Steaks
Jason Pride
— Chief of Investment Strategy and Research, Glenmede
Romaine Bostick
— Anchor, Bloomberg
Sarah Bianchi
— Senior Managing Director, Evercore ISI; Former Deputy US Trade Representative
Olga Kharif
— Senior Crypto Reporter, Bloomberg
Ben Zweig
— Founder, Revelio Labs
Summary
U.S. stocks closed higher led by large-cap technology, while the dollar weakened and gold and silver rallied amid debasement-trade talk. Investors positioned for a heavy week of Big Tech earnings and a Federal Reserve decision. Guests debated AI capex and financing risks, yen intervention, emerging markets, midterm policy risk, rare earths, Medicare Advantage reimbursement, labor/AI trends, and record beef prices.
- S&P 500 and large-cap tech rose while small caps lagged as investors awaited major earnings and the Fed.
- The dollar fell, gold topped $5,000, and silver hit records amid debasement-trade discussion.
- Dan Niles warned on META capex, private-credit AI financing, Japan bond risk, and Tesla's earnings setup.
- Evercore's Amit Daryanani was positive on Cisco and CoreWeave after Nvidia's investment.
- BofA's Carlos Fernandez-Aller was negative the dollar, positive EM/Brazil/Turkey/Korea, and wary of betting against USD/JPY intervention at 160.
- Ned Davis Research's Ed Clissold favored mid-caps over large-caps and highlighted industrials, with midterm policy creating sector risk.
- A U.S. rare earth deal with USA Rare Earth was discussed, and flat Medicare Advantage rates hit insurers after hours.
- Labor/AI trends and record beef prices from tight supply were also in focus.
Ideas
Tesla earnings clouded by robotaxi narrative
Tesla's auto numbers likely have to come down after the U.S. EV tax credit expired, but at elevated valuations the stock may trade more on Elon Musk's robotaxi and energy-storage narrative than on current fundamentals, leaving the earnings reaction unusually uncertain.
Avoid META on capex and no cloud
Niles would avoid META into earnings because its heavy AI capex is a focus and, unlike Google, Amazon, and Microsoft, it lacks a large cloud business to monetize capacity; it must build that business against established players. Ad numbers may be strong, but the stock's reaction to capex and monetization concerns is too uncertain.
Short private credit on AI funding stress
Niles has short positions in a basket of names associated with private credit because the pressures seen in Tricolor and First Brands are not over. He expects a major problem with one data-center financing deal by year-end because not every AI-linked name will get funding or win, and credit providers are more likely to suffer damage than AI equities that already trade at more discounted valuations.
Short JGBs on bond-market dislocation risk
Niles has shorts around Japan to hedge the portfolio because Japanese bond-market dislocation is a real risk: 40-year JGB yields rose 41 basis points in two days, and snap elections on February 8 add uncertainty. He expects further pressure when the bond market goes into conniptions.
Cisco upgrade on refresh and AI
Daryanani is positive on Cisco because it is in a major campus product refresh cycle, the first in eight years, while AI momentum is on track with about $3 billion of AI revenues and optical exposure. He thinks Cisco can sustain high single-digit sales growth, and its recurring security/collaboration subscriptions and diversified customer base reduce the old hardware cyclicality.
CoreWeave benefits from Nvidia backstop
Daryanani sees NVIDIA's additional $2 billion investment and guarantor role as a positive for CoreWeave: it smooths the duration mismatch in data-center leases, enables more financing, addresses a valuation mismatch, and gives CoreWeave a more diverse customer base beyond the big hyperscalers.
Don't bet against USD/JPY intervention
Fernandez-Aller says the coordinated U.S.-Japan intervention was the most effective he has seen in 20 years and may signal a Fed policy shift. With Japan's huge reserves and Fed support, authorities can defend the 160 level, so he will not bet against it.
Short dollar on policy shift
Fernandez-Aller is negative on the U.S. dollar and expects it to correct at a similar speed to the start of last year. He argues the coordinated U.S.-Japan intervention may signal a Fed policy shift toward accepting a weaker dollar, though the main risk is a risk-off shock that forces liquidation of the world's long-dollar asset positions.
EM is favored as dollar weakens
Fernandez-Aller thinks this may be the year for emerging markets because a weaker dollar and high rates with improving fundamentals should support the asset class; he specifically favors Brazil, Turkey, and Korea.
Brazil, Turkey offer high rates, improving fundamentals
Within emerging markets, Fernandez-Aller is particularly positive on Brazil and Turkey because they combine very high rates with improving fundamentals, making them attractive as the dollar weakens.
Korea is a favored EM market
Korea is one of Bank of America's favorite emerging-market markets. Fernandez-Aller notes that after what happened in Japan, pressure from China on the currency will become bigger, an important dynamic to monitor alongside the favorable EM backdrop.
USA Rare Earth government-backed but early
Deaux says the U.S. government's $1.6 billion nonbinding funding agreement with USA Rare Earth supports a potential mine-to-magnet heavy rare earth chain: mining heavy rare earths at Round Top, Texas, converting oxides to metals via the LCM acquisition, and making permanent magnets. That would reduce U.S. reliance on China for defense-critical heavy rare earths, but commercial-scale production is not targeted until 2030 and build-out risks are significant.
Industrials benefit if economy holds up
Clissold highlights industrials as a sector that should do well if the economy does well, though he cautions that a mid-year macro pullback and their procyclical nature could offset that strength.
Favor mid-caps over large-caps
Clissold favors mid-caps over large-caps because mid-caps have underperformed and historically revert after lagging both small and large caps, an event that has happened only six times since 1979. Mid-caps also have more cyclical sector exposure, while large-cap indices are dominated by Mag 7 names that may face multiple compression in a higher-capex world.
Favor mid-caps over large-caps
Clissold favors mid-caps over large-caps because mid-caps have underperformed and historically revert after lagging both small and large caps, an event that has happened only six times since 1979. Mid-caps also have more cyclical sector exposure, while large-cap indices are dominated by Mag 7 names that may face multiple compression in a higher-capex world.
Beef prices stay high on tight supply
Rempe says beef demand is at an all-time high while supply is at an all-time low. The Trump administration's new dietary guidelines putting ribeye at the top of the pyramid should further drive demand and exacerbate already record beef prices.
Up Next
This Bloomberg Markets video, published January 26, 2026, features Dan Niles, Amit Daryanani, Carlos Fernandez-Aller, Joe Deaux, Ed Clissold, Nate Rempe discussing TSLA, META, BIZD, Japanese government bonds, CSCO, CoreWeave, USD/JPY, UUP, EEM, EWZ, TUR, EWY, USA Rare Earth, XLI, MDY, SPY, COW. 16 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Dan Niles, Amit Daryanani, Carlos Fernandez-Aller, Joe Deaux, Ed Clissold, Nate Rempe · Tickers: TSLA, META, BIZD, Japanese government bonds, CSCO, CoreWeave, USD/JPY, UUP, EEM, EWZ, TUR, EWY, USA Rare Earth, XLI, MDY, SPY, COW