Ideas
David Lin
Founder & Host, The David Lin Report / ex-Anchor, Kitco News
7:34
Giant Mining is funded copper play.
In a sponsored segment, David Lin highlights Giant Mining as one of the most interesting resource companies he follows. He notes it owns the Majuba Hill copper project in Nevada, a past-producing mine with existing infrastructure, best-ever drill intercepts, an expanded deposit, and a balance sheet funded for 2025 drilling. He points to copper's critical-resource status and the stock's 50% decline as reasons to do homework on BFGFF.
S&P 500 expensive at 22x forward earnings.
Ted says Oxbow's screens showed 12-14% of companies getting cheap during the selloff, but after the sharp April-May recovery the market is back to about 22x forward earnings and most companies are expensive again. He remains cautious/defensive and is not chasing broad U.S. equities at these valuations, though he acknowledges the market could go to 30x.
Long bond yields trail likely inflation.
Ted says investors cannot buy and hold the long bond. With long-bond yields around 4.5-4.75% and expected inflation of 3.5-5% over the next decade, the real return is poor. He also cites out-of-line U.S. debt levels and continued Treasury issuance as reasons to avoid long-duration Treasuries.
Short Treasuries are attractive cash-like holdings.
Oxbow holds all its Treasuries short-term, less than 20 months, because it provides a good place to park cash while looking for companies to buy. Ted is not worried about the downgrade for that portion and likes the yield being paid.
Oil correction sets up next-year rebound.
Ted notes oil has corrected from roughly $130 to $60 over three years and thinks the market is in the early stages of an opportunity. He argues the green push has faded, General Motors and others are returning to fossil-fuel vehicles, and the world will use more oil again, so oil should perk up over the next 12 months.
Chevron bought for 5% dividend.
Ted says Oxbow bought Chevron on a 5% dividend. The dividend is more than they get on short-term Treasuries, and the oil recovery thesis makes the energy major holdable through the current soft spot.
Matador bought for oil and dividend.
Ted says Oxbow bought a small oil company called Matador on a 3.5% dividend. It is part of the same early-stage oil recovery bet, with a dividend that helps them hold through volatility.
Tankers still needed for global oil.
Ted says Oxbow bought oil and gas tankers some time ago, particularly TK and Frontline. He likes them because they will still be shipping oil even during a soft spot, and demand from the rest of the world should keep them utilized.
Buying quality names when valuations enter zone.
Ted mentions that Oxbow owns Unilever, continues to buy McDonald's, and recently bought Visa about six weeks ago. These are examples of quality companies they buy when they enter the valuation zone they want to own.
Added to Pan American Silver cheaply.
Ted says Oxbow added to its silver stock, Pan American Silver, about a week earlier. The purchase fits their discipline of buying when the shares are cheap enough and offer a five-year opportunity.
Microsoft good but too expensive now.
Ted says Microsoft is a good company they have owned for years and it survived the tech bust by changing its business. However, they own it much cheaper and are not buying a lot now because it is too expensive at current prices.
Tech sector remains fairly expensive.
Ted says the rest of the technology group is still fairly expensive. Oxbow is therefore very selective about where and when it buys tech, rather than broadly adding to the sector.
Exxon dividend beats Treasuries for holding.
Ted cites Exxon as another oil major with a good dividend. He says investors can afford to hold it because the dividend yields more than short-term Treasuries, and it benefits from the expected oil recovery.
Small caps illiquid and not their day.
Ted says Oxbow does not emphasize small caps because they are not liquid enough for the size they trade. He adds that small caps outperform mainly when inflation is really high, which is not the current environment, so it is not their day.
Gold remains bullish over five years.
Ted says the gold move is not finished and Oxbow believes in it over the next five years. He warns a correction from $3,500 to $2,900 would be normal and says investors should not get shaken out; if you do not own gold, a weakening price is a chance to look.
Gold miners catching up via cash flow.
Ted says Oxbow owns some gold miners. Spot gold's rise feeds into miners' earnings with a lag, and miners' price-to-cash flow is low compared with 2011. The top producers still make a lot of money at $2,800-$3,000 gold, so they are catching up.
Junior gold miners may see M&A.
Ted expects many junior gold miners to be taken out in M&A, but he says Oxbow does not buy juniors because they are not good enough at assessing them. It is a setup to monitor rather than a position they are taking.
Energy is entering valuation buy zone.
In discussing sectors where companies are entering his buy zone, Ted names energy as one of the areas Oxbow likes. The view is tied to his oil recovery thesis and preference for energy companies with strong dividends.
Otis bought as cheaper special situation.
Ted says Oxbow recently bought a small position in Otis elevator as one of their special situations. Some companies like Otis are getting into a cheaper zone, so they took a look and started a position.
This The David Lin Report video, published May 19, 2025,
features David Lin, Ted Oakley
discussing BFGFF, SPY, TLT, SHY, WTI, CVX, MTDR, TK, FRO, UL, MCD, V, PAAS, MSFT, XLK, XOM, IWM, GLD, GDX, GDXJ, XLE, OTIS.
19 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers:
David Lin,
Ted Oakley
· Tickers:
BFGFF,
SPY,
TLT,
SHY,
WTI,
CVX,
MTDR,
TK,
FRO,
UL,
MCD,
V,
PAAS,
MSFT,
XLK,
XOM,
IWM,
GLD,
GDX,
GDXJ,
XLE,
OTIS
